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2010 Fantasy Football Preview: Sleeper RBs

ST. LOUIS - NOVEMBER 29:  Justin Forsett #20 of the Seattle Seahawks runs with the ball for yardage against the St. Louis Rams during their NFL game at Edward Jones Dome on November 29, 2009 in St. Louis, Missouri. The Seahawks defeated the Rams 27-17.  (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

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There are twenty running backs currently going in the first four rounds and 19 of them — Matt Forte excluded — are playing in what I refer to as ‘settled’ running back situations. We can move forward feeling pretty certain that these 19 RBs, barring injury, will get enough touches to be productive starting-caliber fantasy running backs.

But this piece isn’t about those guys. It’s about the rest of this year’s RB crop, or specifically RBs going in the 7th round or later: The Sleepers.

Below is a list of a few guys that I’m targeting later in drafts. They enter the 2010 season unproven, or unsettled in their respective situations, or even over the hill. I’ll list them in order of their current ADP at Antsports:

Brandon Jacobs (7.01)
In his worst season in three years, Jacobs finished as 2009’s RB31 on balky knees. He had them scoped in the offseason and says he feels better than ever. He’s just 28 years old and only has 779 career carries, so his mileage is pretty low given his age. Moreover, the Giants have a great offensive line and a solid passing attack to keep defenders out of the box. I’m expecting a bounce-back year from Jacobs, making him a nice RB2 for owners loading up on WRs early or a great RB3 on any roster.

Justin Forsett (7.05)
Pete Carroll has a history of using RBBC, so if he’s in a major timeshare I’m not sure Forsett is even worth his current draft position. But looking solely at his resume, there’s a lot to be excited about. He averaged 5.4 ypc last season, and had a couple of impressive performances against Arizona (22 touches, 149 yards, TD) and St. Louis (22 carries, 130 yards, 2 TD). He was also #6 in Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YCo/Att) which put him in some good company. Forsett’s prospects for 2010 depend less on his ability to beat out Julius Jones or Leon Washington and more on Carroll’s willingness to let him loose.

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Is Favre worse than LeBron?

Green Bay Packers fans mock Minnesota Vikings quarterback Brett Favre during the first quarter at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin on November 1, 2009. Favre returned to Lambeau Sunday for the first time in an opposing team's uniform. UPI/Brian Kersey Photo via Newscom

As a longtime Packer fan, the last few years of the Brett Favre saga have been particularly tough, especially his decision to sign with the Green Bay’s arch-rival. But the fitting end to the Vikings’ playoff run quenched every Packer fans thirst for karma, comeuppance, whatever. On one hand it would have been fun if Minnesota had crashed and burned to a 6-10 season, but there’s something wonderful about the fact that the Vikings were thisclose to a Super Bowl and their (adopted) prodigal son threw a horrible pass — in a season where he didn’t throw very many (for a change) — that sealed the hugely disappointing loss.

Now he’s doing his annual retirement dance again and appears to be stirring up the media to satisfy his need for attention.

Kevin Hench of Fox Sports argues that Favre’s antics are worse than LeBron’s.

Which is worse for a fan, death by a thousand cuts (Favre) or one swift decapitation (LeBron)?

Nice!

Favre put his loyal lady through hell for several offseasons, took up with a far-off mistress for a year, then came back to town with the one woman he had to know would most devastate his ex.

Compare that with LeBron. He didn’t waffle. His heart didn’t wander and return, wander and return, wander and return year after year. He was ramrod loyal to his betrothed. Until he wasn’t.

Blam.

The doors to the bedroom flew open, and there was South Beach astride LeBron. End of story.

LeBron announced his departure from Cleveland the way Rudy Giuliani conveyed that he was leaving wife Donna Hanover for a younger coworker with more upside. On TV.

It may not have been classy, but it was definitive.

For a month, LeBron has been annihilated for the way he handled “The Decision.” But Favre’s latest retirement reminds us there was actually a much worse way to handle things: the Brett Favre Way.

Sometime last summer, the tide turned against Favre. People still enjoy watching him play, but given his annual antics, far more football fans are rooting against him than ever before.

Other than in a few households in Wisconsin, he’s not as hated or reviled like LeBron is, because Favre’s history with Green Bay was far more successful than LeBron’s run in Cleveland. People are just sick of his act.

