It’s an especially tough week to rank players since one has to play the guessing game of which teams will be resting players and which teams won’t. You’ll notice that the top of each set of rankings are dominated by players on teams that still have something to play for. I won’t be doing a Q&A post this week, so feel free to post any questions you may have in the comments section below.
…me!
I’m happy to report that I held onto the #1 spot in the FantasyPros accuracy contest and have been named this season’s most accurate fantasy expert. After finishing #1 in Week 14 and #2 in Week 15, I didn’t have the strongest Week 16 (#22 overall, though I’d like to note that I finished #1 in DT and #2 in K, which don’t count towards the competition), but my 0.9% lead still held strong. Here’s an excerpt from the FantasyPros article summarizing the results:
Was there any doubt that John Paulsen would finish on top as 2010’s Most Accurate Fantasy Football Expert?! After leading the competition for an astounding 11 consecutive weeks, Paulsen held on in the final week of the season to take home the top prize. The key indicator of Paulsen’s dominance was that he was the only expert in the competition to rank in the top 10 for each of the 4 positions that factor into our overall scoring: WR (#1), RB (#3), QB (#10), TE (#1). Heck, he even finished as our #3 rated DST expert so you know he had the magic touch. Simply put, his player rankings were a one-stop destination for advice seekers looking for any kind help. And as a guy who helped so many people win their league titles, it’s certainly fitting to crown him as this year’s accuracy champ. Congrats, John!
By position, I finished #1 in both TE and WR, #3 in RB and DT and #10 in QB. (Damn quarterbacks!)
I’d like to thank the fine folks over at FantasyPros for running this contest — it has obviously given me and TSR a lot of exposure, and it has been fun having a level playing field to compete against the big boys.
What am I looking at?
Below you’ll see a table with a list of team names on the left and a list of positions (including PPR data) along the top. If a square is pink, it means that the matchup is tough. If it’s green, it means it’s a favorable matchup.
It’s important to note that this is NOT straight fantasy points allowed. I removed the bias of schedule by looking at the opponents of each defense and how they fared in their other games. For example, if a particular defense faced a series of great QBs, then that is taken into account in these tables.
How do I use SOS?
Generally speaking, I use strength of schedule as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players. Let’s say I’m trying to decide between starting BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Cedric Benson. All else being equal, these two players are very close in my mind. But if BGE has a great matchup and Benson has a bad matchup, the choice is clear. In fact, if BGE just has a mediocre matchup while Benson has a bad matchup, I’d probably go with the Law Firm.
Be careful not to read too much into these tables. You aren’t going to bench Chris Johnson in a bad matchup unless you have a bona fide RB1 with a good matchup waiting in the wings.
Now that Week 16 has come and gone, it’s time to hand out a few awards for the 2010 season. Let’s jump right in…
Most Valuable QB: Michael Vick, Eagles
While I believe that Tom Brady deserves the real-world MVP, Vick is without a doubt the top fantasy QB of the year. He finished QB1 despite missing three-plus games due to injury, and the best fantasy playoff numbers of any QB, scoring 27.1, 42.1 and 28.5, respectively.
Most Valuable RB: Arian Foster, Texans
It’s amazing to think that Foster was going in the 5th or 6th round (or even later) in fantasy drafts in late August. Through W16, Foster racked up 2,030 total yards and 16 TDs, becoming (out of necessity) one of the few every-down RBs in the league. He didn’t have the greatest fantasy playoff by his standards (321 total yards, one TD), but he dominated the competition throughout the season and none of the other top RBs had good enough playoff numbers to trump Foster’s regular season exploits.
Most Valuable WR: Roddy White, Falcons
Just like Foster, White didn’t have eye-popping numbers in the playoffs (18 catches, 187 yards, two TDs) but he didn’t lay any eggs, either. In PPR leagues, he finished 30 points ahead of the next best WR and no other top WR had a great W14-16 run to offset White’s performance in the regular season. He’ll likely be the top fantasy WR heading into next season given his age and consistency.
Most Valuable TE: Jason Witten, Cowboys
Antonio Gates was well on his way to winning this award, but a midseason foot injury knocked him out of the stretch run. Meanwhile, Witten raised his game down the stretch, posting 40-395-5 over the last five games and 25-254-4 during the three-week fantasy playoffs. In fact, I’d argue that Witten outperformed his competition during W14-16 more than any other player at any other position this season, at least in PPR formats.
