CHICAGO—Just days after beating long odds in the NBA Draft Lottery by winning the 2008 draft’s first pick, the Chicago Bulls shocked the basketball world by announcing that they would trade their prize in on yet more NBA lottery tickets.
“This is pretty good, this No. 1 pick, it’s true,” Bulls general manager John Paxson told reporters while watching pre-draft workouts at the United Center. “We could probably get a pretty good player. But you see, if we cash it in and play the NBA Draft Lottery some more, we have a chance to win, like, the whole draft. Our team can’t afford to pass up a chance like that.”
“I hear these people second-guessing our decision to re-invest the top pick,” team owner Jerry Reinsdorf said Monday, “and it reminds me of 1984, when everyone wanted Hakeem Olajuwon or Sam Bowie and we wound up with a player you might have heard of named Michael Jordan. Well, just think of the entire 2008 Draft as the second coming of Michael Jordan.”
The Bulls front office was immediately inundated with phone calls, letters, and e-mails from fans insisting that the entire 2008 class, though certainly good, was no Michael Jordan.
As long as there have been barstools, there have been men on those barstools debating the most important topics in sports. In this week’s Barstool Debate, Anthony Stalter and John Paulsen discuss the pros and cons of the NBA’s current lottery system and what can be done to fix it.
John: The current NBA lottery system just isn’t working. It was designed to give the worst teams in the league the best draft picks while eliminating (or at least limiting) teams tanking in order to get a better pick. But every March, we start to see teams that are out of the playoff hunt shutting down their “injured” stars while “developing” their younger players. To be fair, these teams aren’t intentionally losing games, but they are intentionally not giving themselves the best chance to win. One way to eliminate this would be to give each lottery team an equal chance at the top (let’s say seven) picks, and go by record after that. Sure, decent teams will occasionally get the top pick (like in 1993, when the 41-41 Orlando Magic landed the #1 pick), but it will eliminate most of the tanking and put a better product on the floor later in the season.
Anthony: I agree that having a system in place that would give all lottery teams a fair shot at the No. 1 pick would eliminate tanking even more, but is it really fair that the fourth- or fifth-worst team gets a shot at the best player in the draft? Look the Spurs the year they drafted Tim Duncan. The only reason they were a lottery team that year was because David Robinson got hurt and missed most of the season. Now they’re a dynasty thanks to that draft. Isn’t there even a better way than giving all lottery teams a shot at the No. 1 pick? I understand that the NBA can’t adopt the NFL’s draft approach and pick just based on win-loss records, but it just doesn’t seem right that a decent team can become great just because they finished in the lottery one year.
John: I guess it depends on whether or not it’s right to reward failure. The idea is for the worst teams to have a shot at the best players so they can improve their teams and increase parity in the league. But look at the lottery this year. The Bulls overcame 1.7% odds to get the overall pick. Chicago was a playoff team two years ago and now it gets to add Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley to its talented roster. Meanwhile, the Heat are picking #2. Of all the teams in the lottery, Miami is the only one with a true superstar to build around and now they get to add whomever the Bulls pass on to a talented core that includes Wade and Shawn Marion. So even without an equal chance, decent teams are still getting the top picks, so why not make all the odds even so that we can at least eliminate tanking at the end of each season? I know that fans that fork out big money for seats want to see the stars play, but if they’re going to a game that features two non-playoff teams in March, chances are they will only get to see the scrubs in action. The most important thing is the product that is put out on the court, and tanking undermines that product.
Anthony: The overall goal in having a lottery is twofold. One, the NBA wants to encourage parity and two, it wants to avoid teams tanking at the end of the year. Unfortunately, it appears that there’s no way to accomplish both. If you want parity, you have to give teams with poor records a shot at the best prospects. But to avoid several teams “resting” their starters at the end of the year in order to get a better pick, you have to have a lottery. And in a lottery, you run the risk of decent teams like the Bulls and Heat coming away with some of the best talent. It seems like a no-win situation.
John: I say that the product that the league puts on the floor should be the priority. Therefore, it is most important to eliminate tanking, so the league should give each team even odds at winning the top seven picks. Then picks #8-#14 should be based on record. That, or devise a win-or-go-home playoff system that would keep some or all of the lottery teams involved until the very end. Maybe seed the top 14 teams in the playoffs and then take the other 16 teams and have a single-elimination tournament that would yield the final two playoff teams. Not only would that be exciting, but it would discourage tanking for most teams as they would still be playing their stars in an attempt to make the playoffs. Whatever the direction, the league should do something. Right now, tanking is running rampant and some good (or at least decent) teams are getting the top picks.
Let’s see, Miami drafted their franchise-changing player, Dwyane Wade, in 2003, won a title in 2006, traded away their aging, overpaid center for a talented forward that’s in his prime, and now they have the #2 pick in the draft with a chance at another franchise-changing player?
I guess the lesson here is that if you’re going to tank… tank hard.
I’m not saying that the Heat planned all of this. They certainly went into the season hoping to eventually make a run in the Eastern Conference Playoffs, but a poor start and a series of nagging injuries to Wade forced the Heat’s hand. They found a desperate trade partner in the Suns and rid themselves of the overpaid and under motivated Shaquille O’Neal, landing an All-Star caliber forward (Shawn Marion) in the return. Now their consolation prize will likely be either Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley, whomever the Bulls don’t take. How convenient is it that either player should fit nicely alongside Wade and Marion?
