I missed out on my first 4-0 Sunday last week by picking the Steelers against the Saints, which was a mistake. It was a clear trap and had I trusted my gut, it would have been a clean sweep. I’ll take 3-1 every week though.
On to this week’s picks…
Chiefs (5-2) @ Raiders (4-4), 4:15PM ET
I’m not buying this latest offensive surge from the Raiders. If he can stay healthy, there’s no question Darren McFadden can knock on the door of elite. But this is still Oakland Raider football, where consistency goes to die. This pick is less about the Chiefs and more about the Raiders coming back to earth, although I like Kansas City. Do I think they’ll keep up their strong play? Not really, but their defense is strong and their offense started to figure things out before last Sunday’s dud against Buffalo. Chiefs win outright, although I’ll gladly take the points with them playing on the road.
THE PICK: CHIEFS +3
Chargers (3-5) @ Texans (4-3), 1:00PM ET
The Chargers, your official spokes team for traps. The past two weeks oddsmakers have laid traps with the Bolts, as they were favored against the Patriots and Titans at home. This week they go on the road (where they’re 0-4, mind you) to Houston and they’re favored again? Without Antonio Gates? Something smells like old asparagus. You look at this line and it screams out to take the Texans, which is exactly why I’m taking the Bolts. Take that oddsmakers!
THE PICK: CHARGERS –3
Bucs (5-2) @ Falcons (5-2), 1:00PM ET
I’ll admit I’m not a big Bucs fan. I think their 5-2 record is a mirage and while it was cute of Raheem Morris to build up his team’s confidence by saying they were the best in the NFC, this team will come back down to earth at some point. That said, what a total slap in the face to be a 9-point dog against a team that they’ve played tough throughout the years. I know the Falcons are good at home (nearly unbeatable under Matt Ryan), but Tampa has always gives Atlanta fits. This is going to be a hard-fought, nasty, tooth-and-nail, down-to-the-wire finish in the Georgia Dome and I’ll gladly take the nine points.
THE PICK: BUCS +9
Saints (5-3) @ Panthers (1-6), 1:00PM ET
The NFC South is an interesting division. The Saints always have a hard time with the Panthers, who always have a hard time with the Falcons, who always have a hard time with the Bucs, who always have a hard time with the Saints. But not this Sunday. Carolina is putrid and if it weren’t for Buffalo, we’d be referring to this team as the worst in the league. And without DeAngelo Williams, they don’t stand much of a chance this Sunday against the Saints. New Orleans may have righted the ship with a win last Sunday night against Pittsburgh, so maybe we’ll start to see glimpses of the ’09 Saints over the next couple of weeks. That, or at least a diet version of the ’09 Saints.
THE PICK: SAINTS –6.5
Season Record: 13-14-1
It’s hard not to like Eli Manning (#4) this week. Seattle is a tough place to play, but Manning has nine TDs in his last three games and is coming off a bye week, so the Giants should be fully prepared to face the Seahawks, who are ranked 29th against the pass…Matt Ryan (#6) has a nice matchup with the Bucs, who have given up an average of 2.0 pass TDs through the first seven games…Josh Freeman (#11) has quietly become the league’s most underrated fantasy quarterback. He has thrown at least one TD in six of seven games this season, and he always seems to add 20-30 rushing yards to his fantasy total. With a great matchup against a sketchy Falcons secondary on tap, he should be in line for another solid day.
