Author: John Paulsen (Page 281 of 937)

OKC had its shot last night

The Lakers/Thunder series isn’t technically over, but it’s well on its way. After a pair of Russell Westbrook free throws, OKC held an 88-86 lead with 2:49 to play in the fourth quarter. But three straight turnovers — a Serge Ibaka goaltend, a Kevin Durant offensive foul, and a bad pass by Durant — coupled with a 7-0 run by the Lakers (six points came from Kobe) led to a 93-88 Laker lead and L.A. never looked back.

Kobe Bryant posted 39-5-1 (39 points and one assist…wow!), while Pau Gasol added 25-12. Ron Artest was tasked with guarding Durant, and did a pretty good job, especially down the stretch. His defense forced the first Durant turnover during the aforementioned game-changing run. KD finished with 32 points on 26 shots.

This was the Thunder’s chance to make this a series. While they could still potentially hold serve in Games 3 and 4, and tie the series up, it’s more likely that the Lakers steal one of those games in Oklahoma City and finish the Thunder off in Game 5 in L.A.


Photo from fOTOGLIF

Can we predict a quarterback’s success?

In the April 19 issue of ESPN the Magazine, Peter Keating discusses a way for NFL teams to determine whether or not a first- or second-round QB will have a successful NFL career. (Insider subscription required.)

David Lewin, formerly an analyst for Football Outsiders and now with the NBA’s Cavaliers, has found that games started and NCAA completion percentage accurately predict NFL performance for QBs drafted in the first two rounds. To be more specific, the Day 1 QBs who go on to have the best pro careers complete at least 60% of their passes and start at least 37 games in college.

This theory has been around a while and when I was researching it last week, I stumbled across a similar article from 2007, so I’m not exactly sure how far back it dates.

Using college completion percentage makes a lot of sense. It seems intrinsically true that a QB that has trouble completing passes in college is also going to struggle with his accuracy in the NFL.

The number of starts is another strong stat. For a prospect to start 37 games, he basically needs to be a three-year starter. This indicates that he’s been around the block a few times, is reasonably durable and opponents have had a chance to game plan for him (and he’s still completed a high percentage of passes). It also seems reasonable to think that most good NFL quarterbacks wouldn’t have to be a backup for more than one season while in college.

Let’s take a look at the QBs selected in the first and second rounds of the ten drafts spanning from 1998-2007 to see if this theory still holds water.

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LeBron exerts his will in Cavs win

Tied heading into the fourth quarter, the Bulls had a chance to steal Game 2, but LeBron James scored 13 of his 40 points over the final 12 minutes to propel the Cavs to a 112-102 win.

James finished with 40-8-8 and hit 16 of 23 shots from the field. Antawn Jamison added 14 points, Mo Williams added 12, but it was Jamario Moon’s 12 points — on 4 of 5 shooting from long range, three of which came in 4th quarter — that really helped put the Cavs over the top.

Joakim Noah responded to all the drama surrounding his recent comments about the city of Cleveland by posting 25-13, while Derrick Rose added 23-2-8.

The Bulls are about done, aren’t they? Chicago needs to win four straight to take the series, because I don’t see them winning a Game 7 in Cleveland unless the Cavs totally lay an egg.

What are the chances of a sign-and-trade for Bosh?

Even if he leaves Toronto, Chris Bosh says that he plans to stay in contact with Bryan Colangelo throughout the free agency process.

“No matter what happens, me and Bryan agreed to work together,” Bosh said. “I think that’s important. I respect him as a GM and he respects me as a player. No matter what you do, you always want to do good business in this league. We’re always going to talk.”

Colangelo had similar things to say.

“There are certain things we’ll be pursuing in the coming months that might address things on our team with or without Chris. We remain Chris Bosh’s best option to maximize his contract potential” (referring to sign-and-trade)

“We have agreed that regardless of whether or not he stays, we’ll be working together and talking. We’ll be assessing what options we have but it’s not often that a young athlete walks away from a significant amount of money and that’s the difference between him working for us and…doing a sign-and-trade.

This has been the fallback option for Raptor fans who liked the idea of the team keeping Bosh through last February’s trade deadline. It does make some sense for him because Toronto can sign him to an extra year which means more long-term security and bigger raises over the life of the contract. Conversely, if he agrees to a sign-and-trade, it needs to be with a team that has assets that would be deemed expendable given his arrival (i.e. Miami trading Michael Beasley because they play the same position, or the Knicks executing a sign-and-trade with David Lee, whom they wouldn’t re-sign if Bosh were headed to New York). Otherwise, why would Bosh agree to fleece his new team of most of its good, young assets when he can sign with the team outright?

If Bosh does execute a sign-and-trade with a team like Miami that has the cap space to sign him free and clear, one would have to question Bosh’s sincerity when he says he just wants to win. If that were the case and he were headed to Miami anyway, he should sign a five-year deal (instead of a six-year deal) and allow the franchise to keep the rights to Beasley which then could potentially be flipped for another good player. (The Lee scenario is different because he would be a free agent anyway and wouldn’t be back if the team were to sign Bosh outright, so they’re not really losing anything asset-wise.)


Photo from fOTOGLIF

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