Ravens @ Steelers, 4:30PM ET, Saturday
This will be the third meeting between these two teams this season. In Week 4, the Ravens beat a Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers in Pittsburgh, 17-14. But the Steelers got their revenge in Week 13 by beating the Ravens 13-10 in Baltimore behind Troy Polamalu’s strip of Joe Flacco late in the fourth quarter. It’s a little surprising to see oddsmakers open this game at 3.5 with the way the Ravens played last Sunday in Kansas City. One would think that they would have set the point spread at 3 and let the public play with it from there. I can’t see this line going up throughout the week. The public remembers that the Ravens should have beaten the Steelers twice this year and they tend to latch onto Wildcard teams because those teams’ performances are fresh in their memory. I bet this line closes at Steelers –3, or even –2.5.
THE ODDS: STEELERS –3.5 (36.5)
Packers @ Falcons, 8:00PM ET, Sunday
Home field advantage is usually worth three points, or so the logic goes. To see the Falcons opened at only –1.5 means one of two things: either oddsmakers believe that the Packers are the team to beat in this game or they believe that the public believes they’re the team to beat. (Or it could mean both, I guess.) Aaron Rodgers and the Pack are red-hot and the public views them as a legit Super Bowl contender. With the way James Starks ran last week, people are starting to buy into a Green Bay championship run, which means an upset this Sunday in Hotlanta. That said, the line has moved all the way up to 2.5 in the matter of 24 hours, so is Vegas getting heavy sharp action on the Falcons? It’s good to see that this matchup received the primetime spot on Saturday night because it should be the best game of the weekend.
THE ODDS: FALCONS –2.5 (45)
Seahawks @ Bears, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
It’s not surprising that the Seahawks are underdogs again but didn’t their upset of the defending champs last Sunday by them a little bit of respect? They already beat the Bears once in Chicago this year and yet they’re double-digit dogs. Neither oddsmakers nor the public (at least the majority of the public) believes that the Seahawks have two upsets in them, especially since they have to go on the road this week. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the line drops from 10 to 9.5 or even 9 by kickoff. I don’t get the sense that everyone is on the Bears’ bandwagon this year, so the public may take the points with the road dog. But if you like the Bears, it may be best to wait and see if the number comes off the all-important “10.”
THE ODDS: BEARS –10 (41)
Jets @ Patriots, 4:30PM ET, Sunday
The line opened at Patriots –9 and it almost immediately jumped to –9.5. But the spread has now dropped back to 9 so maybe Vegas is getting action coming in on both sides. It’s hard to imagine that the line wouldn’t move back up to 9.5 or even 10 by kickoff after the way the Patriots spanked the Jets 45-3 in their last meeting. But maybe Rex Ryan made believers out of people by the way he held Peyton Manning in check. In the end, I can’t see the public not backing New England and if the line stays below 10 then it would be a gift to Patriot backers.
THE ODDS: PATRIOTS –9 (45)
Honestly, this has been bothering me since Mike McCarthy took over as head coach of my beloved Packers, so the title of this post could easily read “Does Mike McCarthy have the killer instinct to go all the way?”
My historical evidence is purely anecdotal, but during the Holmgren/Favre Super Bowl years, it seemed like the Packers didn’t change their offensive strategy until they got up by three scores. Only then would they get a little more conservative and start working the clock with the running game. Several times over the past three seasons the Packers have had semi-control of a game only to let things slip away by playing too conservatively with a substantial amount of time remaining.
Case in point, towards the end of the second quarter of Sunday’s win over Philadelphia, leading 14-0, Green Bay just stopped the Eagles on a third-and-7. There was almost two minutes on the clock when Jason Avant was tackled on the Packers’ 11-yard line. With two timeouts remaining, McCarthy sat on his hands as the Eagles ran the clock down to 1:15 and kicked a field goal to cut the lead to 14-3.
Apparently the Chiefs’ inability to move the ball offensively against Baltimore on Sunday was not coordinator Charlie Weis’ fault, but head coach Todd Haley’s.
According to Bob Fescoe of 610 Sports in Kansas City, Haley stripped Weis of his play-calling duties during the second half of the Chiefs’ 30-7 loss to the Ravens on Sunday.
From the Sporting News:
Jason Whitlock, of Fox Sports, tweeted during the game that the Chiefs’ offensive miscues were a direct reflection of Haley’s play-calling.
For much of the latter half of the season, rumors persisted that Haley and Weis were having issues working together, and then the announcement came that Weis was leaving Kansas City following the end of the NFL regular season to become new Florida coach Will Muschamp’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach.
If the report is true, then Haley has some explaining to do. Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs’ most explosive offensive playmaker, received just three touches in the second half. As John Paulsen put it to me over Skype, “that’s inexcusable.”
For the game, Baltimore held Kansas City to just eight first downs and 53 yards passing. The Ravens are good, but they’re not that good. If there were an abrupt change in playcallers, then it would make sense that the Chiefs struggled mightily to move the ball during the second half.
In some respects, I don’t blame Haley for doing what he did. Hey, Weis isn’t going to be around next year and the offense had been a sinking ship ever since he announced that he was heading to Florida, so why wouldn’t Haley try to correct the problem before it was too late? After all, it is his team and he would ultimately be the one who had to answer to why the Chiefs once again lost another playoff game.
That said, it’s not fair to Matt Cassel and the rest of the players for Haley to make a move like that. The offense had worked under Weis all season and seeing as how the score was only 10-7 at halftime, it’s not like the Chiefs were out of the game. It makes you wonder if that was Haley’s plan from the start and as soon as the offense started sputtering, he was going to remove Weis as the playcaller.
We’ll see what Haley says in his final press conference later this week.
Last week, I suggested to our readers that they enter PlayoffBlitz’s playoff fantasy contest and the (playoff) Week 1 results are in.
Boy, second to last. I don’t have much to say in my defense other than that I wasn’t expecting Greg Freaking Jennings and Dwayne Freaking Bowe to combine for one Freaking catch for eight Freaking yards, or zero Freaking fantasy points.
I did pretty well at QB (Rodgers, 27 points) and RB (Rice, 17 points; Bush, 6 points — before inevitable injury), but WR really killed me. What’s worse is that Jennings now has a tasty matchup with ATL, but I can’t use him. I started him in the first week because PHI hasn’t been playing very good pass defense of late and I was afraid the Packers might get beat and I wouldn’t be able to get Jennings in my lineup. I’m also really excited about my last minute decision to swap out the Ravens (13 points) for the Saints (3 points). Thank you, New Orleans DT!
I guess it could be worse. I could have been one of the five teams that failed/forget to get a lineup in. Shame on you, guys. Shame on you. I can also take some solace that I beat Anthony Stalter (“Against the Spread”). Eat it, Anthony!
Looking ahead, the Packers seemingly have a nice passing matchup with the Falcons, while the Falcons have tough matchups all around. The Pats have been playing better pass defense of late, so it’s not necessarily a good idea to start any of the Jets, though the New England rush defense is still having some issues. Baltimore/Pittsburgh could be an ugly fantasy battle while Chicago/Seattle could have a few fantasy stars, at least on the Bears’ side of the ball.
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