Suddenly, the Heat’s short-term prospects are looking pretty good. Who would have said that six months ago?
The Heat have only five players signed past next season: Wade, Mark Blount, Udonis Haslem, Marcus Banks and Daequan Cook, assuming they exercise their option on his rookie contract. Haslem’s contract is very reasonable for what he brings to the table. Banks, who quickly fell out of favor in Phoenix, actually played pretty well for the Heat, averaging 9.5 points and 3.0 assists, while shooting 51.2% from the field and 40.5% from long range. If the team ends up with Beasley, it’s conceivable that a Banks/Wade backcourt could work. If the team drafts Rose, Banks could make a good backup.
The conventional wisdom is that Marion will likely exercise his player option, as he’s not going to be able to get that kind of money ($17.2 million) in the open market. This will allow the Heat to see if the Wade/Marion/rookie-to-be-named-later combo has potential. If it’s a disaster, they may be able to move Marion for a disgruntled or out of favor star before the trade deadline. If it looks like it’s going to work, then they can work out a more reasonable deal for Marion’s services.
Given the type of season they had (and the fact that they had Shaq’s albatross-like contract hanging over their heads for a few more seasons), the Heat are sitting pretty right now. They just simply have to sit back, draft whoever is there at #2, and maybe try to find a defensive-minded big man to man the middle for the mid-level.
DraftExpress is reporting that multiple sources within the Minnesota organization are saying that GM Kevin McHale has locked onto Kevin Love as his favorite prospect in the draft.
McHale reportedly likes the skill-level and all-around feel for the game that Love brings to the table, as well as his winning mentality, and sees him as an excellent potential compliment to Al Jefferson in Minnesota’s front-court.
Picking 3rd in this draft, many would consider it a reach to take Love, although numerous advanced statistical formulas have identified him as being the 2nd most productive player in this draft, behind Michael Beasley.
There is already some talk that Minnesota will look to make a trade with Memphis GM Chris Wallace, who would then have the option of fortifying his front-court by drafting Brook Lopez at #3, or swinging for the fences and taking O.J. Mayo. Memphis could offer Minnesota the young prospect of their choice in Kyle Lowry, Hakim Warrick or Javaris Crittenton to help facilitate the deal.
A couple of weeks ago, I posted a video of Love in training and commented how he looked leaner and more athletic. It looks like McHale sees the same things.
Minnesota’s backcourt features Randy Foye and Rashad McCants, and they have Al Jefferson manning the middle, so Kevin Love would seem to be a nice addition to that core group of guys. Ryan Gomes is decent, but he’s probably better suited to be a combo forward off the bench. Last year’s first round pick, Corey Brewer, had an awful season (37.4% from the field, 5.8 ppg) so small forward is an option as well. Going with Love would allow Brewer to develop for another season or two before giving up on him.
Another school of thought would have the Wolves take Brook Lopez with the pick, which would allow Jefferson to play his “natural” position of power forward. But the league is getting smaller and quicker and Jefferson is best when his back is to the basket, so maybe his best position is center.
Are there any Minnesota fans that want to chime in?
The Bulls defied the odds (1.7%) by winning the top pick in the lottery and now, with a good offseason, the team is poised for a big turnaround. The decisions start with Ben Gordon and Luol Deng, who are both restricted free agents this summer. It’s pretty clear that the team wants to keep Deng as he was seemingly the only player deemed “untouchable” in all the trade talks the past few seasons. Both players turned down extensions worth in excess of $10 million per year, so neither guy is going to be cheap.
So which direction should the team go with the #1 pick? They could take Chicago-native Derrick Rose, but that would mean fewer minutes for either Gordon or Kirk Hinrich, and a serious change in the direction of the franchise. It seemed like the Bulls were content with Hinrich and Gordon in the backcourt, but Rose has the potential to be a franchise-changing player like Chris Paul or Deron Williams. Do you really pass on that for a duo that didn’t play all that well last season? I say no. I would take Rose and eventually start him alongside Gordon, moving Hinrich to the bench or trading him altogether. Rose is 6’4” and is strong, so he could cover most opposing shooting guards, though his college coach John Calipari said that he’s going to have to work on his defense. Hinrich’s salary actually decreases over the next four years, so another option is to sign-and-trade Gordon for help elsewhere. The safe play is to draft Rose, sign Gordon and see how the trio plays as unit.
Another option is to draft Michael Beasley, which would give the Bulls the low post presence it has been lacking since their boneheaded move to trade Elton Brand for Tyson Chandler. A starting lineup of Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Beasley and Joakim Noah, along with a bench of Larry Hughes, Andres Nocioni and Drew Gooden, should be pretty formidable in another year or two, especially on the offensive end.
I think Chicago’s decision will depend on how the franchise feels about its current backcourt. The once promising Hinrich/Gordon duo had a disappointing season, so there’s no guarantee that either player will be on the roster come November. Both players hold significant trade value, so the Bulls’ best move may be to draft Rose and build around the Rose/Deng combo. I’d draft Rose, lock up Deng, and let Gordon test the restricted free agent market if he doesn’t want to sign a deal averaging somewhere in the $8-$10 million range.
