It’s award season in the NBA and today I’ll take a look at the top Sixth Man of the Year candidates. Not only will I try to predict who will win the award, I’ll also discuss who should win win the award. Those are two separate questions and they may have two separate answers.
First, to narrow down the candidates, I took a look at the winners from the past 10 seasons:
| Yr | Player | TM | G | GS | GS% | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOT | WINS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | Aaron McKie | PHI | 76 | 33 | 43% | 31.5 | 11.6 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 20.7 | 56 |
| 2002 | Corliss Williamson | DET | 78 | 7 | 9% | 21.8 | 13.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 18.9 | 50 |
| 2003 | Bobby Jackson | SAC | 59 | 26 | 44% | 28.4 | 15.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 22.0 | 59 |
| 2004 | Antawn Jamison | DAL | 82 | 2 | 2% | 29.0 | 14.8 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 22.0 | 52 |
| 2005 | Ben Gordon | CHI | 82 | 3 | 4% | 24.4 | 15.1 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 19.7 | 47 |
| 2006 | Mike Miller | MEM | 74 | 9 | 12% | 30.6 | 13.7 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 21.8 | 49 |
| 2007 | Leandro Barbosa | PHO | 80 | 18 | 23% | 32.7 | 18.1 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 24.8 | 61 |
| 2008 | Manu Ginobili | SAS | 74 | 23 | 31% | 31.1 | 19.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 28.8 | 56 |
| 2009 | Jason Terry | DAL | 74 | 11 | 15% | 33.7 | 19.6 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 25.4 | 50 |
| 2010 | Jamal Crawford | ATL | 79 | 0 | 0% | 31.1 | 18.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 23.5 | 53 |
Notice that all 10 winners had the following in common:
— They started fewer than 45% of their teams games.
— They averaged at least 11.6 points per game.
— They averaged at least 18.9 total points, rebounds and assists.
— They were all on teams that won at least 47 games. Eight of 10 winners were on teams that won 50+ games.
Using this criteria to narrow down the legitimate candidates for the 2011 Sixth Man award, we’re left with this list of 11 candidates. To give us a little leeway, they all started less than half of their teams games, they averaged at least 17.3 total points, rebounds and assists, and they play on teams that have at least 38 wins on the season.
I also included Efficiency Per Minute to see how productive each player is in the minutes he gets. Bigs tend to do better in this statistic because it’s easier to post rebounds than it is to register assists and big men tend to shoot at a higher percentage because they play close to the basket (so they have fewer misses, which weight efficiency down).


