Category: Fantasy Football (Page 109 of 324)

      The curious case of Santonio Holmes

      September 11, 2009 /

      All right, a show of hands…how many of you thought that Santonio Holmes was going to start of the 2009 season with a 9-131-1 statline against the Tennessee Titans last night?

      Be honest.

      Holmes finished 2008 (his third season) as fantasy’s WR33, averaging 3.7 catches for 55 yards and 0.3 TD in 15 games. His ADP entering the season was in the 5th round, largely because of the numbers he produced in the playoffs. After a mediocre 2-25-0 start against the Chargers, he posted 2-70-1 against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game and 9-131-1 against the Cardinals in the Super Bowl. (You’re reading that right — Holmes had the exact same line in the Super Bowl as he did last night against the Titans.)

      Heading into the season, I thought Holmes was a nice value in the 6th round, or a decent pick in the 5th if I had to go WR and the other guys — Eddie Royal, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Anthony Gonzalez and Braylon Edwards — were already gone. Holmes just seemed overrated after winning the Super Bowl MVP. After all, this is a guy who finished no better than WR29 in PPR leagues in the last two seasons, and converted just 48% of his targets into catches in 2008. (The league average last season was 57.5%.)

      Holmes’ production seems to be at least partly dependent on how well the Steelers are running the ball. Over the past two-plus seasons (and including last night’s game), Holmes has posted 70-plus receiving yards in 13 games. In those games, the Steelers ran the ball well (4.0 ypc or greater) just three times: versus the Bengals and Rams in 2007 and again against the Bengals in 2008.

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      Fantasy Football

      NFL Network to offer its own RedZone channel

      September 11, 2009 /

      DirecTV subscribers may be wondering if the NFL Network’s new channel, “NFL RedZone” is the same as the RedZone Channel that is available as part of the Sunday Ticket package. The answer is yes…and no. It’s not the exact same channel. It has a different host and a different studio, but the concept is the same.

      The channel will bounce around from game to game to show live action or instant highlights from a multitude of games. I’ve watched the DirecTV version for six hours straight, and it’s a great way for fantasy football enthusiasts to spend a Sunday. I assume that the NFL Network’s version will be just as good.

      I have long been critical of the NFL’s decision to make the Sunday TIcket exclusive to DirecTV, largely because I’m a diehard Packer fan living in a California condo with no view of the southern horizon (making me one of the millions of football fans that simply can’t get DirecTV without moving). The DirecTV monopoly exclusive rights extend through 2014, though the package may be available to non-DirecTV subscribers in 2012. I mention the Sunday Ticket debacle because this NFL Network Red Zone channel is a step in the right direction.

      Of course, the NFL Network is still at odds with several cable companies — including my carrier, Time Warner — as they haggle over carriage fees for the channel. Actually, “haggle” would imply that the two sides are negotiating. As far as I know, they’ve both walked away from the table.

      The cable giant wants to offer NFL Network on a sports tier, while the NFL Network wants the channel to be on the basic tier, which due to its high carriage cost, would have a significant impact on the bottom line and increase cable rates for all subscribers. Essentially, the Network wants every subscriber to pay for the channel even if they don’t want it in their lineup.

      It was one thing for Time Warner to walk away from negotiations when the NFL Network only carried eight games in a season, but now that TWC’s subscribers will be missing out on this new Red Zone channel, I’d expect the pressure to strike a deal will be amped up. I, for one, am not pleased that this product is readily available and the 2nd-largest cable company in the country does not offer it. What’s the point of having a monopoly if you aren’t going to use your negotiating power to get what you want?

      Between the offering of exclusive rights to Sunday Ticket and the high carriage fees of the NFL Network (and presumably, the new RedZone channel), the NFL is not treating a subsection of its fan base very well.

      We just want to watch the games — all of them. Why is the league making it so difficult for fans to consume its product?

      Fantasy Football, News, NFL

      Digging deeper into Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW)

      September 10, 2009 /

      Yesterday, I posted my DTBWW picks for Week 1 and thought I’d spend a little more time discussing the subject. I’ve used DTBWW quite a bit in the past, and it’s not always by design. Sometimes a defense that I’m counting on doesn’t perform up to snuff, so I need to look elsewhere for production. The idea is that every week, there is usually one or two mediocre or solid defenses on your league’s waiver wire that have a favorable matchup. A mediocre defense with a great matchup is just as good as having a great defense with a medicore matchup.

      Last season, my top weekly DTBWW pick averaged 9.8 points per week, which over the course of the season equates to DT2 or DT3 numbers. My second pick averaged 6.1 points, which obviously isn’t as good, but still solid. The top two picks averaged 7.9 points, or DT6-type numbers. (If you’re wondering what scoring system I’m using, it’s the Antsports High Performance scoring system that awards one point per sack, fumble and interception, two points per safety and six points per defensive/special teams touchdown.)

      The best way to pick a DTBWW candidate is to look for medicore/solid defenses that are facing bad offenses that allow a lot of sacks. Total sacks is the most consistent defensive scoring category week-to-week and it’s also a good indicator of quarterback pressure, which can lead to turnovers and touchdowns. It also helps to pick defenses that are playing at home, as most DTs play better at home than they do on the road.

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      Fantasy Football

      Fantasy Quick-Hitters: Pierre’s knee, Boldin’s hammy, and more

      September 10, 2009 /

      Pierre Thomas practices, but Week 1 status still uncertain. Whoa! This is a surprise, as everything had been pointing to Thomas sitting out this week. The day after is crucial with knee injuries, so we’ll see if it flares up or if he’s able to go on Friday. If he goes, he’d be a solid start against a bad Lions defense.

      Anquan Boldin doesn’t practice, but says he’ll play. Hammys are fickle, so use caution when inserting Boldin in your lineup. Steve Breaston looks like a solid WR2/flex play in Week 1 against a suspect 49ers defense.

      Jonathan Stewart not listed on injury report. I expect that he’ll still be limited, but this is a great sign for Stewart owners (and not such a great sign for DeAngelo Williams owners).

      Malcom Kelly named starting WR2 in Washington. This has been the general consensus for a couple of weeks now, but it still bears watching. Kelly is big, but isn’t terribly fast. Still, big receivers can thrive in the WCO due to their ability to overpower smaller DBs on slants, so Kelly could be a worthwhile pickup in big PPR leagues.

      Antonio Bryant practices fully on Wednesday. The Bucs have downgraded at QB, so I wouldn’t expect Bryant to post the kind of numbers that he did last season, but the top 20 is certainly within reach.

      Steven Jackson to be used like Brian Westbrook. This is good news for owners who have Jackson in PPR leagues. He’s a versatile pass catcher and the Rams would be smart to try to get him the ball in space so that he can avoid the constant pounding inherent in between-the-tackles rushing.

      Fantasy Football

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