Author: Jamey Codding (Page 1 of 25)

Bargain hunting for starting pitchers

March 8, 2009 / Jamey Codding

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

As someone who loyally subscribes to the “wait for pitching” strategy on draft day, I’m always on the lookout for value starters. Experience has shown me that there are plenty of nice starting pitching bargains in the middle and late rounds every year, and if I’m diligent enough, I can also add pitching via the waiver wire during the season. All of which allows me to load up on as much hitting as I can in the early rounds, understanding that the more offensive firepower I have on my roster, the easier it will be to trade for a top-line starter should I find myself in need of reinforcements for the stretch run.

Of course, that doesn’t mean I ignore pitching on draft day. Far from it. Those SP bargains I mentioned above are available each year, if you know what to look for. Sure, it’s nice to have a reliable horse like Johan Santana or Brandon Webb anchoring your pitching staff, but the cost of adding someone like that is usually a little too steep for my tastes. So instead, my goal is to take five to seven solid starters who can deliver quality ratios while racking up strikeouts. Ideally, I also look for guys who pitch for successful teams, hoping that will translate to wins for my team.

The guys I target tend to fall into one of four categories: Young Guns, Rebound Vets, Undervalued Arms and Late Steals. As I’ve admitted in previous posts, I’m a sucker for upside but that doesn’t mean I’ll fall for any promising youngster with a lively arm. I’m also a sucker for a good revival story so I’m always looking for veterans with a solid track record whose stock has fallen because of an off year, while guys in the undervalued category tend to fly under the radar despite their consistent production. Finally, I try to wrap up every draft with one or two late-round picks that could pay off big in the long run.

Below, I’ve listed several pitchers I’ve got my eye on in each of these four categories, using the Average Draft Position (ADP) from ESPN’s draft kit as a guide. I’ve included the ADP as well as the SP rank (SP13, for example) for each of the 16 starters below. These aren’t, of course, the only guys who would qualify in these categories, just the ones at the top of my list. If you’re thinking about stockpiling bats early in your draft, maybe they should be at the top of your list too.

Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Football, General Sports, MLB

Aaron Harang best starting pitchers Brett Myers Chris Young draft strategy draft tips drafting starting pitchers Edinson Volquez Erik Bedard Felix Hernandez Francisco Liriano Javier Vazquez John Maine John Smoltz Johnny Cueto Josh Beckett Justin Verlander Kelvim Escobar Max Scherzer pitching values Randy Johnson starting pitcher values starting pitchers Yovani Gallardo

When in doubt, go for the healthy young guy

March 6, 2009 / Jamey Codding

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

If you’re a fantasy baseball or football owner and you don’t read Rotoworld every day (or, in my case, several times a day), you’re not only missing out, but you may very well be costing yourself a chance at a league title. As far as free and comprehensive fantasy advice goes, nobody does it better than Rotoworld. Their player updates pull from all sorts of local and national sources and are updated throughout the day, and their columnists offer up plenty of great insight, both during the season and leading up to draft day. They even have their own draft guide, although you’ve got to pay $15 for that.

Howard Megdal (who, as far as I can tell, is new to the Rotoworld staff this season) just posted a great article about the value of youth and health on draft day:

So when I draft, I want as much predictability as possible. Therefore, my two touchstones are getting as many players in their age peak (roughly 25-30), with an added focus on injury history. Such a strategy provides no guarantees—no strategy does—but puts me in the best position to consolidate my gains. And as a bonus—a healthy player of peak age, more likely than not, is going to be a player who has that surprise season you were hoping for from the rookie, anyway.

I’m always amazed by how many owners don’t pay attention to age or injury history during their drafts, especially in the early rounds. Every year, someone drafts a guy like AJ Burnett too early, and every year Burnett goes down with some kind of injury. Go ahead and take Lance Berkman in the second round — I’ll gladly wait another round or two and snag the younger Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder. Upside, upside, upside.