What’s worse — death by a thousand cuts or one swift decapitation?

Indeed.

(I love you, Aaron Rodgers.)

Melo to test free agency next summer?

Alex Kennedy of HOOPSWORLD reported this yesterday…

Sources close to the situation don’t expect Carmelo Anthony to sign an extension with the Denver Nuggets this summer.

Anthony is leaning towards testing free agency next offseason, said sources on the same day that the Nuggets let go of Warkentien, Chapman.

Sources say that Carmelo isn’t too worried about next season’s potential lockout and he wants to explore his options next summer.

The Nuggets have been pretty good the last few years, but pretty good doesn’t seem to cut it anymore. It’s possible that Anthony saw what LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh did this summer and wants to form a ‘Super Friends’ of his own, potentially hooking up with Amare Stoudemire and Chris Paul in New York. Paul said as much in his toast at Anthony’s wedding a few weeks ago.

With an aging Chauncey Billups as Melo’s sidekick, the Nuggets don’t appear to be on the verge of challenging for a title. If they were serious about contending, they wouldn’t have given Marcus Camby away two summers ago. They did, however, sign 30-year-old Al Harrington to a mid-level deal this summer, which was a curious addition seeing as he’s something of a poor man’s Melo.

While the Nuggets have a couple of expiring salaries — Kenyon Martin ($16.5 M), J.R. Smith ($6.8 M) — they won’t have enough cap space next summer to re-sign Anthony and add another big-name free agent. Their best bet is to try to acquire a good player by dangling Martin’s expiring contract. Perhaps the Sixers would want to unload Andre Iguodala, whose defense and slashing ability would fit well with Melo and Billups.

The bottom line is that if Anthony ends up ‘testing’ free agency, he’s probably leaving. In all likelihood, if he doesn’t sign the extension, the Nuggets have until the February trade deadline to reshape the roster enough to convince him to stay.

Shaq the Celtic?

Cleveland Cavaliers Shaquille O'Neal (L) is guarded by Boston Celtics Kevin Garnett during the third quarter in Game 6 of their NBA Eastern Conference playoff basketball series in Boston, Massachusetts May 13, 2010. REUTERS/Adam Hunger (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT BASKETBALL)

It looks that way.

Shaquille O’Neal has decided to join the Boston Celtics, according to sources with knowledge of the situation. He is expected to tell the team of his intentions Wednesday morning.

The length of the contract is not known, but O’Neal, who has been seeking a two-year deal, will play for the veteran’s minimum of $1.4 million annually.

It’s hard to say if this is a good signing. It seems so on paper — the Celtics now have a guy who can score in the post and rebound, and it shores up the front line, which will be missing Kendrick Perkins for the first few months. Offensively, Shaq’s clogging of the lane — which didn’t work well in Cleveland alongside the slashing LeBron James — won’t be as disruptive to Boston’s attack, as the C’s are essentially Rajon Rondo and a team of jumpshooters.

But there is so much else that comes along with signing Shaq, namely the ego. Can the Celtics’ locker room with its vaunted ‘ubuntu’ handle Shaq’s massive personality? Is he going to start grumbling about minutes or touches if he’s not getting enough? Will he stay in shape? Will he stay healthy?

From an intrigue standpoint, other than Miami, he couldn’t have landed in a better spot. A possible Boston/Miami matchup now has no fewer than eight potential Hall of Famers: Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Rondo, Shaq, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh.

In the end, if the report is accurate, Shaq chose relevancy over money. Kudos to him for that.

NBA announces Christmas Day schedule

Mar. 04, 2010 - Miami, FL - Florida, USA - United States - Miami---fl-heat-04d----NBA basketball with the Los Angeles Lakers visiting the Miami Heat at the American Airlines Arena. Miami's Dwyane Wade works past ex-heat player now Laker Lamar Odom.  Robert Duyos, Sun Sentinel.

The NBA season will open on 10/26 with the Heat/Celtics and Rockets/Lakers on TNT. The Heat will face the Magic on 10/29, which looks like Miami’s home opener.

The Christmas Day lineup is headlined by the Heat @ Lakers and Celtics @ Magic. Also, there are matchup between the Bulls/Knicks, Thunder/Nuggets and the Blazers/Warriors to round out the day.

The entire schedule will be released on 8/10.

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