A: After two years, according to Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz.
Schatz wrote a column in the Nov. 30 issue of ESPN The Magazine — I know it’s a little dated, but cut me some slack, I’ve been buried beneath Bill Simmons’ 700-page opus — where he outlined how long teams should take to evaluate a young QB. (Note: I’d provide a link, but I can’t find this story anywhere on the net. Sorry.)
These two examples raise a critical question: When is it time to give up on your young QB?
The quick answer is: after two years (unless, of course, the guy has spent that time on the bench). If a QB falters badly in those first two seasons, you can pretty much write off his chances of ever amounting to anything. It may sound harsh, but chew on these names: Kyle Boller, Quincy Carter, Tim Couch, Charlie Frye, Rex Grossman, Joey Harrington, Danny Kanell, Mike McMahon, Akili Smith, Alex Smith, Danny Wuerffel, Spergon Wynn. Not exactly a parade of Hall of Famers, huh? Well, you can put Russell in that group, too.
Of all of those players, only Alex Smith has shown any signs of resurrecting his career.
Schatz and Football Outsiders use their “replacement player” concept (“basically how many yards a player gains compared with what a replacement-level player, that is, a typical second-stringer, would get in the same situation, against the same opponent”) to determine whether or not a QB is struggling.
Schatz addresses Brady Quinn…
