Most fantasy football drafts utilize a “snake” draft where teams pick 1-12 in odd rounds and 12-1 in even rounds. Crafty owners can take advantage of the characteristics of such a draft if their draft position is one, two or three spots from either end. So those owners with the #2, #3, #4, #9, #10 or #11 picks (in a 12-team draft) should pay attention.
Here’s the situation: you have the #3 pick in the draft and the two owners ahead of you select LaDainian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson in the first round. You take a running back – let’s say Brian Westbrook – and the draft proceeds. Now you’re up again with the 2.10 (#22) pick and you’ve narrowed your pick to the following list:
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Willis McGahee, Jamal Lewis, Ryan Grant and Steve Smith
Let’s say that you like Smith, but now that he’s going to miss the first two games due to suspension, you’re a little down on him. You like Housh more; he’s a consistent WR in a terrific offense. However, you know that RBs are important and you want to select one of the three to round out your backfield, but you can’t decide which one since they’re all about the same. What do you do?
Take Housh.
Why?
The two owners picking #1 and #2 each have two picks before your next pick. Both have already taken a RB, so it isn’t likely that either owner is going to select two RBs with the next two picks because they’ll probably want to start filling out the rest of their roster. That leaves you with at least one of the three RBs to pick at 3.03. By selecting Housh (whom you value more than the next WR, Smith) you get the best WR on the board, and since McGahee, Lewis or Grant is likely to be there at 3.03, you’ll probably get a solid #2 RB in the next round. Since it didn’t matter to you which RB of the three you got, you let the other two owners make the tough decision, while you laugh all the way to the playoffs.
Now let’s say you’re in the same draft slot and your pick is up at 6.10. So far you’ve selected the following players:
Westbrook (RB), Houshmandzadeh (WR), Grant (RB), Santonio Holmes (WR), Tony Gonzalez (TE)
That’s a nice squad, but you have no QB. At 6.10, you’re selecting from the following group:
Matt Hasselbeck, Donovan McNabb, Marc Bulger and Jay Cutler
You notice that the team selecting #2 doesn’t yet have a QB while the team selecting #1 has Tony Romo. You can safely assume that team #1 won’t select another QB so soon, but team #2 might select their first QB before you pick at 7.03. You like both Hasselbeck and McNabb, but you really like Jerricho Cotchery over the other available WRs. So whom do you take?
Grab Cotchery.
In this case, you take Cotch and pass on Hasselbeck and McNabb, as one (or both) of them will probably be available for you to pick at 7.03.
This principle is applicable to all positions. Whether it’s a TE in the middle rounds or a kicker or a defense in the late rounds, being able to predict your opponents’ actions gives you an advantage during the draft. The key to this strategy is to know what players the #1 and #2 teams have already drafted so you can use that information to your advantage. In live drafts, it is often difficult to draft your own team as well as keep track of the other teams, but if you only pay attention to the important teams – in this case the teams picking #1 and #2 – it shouldn’t be much of a burden.