Megdal goes on to target some of the likely first-rounders that he’s avoiding this year:

Ian Kinsler is another top-12 player with red flags of the white bandage variety. For the third straight season, he showed that when healthy, he is an offensive force at a position, second base, with very few of them. But he played in just 121 games, this time due to a sports hernia, and his season-high through three seasons is 130. No reason he can’t help a fantasy team—but let someone else draft his injury history first.
Also consider dropping Jimmy Rollins, who played in 137 games last season and already has back issues in spring training, and Carl Crawford, who was limited to 109 games with a finger injury last year. Crawford in particular appears to be healthy this spring—but grab the guy who just put up 150-160 games in 2008. An extra 10-15 games out of your best player could be the difference in some leagues.
Instead of Kinsler, who averaged fewer than 124 games per season from 2006-2008, how about Brandon Phillips, who has averaged around 150 games per season? Phillips is 27, suggesting that his best year may come in 2009.

I’m pretty high on both Kinsler and Phillips, as I noted in my second base preview, but while Kinsler is younger (by one year) and may arguably have a little more upside, Phillips has the much healthier track record and can be snagged a little later than Kinsler, which likely makes him the better value of the two. When you consider the premium you’ll need to pay for Kinsler (a late first or early second rounder), Phillips becomes that much more intriguing.

Megdal wisely suggests not becoming a slave to this (or any) draft strategy, because remaining too loyal to a plan could close you out of any mid- to late-round bargains that may fall into your lap. But when it comes to debating the merits of Carlos Delgado vs. Adrian Gonzalez, AJ Burnett vs. Edinson Volquez, or Carlos Lee vs. Nick Markakis, you’d be wise to go with the younger, healthier guy.

Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Football, General Sports, MLB

A.J. Burnett Adam Dunn Adrian Gonzalez Brandon Phillips Carl Crawford Carlos Delgado Ian Kinsler Jimmy Rollins Lance Berkman Manny Ramirez Oliver Perez Prince Fielder Rotoworld

2009 Fantasy Baseball Preview: Second Basemen

March 4, 2009 / Jamey Codding

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

Second base is home to one of the biggest draft-day dilemmas: What to do with Chase Utley? I covered Utley’s situation in more detail here, but as you’ll see in the rankings below, I’m not concerned enough about his recovery from hip surgery to drop him from the top slot at second base. Reports out of spring training have all been positive and Utley maintains that he’ll be ready for Opening Day. As long as he doesn’t suffer a setback between now and my draft, that’s good enough for me.

Of course, my refusal to drop Utley’s ranking has as much to do with his talent as it does the general lack of depth at second base. Sure, there is some talent at the top of the list but once you get eight or 10 deep, things start looking rather bleak. Fortunately, there is a fair amount of upside to be harvested here, with several 28-and-under guys who could outperform expectations this season. You’ll have to pay a premium for some (like the reigning AL MVP) while others can be snagged in the mid- to late-rounds (like Arizona’s new potential leadoff man), but they all have the kind of upside that I look for on draft day. And while upside alone won’t win you a fantasy title, it’s a convenient tiebreaker that makes a guy like Brandon Phillips a little more attractive than the steadier but older Brian Roberts.

With that in mind, here is some of the young talent you’ll want to consider this season, and see below for my top-25 second basemen.

Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
It’s only fitting to start this list with Pedroia after the 25-year-old sparkplug came out of nowhere to snag the MVP award with a .326-17-83-118-20 campaign. Of course, now everyone wants to know if he can do it again. Color me skeptical. Pedroia shouldn’t have a problem matching his average and runs total as Boston’s #2 hitter, but he never flashed the kind of home run power in the minors that he showed last season, and he stole a total of 11 bases in his four minor-league stops. Some will argue that Pedroia’s impressive 54 doubles not only indicate that the power surge was legit, but that more homers are on the way. That may turn out to be true, but I’ve seen Pedroia going ahead of Utley in many mock drafts, sometimes even late in the first round. That’s a price I simply am not willing to pay. Was 2008 the ceiling for Boston’s young second baseman? We’ll find out this season, but I’m content letting another owner pay the premium.

Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
After adding nearly 60 points to his batting average, Kinsler is another second baseman who will have to prove that last season was no fluke. A sports hernia ended the 26 year old’s season in August but not before he established himself as a legitimate 25-25 threat atop the Rangers lineup. Unlike Pedroia, Kinsler showed plenty of pop in the minors but, also unlike Pedroia, Kinsler hasn’t exactly proven to be a durable player in his short career, which is the lone reason I have him behind his Boston counterpart in my rankings. As far as pure ability goes, I’d rather have Kinsler. The average may have been a bit flukey but, if he can stay healthy, this may be the only second baseman who can rival Utley’s all-round production.

Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds
Maybe I spoke too soon. Kinsler certainly has the potential to match Utley’s power/speed combo, but the 27-year-old Phillips did just that two years ago, going .288-30-94-107-32. Actually, to be more precise, Utley has never stolen more than 16 bases in one season, whereas Phillips has averaged nearly 27 steals over the last three years. His numbers dropped last season, in part because of a finger injury, and some wonder how much he’ll rebound in 2009 now that Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. are no longer in town. Call me a sucker for upside, but I’ll gladly roll the dice on Phillips in the fourth or fifth round, and while I like the speed and consistency Brian Roberts offers, I’d rather have the medium-risk/high-reward Phillips.

Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox
Be careful here. Ramirez is all the rage after putting together a .290-21-77-65-13 season that would have been good for Rookie of the Year honors if not for Evan Longoria. The counting numbers look great but don’t overlook the ugly 61-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. At just 27, Ramirez has plenty of room for growth, and I love the fact that he’ll qualify at 2B, SS and OF in many leagues. But with that kind of plate discipline, don’t be surprised if the Cuban defector falls short of expectations in his second season.

Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
We’ve seen what Cano is capable of after he hit .342 with 15 homers in 2006 and .306-19-97-93 in 2007. Unfortunately for the 26-year-old Cano, his propensity for ice cold starts depresses his final numbers each year, an early season trend that bottomed out when he hit .151 last April. His pedestrian overall stats (.271-14-72-70-2) will keep his draft stock down this season, which means it’s the perfect time to buy low. If you’re looking for a rebound candidate at second base, Cano is your guy.

Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners
Lopez delivered improvement across the board last year, going .297-17-89-80-6 in his third full season with the Mariners. At 25, Lopez may very well still be on the upswing, and his career minor league numbers seem to back that up. He doesn’t draw many walks and he hits in a meager lineup, but if you haven’t found your starting second baseman by the middle rounds, Lopez would be a nice fit.

Mike Aviles, Kansas City Royals
As a 27-year-old rookie, Aviles put together a tidy .325-10-51-68-8 line in 102 games. The hype surrounding KC’s likely #2 hitter is surprisingly high right now so there’s a chance he’ll be overvalued on draft day, but Aviles was a very good hitter in the minors who totaled 27 homers in his last two years at AAA. Don’t go crazy for him, but don’t sleep on Aviles either. Bonus: he’ll qualify at 2B and SS.

Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers
Kendrick and Weeks ooze upside. The problem is, they can’t stay healthy. The glass-half-full side of me says they each set a career high for games played last year; the glass-half-empty side says, “Yeah, but that was 92 games for Kendrick and 129 for Weeks!” Good point. Still, Kendrick (25) is talented enough to win multiple batting titles even if the power hasn’t yet developed, while Weeks (26) has flashed some serious power/speed ability, averaging 15 homers and 22 steals in limited action the last two years. It would be foolish to count on either guy as your starting second baseman, but if you want to roll the dice on a high-upside middle infielder, you could do a lot worse.

Felipe Lopez, Arizona Diamondbacks
Lopez once hit 23 homers and stole 44 bases. He didn’t do those in the same year, of course, and since posting those numbers, the 28 year old has been a fairly mediocre fantasy player, but that just means he’ll come cheaply on draft day. The Diamondbacks are talking about having Lopez lead off in 2009, which may be the kind of opportunity the toolsy middle infielder needs to revive his career. As a bonus, he’ll qualify at 2B, 3B, SS and OF in many leagues, which makes him even more appealing as a late-round flier.

