Category: College Basketball (Page 39 of 153)

After a wild and wacky opening day, things settled down quite a bit on Friday, with the higher seeds winning 13 of 16 games. The only upsets — #10-seeded Georgia Tech and Missouri, and #12-seed Cornell — didn’t seem like upsets at all. Georgia Tech and MIZZOU were both “live dogs,” while that Temple/Cornell matchup was hyped as an upset special as soon as the bracket was announced. If the Big Red hadn’t won, it would have been a disappointment (like the Siena Saints).

Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin are both 25-7 in picking games by all margins, but Pomeroy is faring better with the big favorites, going 15-2 over the first two days in games where the favorite has a 70%+ chance of winning. Sagarin is just 16-5 in games where one team has a 3+ point advantage. He’s actually doing better overall with games in the 0 to 3-point range (9-2).

Bracket-wise, it was a bloody first two days, but I think I made it through all right. Fifteen of my Sweet 16 teams are still alive (G-Town the only goner) and I still have all of my Elite 8 teams. I’m sure there are more than a few people who had Temple, Vanderbilt, Marquette and Notre Dame winning two games. It’s nice to win a lot of first round matchups, but it won’t matter much if you lose a Final Four team or two in the first couple of days. Still, it hurts to go 9-11 in games seeded 5/12 through 8/9. I picked a lot of upsets — SDSU, Minnesota, Siena, Florida St. — and didn’t pick the ones that came in — Old Dominion, Washington, Cornell, Ohio or Northern Iowa. But I’m still alive, and that’s all that matters.

My first three bets went 2-1, with St. Mary’s and Georgia Tech winning and Utah St. getting worked over pretty well by Texas A&M. I like St. Mary’s +4.5 and Ohio +8.5 today.

Today’s action starts with three potential upsets — Nova/SMC, Butler/Murray St. and Tennessee/Ohio — but I’m also looking forward to seeing if BYU can hang with Kansas State. If the Cougars can pull the upset, they’ll be heading back to Salt Lake City to potentially play two games 45 minutes from campus.

Earlier this week, I identified a few games that seemed like good value plays based on the Sagarin ratings for the two teams. St. Mary’s won easily, while Georgia Tech and Utah State are going today. Let’s take a look at Saturday’s games.

Kansas State (-4.5) vs. BYU
Sagarin says this game is basically a pick ’em with the Wildcats having a slight (0.7-point) advantage. So that means that the Cougars should be a good value here since they’re getting 4.5 points. Based on what I saw of BYU against UNLV and Florida, I am not too impressed with the Cougars, so I don’t really like this bet.

Villanova (-4.5) vs. St. Mary’s
Sagarin gives the Wildcatsa 2.2-point advantage, so the Gaels look like a solid bet value-wise. I also like this bet with the eye test. Villanova has good guards, but so do the Gaels, and St. Mary’s also has 6’11” Omar Samhan down low. Villanova doesn’t have much on the front line. Not only do I like the Gaels plus the points, but they also have a good chance to win this one outright.

Kentucky (-9) vs. Wake Forest
Sagarin pegs Kentucky as a 6.7-point favorite, so Wake Forest would be the value pick here. Can they keep it close? Sure, but they’re coming off a late overtime win on Thursday and might be a little worn down. I’d take a pass.

Tennessee (-8.5) vs. Ohio
Sagarin says the Vols are an 8.3-point favorite, so at first glance, this line doesn’t look too far off. But Ohio has battled adversity all year and it was only after the last couple of weeks that the Bobcats really came together. Ohio has now won six straight and eight of its last nine, including Thursday’s big win against Georgetown. Tennesee is great at defending the three, but those are a lot of points for the Vols to give.

Recommended picks: St. Mary’s +4.5, Ohio +8.5