ACTIVE
Eli Manning (John Clayton is reporting that he’s starting)
Jamal Lewis (downgrade for Jerome Harrison)
Jonathan Stewart
Antonio Bryant
Dwayne Bowe
INACTIVE
Kevin Curtis (upgrade for Jeremy Maclin)
Willie Parker (start Rashard Mendenhall!)
Phil Dawson (Billy Cundiff takes over)
Roy Williams (upgrades for Crayton, Austin and Hurd)
Earnest Graham
Matthew Stafford
Kevin Boss
Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.
The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.
Tony Romo has a tasty matchup against a Chiefs defense that is 28th in the league against the pass. They have allowed an average of 251 yards and 2.0 TD through the air, so even if Roy Williams is out, Romo should have a nice day…Matt Schaub has a favorable matchup with the Cardinals, who own the league’s 30th-ranked pass defense, yielding 280 yards and 2.3 pass TD through the first three games. Neither defense is stout, so this could turn into a high-scoring affair…Ben Roethlisberger looks like a must-start this week against the Lions. The only worry is that the Steelers get the running game going and Detroit can’t score enough to keep it close…Matt Cassel has his first favorable matchup this season. He faces the Cowboys, who have yielded 256 yards and 1.5 pass TD per game. Dallas got off to a rough start defensively, but has come on the last two weeks. Still this one looks like it could be a high scoring affair, and Cassel will likely have to throw a lot in the second half…Donovan McNabb should start on Sunday against a Bucs defense that has given up nine pass TD in four games…Brett Favre is coming on and he has the Rams this week. It’s possible that Minny will dominate in the ground game, but Favre should throw at least 1-2 TD if St. Louis can muster enough points to keep it somewhat close…Joe Flacco looks like a nice start against the Bengals, who gave up 269 yards and a TD to Derek Anderson and the Browns last week. Cincy’s defense is a little underrated, but Baltimore should be able to move the ball this week…Looking for a sleeper? Shaun Hill (vs. ATL), Seneca Wallace (vs. JAX) and Derek Anderson (@ BUF) all have above average matchups this week.
Bucs’ OC Greg Olson wants Caddy to be the featured back. Williams has been productive, but he’s injury-prone, and if the Bucs start giving him 25 touches a game, he’s probably going to break down. This is bad news for Derrick Ward in the short term, but in the long term, it might be a good thing. Ward could be the primary ballcarrier to close the season.
Brandon Marshall seems to be happy again. It’s amazing what a 4-0 start and a sick, game-winning TD catch will do for a guy. Marshall’s talent is undeniable, and it seems like he and HC Josh McDaniels have put the ill will behind them and have found a way to work together. Marshall’s upside is still limited somewhat by Kyle Orton (just ask Eddie Royal owners), but he has been productive of late and has worked his way back to being an every-week start in most formats.
Rashard Mendenhall should start this week. With Willie Parker likely out, look for another big game from Mendenhall as he faces the Lions’ 20th-ranked rush defense.
MBIII is back at practice. The Cowboys face the Chiefs this week, so it’s a nice matchup for the entire offense. Barber should be in most starting lineups, but Tashard Choice is likely to see a lot of work to keep Barber fresh. Choice has been productive, so there’s no reason not to use him.
Frank Gore on track to return in Week 7. The 49ers have a bye next week, so it looks like Sunday may be the last week that Glen Coffee is startable. He has a nice matchup with the 25th-ranked Falcons’ rush defense and should see plenty of work. Regardless, Gore owners should keep Coffee stashed as a handcuff.
Westbrook and McNabb to play. It looks like LeSean McCoy will eat into Westy’s touches, but he’s still a very good start against the Bucs’ sketchy defense. This should also be an upgrade for DeSean Jackson and even David Akers, who should see more opportunities now that McNabb is back under center.
Eli Manning sits out of practice. He’s looking like a game-time decision for Sunday. The good news is that he can’t make his foot worse by playing on it — it’s all about what kind of tolerance he has for the pain. I’d expect Manning to continue with the great season he’s having since mobility isn’t one of his strengths in the first place.
Giants want to involve Hakeem Nicks. On three targets, Nicks caught one pass for 54 yards and a TD in Week 4, while Mario Manningham went 1-43 on eight targets. Manningham is currently getting the lion’s share of looks, but he didn’t convert very well on Sunday. His conversion rate is now down to 56%, which is just mediocre. Nicks’ rate (43%) is even worse, but the Giants still want to get him involved in the offense. The only safe start for the Giants right now is Steve Smith.
Roy Williams (ribs) did not participate in practice on Wednesday. This an upgrade for the rest of the Cowboys’ receiving corps, and now Patrick Crayton looks like a decent start in most leagues while Sam Hurd becomes a sleeper with Williams sidelined. This hurts Tony Romo since he’ll have one fewer weapon to utilize, but he shouldn’t have trouble posting a nice fantasy line against the Chiefs. Keep an eye on Williams this week.
Braylon Edwards to start Monday night. You’d think they’d bring him around slowly, but the Jets don’t have a lot of options at WR now that Chansi Stuckey is gone. They’re going to take their new toy out for a spin. Will Braylon suddenly discover where his hands have been hiding the last year and a half? Only time will tell.
The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, preferably one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.
Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…
#1 49ers: 0 PA (10) + 5 SK + 1 INT + 3 RET TD + 1 FR = 36 fantasy points
#2 Bengals: 2 SK + 1 INT + 1 FR + 1 RET TD = 10 fp
#3 Bills: 6 SK = 6 fp
Clearly, the 49ers were an awesome pick and they no doubt won a ton of games for fantasy owners this week, whether or not they were following DTBWW. The Bengals didn’t do quite as well from a sack/turnover aspect as I thought they would, but they did have a return TD, so that made for a good day. I didn’t mention it last week, but Indianapolis was an attractive pick too, but it looked like Dwight Freeney was going to be out, so I didn’t pick the Colts over the Bills.
Through three weeks, pick #1 has generated 14.3 fp, pick #2 has averaged 9.0 fp and pick #3 has scored 11.0 fp on average. On the whole, DTBWW has averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game. Those are DT4-type numbers.
Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.
Pick #1: San Francisco 49ers (vs. ATL)
They’re the top defense in the league and they’re available in 70% of ESPN leagues. The Falcons are just a mediocre matchup for SF, but the 49ers are playing really good defense right now and they’re at home this week. If you picked them up last week, stick with them.
Pick #2: Buffalo Bills (vs. CLE)
The Bills were embarrassed against Miami, allowing 38 points and a ton of rushing yards. If this game were in Cleveland, I may not take the Bills here, but they always play pretty tough in Buffalo.
Pick #3: Dallas Cowboys (@ KC)
After a pair of goose eggs to start the season, the Cowboys have bounced back with solid efforts the last two weeks, posting 21 fantasy points against the Panthers and nine against the Broncos last week. In Week 5, they face the Chiefs, who can’t run the ball and don’t have that many options in the passing game.
Bonus pick: Miami (vs. NYJ)
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