Skip Schumaker, St. Louis Cardinals
I’m cheating a little bit with this one in a couple of ways: Schumaker is 29 and he will not qualify at second base during your draft. The upside here is probably minimal but if Schumaker can win the second base job this spring (so far, so good on that front), he’ll likely have a regular gig in the leadoff spot for the Cardinals. That won’t translate to a whole lot of power and speed, but Schumaker should hit .300 and score 100 runs, numbers that look a whole lot like Placido Polanco’s. Considering owners tend to look at Polanco around the 10th round while Schumaker more often than not goes undrafted, that sounds like a pretty good value to me.

TOP 25 SECOND BASEMEN

1. Chase Utley, PHI
2. Dustin Pedroia, BOS
3. Ian Kinsler, TEX
4. Brandon Phillips, CIN
5. Brian Roberts, BAL
6. Alexei Ramirez, CHW
7. Robinson Cano, NYY
8. Dan Uggla, FLA
9. Mark DeRosa, CLE
10. Jose Lopez, SEA
11. Mike Aviles, KC
12. Kelly Johnson, ATL
13. Placido Polanco, DET
14. Howie Kendrick, LAA
15. Rickie Weeks, MIL
16. Aaron Hill, TOR
17. Orlando Hudson, LAD
18. Felipe Lopez, ARI
19. Skip Schumaker, STL
20. Mark Ellis, OAK
21. Freddy Sanchez, PIT
22. Kaz Matsui, HOU
23. Ronnie Belliard, WAS
24. Alexi Casilla, MIN
25. Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE

Bullz-Eye Sports Channel, Fantasy Baseball

2B preview Alexei Ramirez best second basemen Brandon Phillips Chase Utley draft pointers Dustin Pedroia Felipe Lopez Howie Kendrick Ian Kinsler Jose Lopez Mike Aviles Robinson Cano second basemen preview Skip Schumaker top second basemen

Fantasy baseball draft tips: Tier it up!

March 4, 2009 / Jamey Codding

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

You’re hunched over your desk, boring a hole into your cheat sheet. “Michael Young or Joey Votto?” You’re up in two picks. Make that one pick. Panic sets in. “Michael Young or Joey Votto?” You’re running out of time. Your eyes dart right to left between the two names. “Michael Young or Joey Votto?!” Time’s up; you need to make a choice. “MICHAEL YOUNG OR JOEY VOTTO?!” You burst into tears.

Okay, maybe you don’t actually cry…or maybe you do, I don’t know. Either way, you can potentially avoid this kind of draft day drama entirely if you spend a little more time preparing beforehand. Sure, you probably at least have one or two cheat sheets from your fantasy magazines or websites in front of you. Maybe you even took the time to put together your own cheat sheet. Unfortunately, that just means you’re looking at a jumbled mess of names organized by position. What does it all really mean?

To get a clearer picture of what kind of talent is still available during my drafts, I break each of my position rankings up into tiers. Typically the elite players at each position get their own tiers, followed by the guys I view as starter-quality, the fallback options and the leftovers. Depending on the depth at a particular position, there may also be a “star” tier in between the elites and starters, and maybe another serviceable tier between the starters and fallbacks, but you get the idea.

So what’s the point? If the poor fictional sap in my example above had a tiered cheat sheet in front of him, he may have noticed that Young was the last guy in his starters tier at shortstop, whereas there were three quality first basemen still available after Votto. So he takes Young to fill his hole at short and then targets Votto or one of the other three first basemen with his next pick. Problem solved, decision made, embarrassing emotional breakdown avoided.

My goal each draft is to fill my roster with as many starter-quality (and above) players as possible, and having my rankings broken up into tiers makes it much easier to gauge what kind of depth I’m dealing with. You may be surprised by the amount stress this kind of information can eliminate from your draft. Should you take a third outfielder or your starting middle infielder? What do your tiers say? You’d like to get one more closer but can you afford to wait another round or two? A catcher or another starting pitcher? Michael Young or Joey Votto?! The answer is in the tiers.

This isn’t a revolutionary way to approach your draft – all sorts of owners use some kind of tiered system – but it is an extremely useful tool that can help you build a deep and productive roster heading into the season. What owner wouldn’t want that?

Fantasy Baseball, MLB

Cincinnati Reds Joey Votto Michael Young Texas Rangers