Author: John Paulsen (Page 42 of 937)

Carmelo’s unimpressive fourth quarter leads to a loss

In his first playoff game as a Knick, Carmelo Anthony posted 15 points, four rebounds, four assists and two steals. That’s not a terrible line, but one look at his crunch time stats — 0-for-3 (all three-pointers) and two turnovers in the final 5:05 — reveals that he did not play well down the stretch. In fact, he was pretty much a no-show in the entire second half, scoring just three points on 1-for-11 shooting (0-5 from 3PT).

Carmelo has to play better if the Knicks are going to win tight games against the grizzled Celtics, who won the game, 87-85.

As bad as Anthony played, Amare Stoudemire was rolling. He posted 28 points (on 12-of-18 shooting) and 11 rebounds, and it’s a mystery why the Knicks didn’t go to him more down the stretch.

Grizzlies upend Spurs for first playoff win in franchise history

San Antonio Spurs Tony Parker (L) drives against Memphis Grizzlies Zydrunas Ilgauskas during the first half of Round 1 of the Western Conference NBA basketball playoffs in San Antonio, Texas, April 17, 2011. REUTERS/Joe Mitchell (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT BASKETBALL)

Check out this back and forth in the final minutes of the Grizzlies 101-98 win over the Spurs.

2:27 MEM – Marc Gasol missed two free throws (Grizzlies lead by 4)
2:09 SAS – Matt Bonner made three-pointer (Grizzlies lead by 1)
1:47 MEM – Tony Allen missed two free throws
1:28 SAS – Matt Bonner made three-pointer (Spurs lead by 2)
1:07 MEM – Mike Conley turnover
1:06 SAS – George Hill made two free throws (Spurs lead by 4)
0:56 MEM – Marc Gasol made layup (Spurs lead by 2)
0:31 SAS – Tony Parker missed 16-foot jumper
0:23 MEM – Shane Battier made three-pointer (Grizzlies lead by 1)
0:10 SAS – George Hill missed three-pointer
0:10 MEM – Tony Allen made two free throws (Grizzlies lead by 3)
0:01 SAS – Richard Jefferson missed three-pointer

What’s the point? The wheels almost came off for the Grizzlies after four straight missed free throws and the Conley turnover, but Memphis showed some resiliency and fought back to retake the lead. Typically, if you give the Spurs a four point lead with 1:06 to play, they’re going to close out the win 90% of the time (I’m guessing), so the fact that the Grizzlies fought back to win their first ever postseason game is quite impressive.

San Antonio better get its act together. Without Manu Ginobili, they just aren’t the same team and they need to gut out a win or two to keep themselves afloat until he can get back. The Grizzlies are a very dangerous 8-seed in this situation.

NBA Playoffs off to a great start

Chicago Bulls’ Joakim Noah (L) and teammate Kyle Korver celebrate during the second half of Game 1 of their NBA Eastern Conference first round playoff basketball game in Chicago April 16, 2011. REUTERS/John Gress (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT BASKETBALL)

Chicago 104, Indiana 99
The Bulls didn’t lead until Kyle Korver’s three-pointer with 0:48 to play that put Chicago up by three. It capped off a 14-1 run that erased the Pacers’ 10-point lead. Derrick Rose had 39 points, six rebounds and six assists in the win. Tyler Hansbrough (22 points) was excellent for the Pacers down the stretch.

Heat 97, Sixers 89
Philly went on a 12-0 run in the fourth quarter to cut the Heat’s lead to one, but Miami responded with a 9-2 run of their own to put the game away. Chris Bosh posted 25 points and 12 rebounds.

Atlanta 103, Orlando 93
Dwight Howard (46 points, 19 rebounds) and Jameer Nelson (27 points, six rebounds) were big for Orlando, but it wasn’t enough to overcome Atlanta’s balanced attack. Five Hawks scored in double figures, while no other Orlando player scored more than six points.

Predicting the rest of the NBA Playoffs, advanced metrics style…

Yesterday, I ran through the first round using Dean Olivers Four Factors of winning. For an overview, click here.

SECOND ROUND

#1 Chicago vs. #4 Orlando

TEAMPACEeFG%TORORRFT/FGAeFG%aTORaDRRFT/FGAaOEFFDEFF
CHI92.9.501.135.294.227.463.136.762.222105.597.4
ORL93.4.521.145.261.227.475.134.769.219105.598.9
  -.020.010.033.000.012.002-.007-.0030.01.5

These two teams are pretty evenly matched, with the Bulls leading in four categories to the Magic’s three. Chicago is a little better defensively and has home court advantage. I think point guard play will be the difference in this series and while I do like Jameer Nelson, he’s no Derrick Rose.

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