Author: John Paulsen (Page 434 of 937)

Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 5

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, preferably one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…

#1 49ers: 0 PA (10) + 5 SK + 1 INT + 3 RET TD + 1 FR = 36 fantasy points
#2 Bengals: 2 SK + 1 INT + 1 FR + 1 RET TD = 10 fp
#3 Bills: 6 SK = 6 fp

Clearly, the 49ers were an awesome pick and they no doubt won a ton of games for fantasy owners this week, whether or not they were following DTBWW. The Bengals didn’t do quite as well from a sack/turnover aspect as I thought they would, but they did have a return TD, so that made for a good day. I didn’t mention it last week, but Indianapolis was an attractive pick too, but it looked like Dwight Freeney was going to be out, so I didn’t pick the Colts over the Bills.

Through three weeks, pick #1 has generated 14.3 fp, pick #2 has averaged 9.0 fp and pick #3 has scored 11.0 fp on average. On the whole, DTBWW has averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game. Those are DT4-type numbers.

Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Pick #1: San Francisco 49ers (vs. ATL)
They’re the top defense in the league and they’re available in 70% of ESPN leagues. The Falcons are just a mediocre matchup for SF, but the 49ers are playing really good defense right now and they’re at home this week. If you picked them up last week, stick with them.

Pick #2: Buffalo Bills (vs. CLE)
The Bills were embarrassed against Miami, allowing 38 points and a ton of rushing yards. If this game were in Cleveland, I may not take the Bills here, but they always play pretty tough in Buffalo.

Pick #3: Dallas Cowboys (@ KC)
After a pair of goose eggs to start the season, the Cowboys have bounced back with solid efforts the last two weeks, posting 21 fantasy points against the Panthers and nine against the Broncos last week. In Week 5, they face the Chiefs, who can’t run the ball and don’t have that many options in the passing game.

Bonus pick: Miami (vs. NYJ)

NBA News & Rumors: Lee, Aldridge, Ellis and the “sit down” rule

David Lee wooed by Blazers, but was worried about playing time. Portland offered $28 million over four years, but Lee didn’t think there were enough minutes to be had with LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden already on the front line. It looks as if Lee left $21 million in guaranteed money on the table to stay with the Knicks and play out the season. This is a big risk, but it may pay off next summer.

Blazers, Aldridge still talking extension. While it’s good to hear that negotiations aren’t at a standstill, it’s still worrisome that a deal has not yet been finalized. Aldridge is not a no-brainer max-contract guy, so right now, the Blazers are trying to convince his agent that Aldridge is not worth the max. This can be a tough pill to swallow, expecially with all those teams sitting on loads of cap space next summer. If Aldridge becomes a restricted free agent in 2010 and gets a max deal in the form of an offer sheet, then the Blazers will probably match. But it’s their job to get him for what they think he’s worth, and right now the franchise has the leverage.

Monta Ellis warming up to Stephen Curry.
Ellis was worried that Curry was just a shooter, but he’s shown the ability to create (specifically the nine assists he had in the Warriors’ first preseason game). I’m not sure why Ellis is so concerned with the team’s front office decisions, as he should be focused on having a bounce-back year after a fairly disastrous 2008-09 season. Curry and Ellis may face some matchup problems on the defensive end, but they have the potential to create as many problems for their opponents on the other end of the court.

LeBron not a fan of the “sit down” rule. I don’t blame him. He doesn’t want to see the emotion sucked out of the game, and that’s what this rule does. The league doesn’t want its players to block the view of the fans that pay thousands and thousands of dollars for premier seats, but there has to be a compromise here. Why not have a rule where the players can stand up to cheer a play but have to sit down within some set amount of time?

Waiver Wire Watch: Week 5

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only players eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Shaun Hill (8.9)
With Frank Gore out, Hill is becoming more of a factor in the SF offense, and he’s taking advantage of a pretty easy schedule.
Mark Sanchez (51.7)
Jason Campbell (32.4)
He can be started when he has a good matchup, and this makes him a good guy to have as part of a committee.
Derek Anderson (0.8)
Anderson makes the Browns a threat again.
Jake Delhomme (16.8)
Matthew Stafford (6.9)
Kerry Collins (11.0)
Josh Johnson (1.2)
Chad Henne (0.8)
Kyle Boller (0.4)

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NHL News and Notes (10/6)

We’ve partnered with On Goal Analysis to provide in-depth NHL coverage this season. Here is a look at the weekend’s game and a look ahead at this week’s action. For more analysis, be sure to check out the On Goal Analysis website and the OGA Blog.

It is time for a short post on some keys things we noticed this first weekend of the new hockey season and what to look for next week.

A short weekend…

…but an exciting and interesting one. At this point in the season, it is not worth getting too worked up while watching your team play. But if they were not winning, the time to wring hands is fast approaching. Because On Goal Analysis’ proprietary Playoff Qualifying Curve is not yet ready to determine who will or will not be in the 2010 playoffs, this week’s primary post focus is on some of the interesting storylines from the first three days and nights of the new Hockey season.

The first note we caught was the President’s Trophy winner, runner up and No.3 team ALL losing their season openers. BOS recovered somewhat by going 1-1 with a HUGE 7-2 second game win over CAR. SJS did likewise with a Game #2 win in ANA. But DET starts 2-0 with 1/3 of games against STL down the tubes. Will this come back to haunt the Red Wings in any way? Shaken confidence and increased frustration are likely by-products here. This team has a mere four days to travel home and practice before receiving CHI at home, a club that took three-of-four points home from the European openers.

We also found several points where science kicked in to display the thought theory that ‘Nature Seeks Equilibrium.’

• The No. 1, undefeated pre-season team (VAN) starts 0-2, both loses within the Division. Might this skew things out of their favor come the end of the season? Especially when the difference between the 8th and 9th seeds since the Lockout has averaged 1.5 games? We shall see…

• The team picked to be No. 15 in the West (COL) and 30th overall in many pre-season polls begins the season 2-0 with two, convincing victories by an average of three goals. That Wojtek Wolski fella is on a roll.

• PIT, pacing themselves in pre-season with only one W are 2-0 to start defense of their Cup victory in games against the two NY’s.

We also were watching the top five 2009 Entry Draft prospects currently active with their clubs this past weekend and their efforts:

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