Most Valuable DT: New England Patriots
The Steelers were a little better for the entire season, but the Patriots really came on down the stretch, scoring 60 fantasy points over the final four games (and 48 in W14-16). What’s funny is that a midseason swoon made the Pats available on the waiver wires in a lot of leagues, so owners who were fortunate enough to pick the NE DT up (and hold onto them), gave themselves a big boost during the fantasy playoffs.
Most Valuable K: Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders
Janikowski started the season strong, scoring 10+ in seven of his first nine games (and 6.9+ in the other two) before his bye. Over the next three games, he failed to score more than 5.0, but turned it on during the fantasy playoffs, scoring 7.0, 17.1 and 21.3 over the final three weeks of the season, finishing as the top fantasy kicker in the process. Despite all the uncertainty at QB, Janikowski was a dependable weapon this season for fantasy owners. And it just goes to show how much depth there is at kicker — he was the #14 kicker off the draft board back in August.
Biggest Surprise: Brandon Lloyd, Broncos
All due respect to Michael Vick, Peyton Hillis and Marcedes Lewis, Brandon Lloyd became fantasy’s #2 WR just one season removed from an eight-catch 2009. As the 93rd WR off the draft board, he was the definition of a waiver wire gem, finishing with 72 catches for 1375 yards and 10 TDs. I was admittedly slow to get on the Lloyd bandwagon, as I had been burned by him before (in San Francisco, and then in Washington), but those owners with short memories who managed to snag him off the waiver wire enjoyed his fine play for much of the season. He did crap the bed in W13 and W14 (totaling just five catches for 63 yards), which gave this writer a certain sense of satisfaction, but he turned it on again in W15-16, racking up nine catches for 190 yards and a TD with Tim Tebow under center.
I know, I know, with championship games still hanging in the balance, it may be a little early to start looking forward to next season, but there were a few late-season performances that got me thinking about 2011. After all, it’s never too early to find a few sleepers.
Jonathan Stewart
All right, he doesn’t qualify as a sleeper, but with DeAngelo Williams’ future in Carolina in doubt — he’s a free agent and the Panthers may not want to pony up to keep him — Jonathan Stewart could emerge as a first- or second-round fantasy RB next season. “The Daily Show” was handed the keys in Week 8 and really disappointed fantasy owners with just 30 yards on 14 carries against the Rams. He looked pretty good on just five carries (for 30 yards) against the Saints before being knocked out for two games with a concussion. But after returning in Week 12 against the Browns, he rattled off five quality rushing performances, averaging 106 rushing yards and an eye-popping 5.5 yards per carry over the last five games. Granted, the Seahawks, Browns and Cardinals were all in the bottom third against the run, but the Falcons were 13th and the Steelers were 1st, and Stewart averaged 7.4 and 3.9 ypc, respectively. (The Steelers only gave up 3.0 ypc on the season, so 3.9 is actually impressive.) The fact that Stewart was able to run like this despite zero threat of a passing attack is also encouraging. If the Panthers can find a QB (or the light goes on for Jimmy Clausen), and Williams is elsewhere next season, Stewart could be in for a big 2011.
Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell, Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham
There’s a lot of talk about the Bengals cleaning house this summer, and that includes Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. Both guys can still play, but the spend-a-lot-of-money-on-receivers strategy hasn’t worked in recent years and the franchise might do well to start fresh with Simpson, Caldwell and Shipley, who have all performed well in stints during their short careers. Simpson and Caldwell are both third-year players, while Shipley is a rookie. After getting the start against a good Chargers pass defense, Simpson caught six passes for 124 yards and two TDs. He has great size and could be a solid starter if given the opportunity. Caldwell had a good sophomore season (51-432-3) as the de facto WR2 in 2009, when Laveranues Coles’ production was less than expected. His targets fell off a cliff when Owens came to town. Shipley seems destined for a long career in the slot a la Wes Welker or Danny Amendola. As for Gresham, the rookie has quietly put together a really solid first season. His 52 receptions mark just the seventh time in league history that a rookie TE has caught 50+ passes. The Bengals can save $2.5 million if they cut ties with Ochocinco and T.O. is a free agent, so the Cincinnati receiving corps could look very different next season. Of course, these wideouts aren’t going to have much success if there isn’t a good QB throwing the ball The franchise has to decide what it wants to do with Carson Palmer, who has had his ups and downs this season (but looked awfully good throwing to this crew against the Chargers on Sunday).
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