Here’s a look at each first round matchup, taking into account Dean Oliver’s Four Factors of winning:

1. offensive and defensive effective FG% (which weight three-point shots with an extra point)

2. turnover rate (percentage of possessions ending in a turnover, both on offense and defense)

3. offensive and defensive rebound rate (percentage of available rebounds on each end of the floor)

4. FTM/FGA (which shows how well a team gets points from the free throw line)

Since we’re using both offensive and defensive numbers, I’ll call them the Eight Factors.

I have also included pace (possessions per game) and offensive and defensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) for reference. Below the two rows for the two teams is a third row that shows the difference in each category. A positive number is good for the first team listed (which will always be the higher seed). A negative number means the higher seed is worse in that category.

I’ll put the season series results in parenthesis next to each matchup.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 Chicago vs. #8 Indiana (Bulls, 3-1)

The Bulls have the advantage in every category except for offensive FT/FGA rate. It would be a huge upset if Chicago didn’t win this series.

#4 Orlando vs. #5 Atlanta (Hawks, 3-1)

Of the Eight Factors (offensive and defense Four Factors), the Magic lead in six of them. Plus, they swept the Hawks in the playoffs last year, though the Hawks did win the season series. With home court advantage, this looks like an Orlando win. (Side note: Doesn’t Atlanta look like a team built to lose in the first round for the next five years?)

#2 Miami vs. #7 Philadelphia (Heat, 3-0)

The Head lead in six of the Eight Factors, though the Sixers do a better job of taking care of the ball and forcing turnovers. I’d be shocked if Philly were to win more than 1-2 games in this series given the way the Heat have been playing of late (i.e. very well).

#3 Boston vs. #6 New York (Celtics, 4-0)

Not surprisingly, the Knicks are better offensively than the Celtics, but Boston is quite a bit better on the other end of the court, which should offset New York’s scoring. That, coupled with the season sweep would indicate that the Celtics are a heavy favorite in this series. The Knicks could make things interesting if Carmelo Anthony and/or Amare Stoudemire get hot, but the C’s should prevail in the end, especially with a potential Game 7 at home.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 San Antonio vs. #8 Memphis (Tied, 2-2)

Given the way the Spurs are playing (4-8) in their last 12 games, and Manu Ginobili’s injury to his elbow, the Grizzlies could surprise in this first round matchup. Ginobili is scheduled to undergo an MRI today, and if he only misses a game or two, I think the Spurs (who have an advantage in six of the Eight Factors), will prevail. If Memphis is able to steal a game in San Antonio, this one could get very interesting.

#4 Oklahoma City vs. #5 Denver (Thunder, 3-1)

Considering the fact that the Nuggets’ numbers are weighted down by some poor play before the Carmelo trade, this is shaping up to be a very tight series. OKC leads in four of the Eight Factors, while the Nuggets have an advantage in three categories. I suspect that this one might go the full seven games, with Kevin Durant and Co. prevailing in the end. Let’s not forget that they got better at the trade deadline as well. They also have the two best players in the series in Durant and Russell Westbrook.

#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #7 New Orleans (Lakers, 4-0)

L.A. leads in six of eight categories. The Lakers are great on the offensive glass while the Hornets rebound well defensively, so expect there to be a battle on the Hornets’ glass. The Lakers should be able to put their late-season swoon behind them and play like champions, or at least resemble champions enough to advance.

#3 Dallas vs. #6 Portland (Tied, 2-2)

Of the Eight Factors, each team leads in four and the two teams split the season series, so this is a very even matchup. The Blazers don’t shoot the ball as well, but they really get on the offensive glass, though that’s a strength of the Mavs. There are a couple of interesting matchups (Andre Miller/Jason Kidd and LaMarcus Aldridge/Dirk Nowitzki) that could decide the series, but I think Jason Terry is the key. If Portland can control his scoring off the bench, they have a great chance to win the series. In four games against the Blazers, Terry has averaged 12.1 points per game on 43% shooting, so Portland seems to have his number. I’ll go with the Blazers.