Listen in as Anthony Stalter and I discuss all of the Week 10 happenings, including the DeAngelo Hall release, Brady Quinn’s first start, the Denver and Baltimore running games, and Larry Johnson’s possible return to action. I also throw out a few waiver wire quarterbacks that would be good pickups this week.
Click here to listen to the podcast.
(The opening and closing music is Devo’s “Girl U Want“)
Since Denver and Cleveland square off on Thursday night, I thought I’d throw out a few recommendations of some Browns and Broncos that you’ll want to start (or sit) this week. My regular “Love ‘Em/Leave ‘Em” post will go up Friday morning as usual.
LOVE ‘EM
Jamal Lewis has a great matchup with a Broncos rush defense that is 26th against the run. On average, they allow 5.1 ypc (2nd worst in the league) and 1.3 rush TD per game. The Browns are likely planning to establish the running game to help Brady Quinn get settled in his first game as the starter. Lewis should gain 80-100 yards and find the endzone at least once…Braylon Edwards is also a solid start against the Denver pass defense, which is 27th in the league…Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal are both worth starting against a Browns secondary that hasn’t been great against opposing WRs. On the whole, the Browns have a pretty good pass defense, but they allow quite a few fantasy points to wideouts…Ryan Torain looks like a sneaky good start against a Browns rush defense that is 28th in the league and yields an average of 148 yards and 1.1 rush TD per game. Be warned, Mike Shanahan is just as likely to pull a free agent off the street and go with a RBBC as he is to give Torain a full load.
LEAVE ‘EM
There are no players that I would bench based on the matchup, but I’m not feeling good about the chances of Tony Scheffler returning this week. He’s listed as questionable and didn’t sound positive earlier in the week when asked about the injury.
I’ve been beating this drum on our weekly fantasy football podcasts, but Michael Turner doesn’t run well against teams with good (or even mediocre) run defenses. That may seem intuitive, but he really doesn’t run well against good run defenses. Take a look at his first eight games. (The opposing team’s rank in average rush yards per game is in parenthesis.)
Week 1 – DET (31st): 220 yards, 2 TD
Week 2 – TB (13th): 42 yards
Week 3 – KC (32nd): 104 yards, 3 TD
Week 4 – CAR (14th): 56 yards
Week 5 – GB (27th): 121 yards, TD
Week 6 – CHI (6th): 54 yards
Week 8 – PHI (8th): 58 yards
Week 9 – OAK (30th): 139 yards
So against the Lions, Chiefs, Packers and Raiders (average rank: 30th), Turner posted an average of 146 yards rushing (5.7 ypc) and 1.5 TD. Against the Bucs, Panthers, Bears and Eagles (average rank: 10th), he rushed for an average of 53 yards (2.8 ypc) and zero TD. (Home versus away doesn’t seem to be much of a factor because he has had big games on the road – GB and OAK – as well as at home.)
What does this mean going forward? Well, here is Turner’s upcoming schedule:
Week 10 – NO (18th)
Week 11 – DEN (26th)
Week 12 – CAR (14th)
Week 13 – @ SD (16th)
Week 14 – @ NO (18th)
Week 15 – TB (13th)
Week 16 – @ MIN (2nd)
Week 17 – STL (29th)
Turner has a great matchup in Week 11 against the Broncos, but that enticing matchup against the Rams in Week 17 doesn’t really help most fantasy owners since the playoffs generally wrap up in Week 16. The Panthers and Bucs have already proven they can shut him down, while the Minnesota matchup in Week 16 is especially worrisome assuming the Vikings don’t lose their stud defensive tackles to suspension. That leaves two games against the Saints and one game against the Chargers, two teams that are mediocre against the run. And Turner hasn’t done particularly well against mediocre run defenses.
I just traded Turner away in one league because I’m not optimistic about his chances over the second half of the season. I packaged him with Larry Fitzgerald and Kellen Winslow for Marion Barber (whom I believe will get back on track once Tony Romo is back under center), Donald Driver and Antonio Gates. I feel like I’m getting an upgrade at RB and TE for a downgrade at WR. Since I also have Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Bowe, Wes Welker and DeSean Jackson at wideout, I feel like I can afford to lose Fitzgerald.
Depending on your league’s trade deadline, you may want to think about selling high on Turner as well. He might post good numbers this week against the Saints and he’ll probably run wild against the Broncos in Week 11, so I think he’ll have his highest value after that game. Of course, that won’t help you if your trade deadline is before then.
Check out this line from Yao Ming from last night’s 103-99 loss to Boston: 4-14 from the field, eight points, seven rebounds, zero blocks and zero assists.
Ron Artest shot 3-16 from the field, but finished with 15 points since he got to the line nine times. (Yao didn’t attempt a free throw.) So between the two of them, they shot 7-30 from the field. Ouch. Is Boston’s defense that good or did these two guys just have a bad night?
It’s probably a little bit of both.
Still, the Rockets have to be somewhat encouraged that they lost to the defending champs by only four points even though two of their three best players shot a combined 23% from the floor. Houston looks like a legitimate contender in the West, though their fortunes depend so much on the sustained health of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming.
Marc Gasol was a throw-in in the Lakers/Grizzlies trade that brought his brother, Pau Gasol, to Los Angeles.
But, thus far, he has been impressive in his own right. He posted 27 points, 16 rebounds and three blocks in a 90-79 win over the Golden State Warriors last night. He also had 12 points, 12 boards and two blocks against the Rockets on October 29th. He is currently averaging 13.0 points and 10.3 rebounds and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished the season in double-double territory.
The Grizzlies are a surprising 2-2, and Gasol is a big reason why.
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