Author: John Paulsen (Page 197 of 937)

      2010 Fantasy Football Preview: Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC)

      July 27, 2010 /

      All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

      Very few defenses are elite year to year, and performance can be tough to predict. One way to approach the position is to form a committee of two (or more) defenses that have favorable combined schedules but are being drafted in much later rounds than the so-called elite defenses. The idea is that a mediocre defense with a great matchup will provide approximately the same production as a great defense with a mediocre or bad matchup.

      Clayton Gray of Footballguys.com does an excellent job of compiling the strength of schedule data, and he even writes his own DTBC column (though he calls it ‘TDBC’). However, I like to go a step further and add the impact of home and away games, as middling defenses have a tendency to score more fantasy points at home.

      Last year, my top recommended combination was Green Bay and Dallas, which turned out well as both teams turned out to have Top 10 fantasy defenses. While I would have been better off just running the Packers out there every week, the duo’s recommended schedule netted 135 points (under a high performance scoring system), which were DT5-type numbers. My alternate recommendation, GB/ARI, netted 142 points, so DTBC does work.

      Here’s how I identify the top DTBC combinations:

      1. Use FBG’s SOS for DT9-DT28 along with David Dodds’ defensive projections to produce a week-by-week estimate for each defense.
      I eliminated NYJ, MIN, GB, PHI, BAL, PIT, DAL and SF from the study because all eight defenses are being drafted by the 12th round, which is just too early to start a DTBC. Please note that I don’t use Dodds’ fantasy point projections, just the projections for points allowed, sacks, interceptions, fumbles and touchdowns scored. So the point totals won’t look the same.

      2. Apply home/away adjustment.
      With relation to a team’s mean performance, I found that middling defenses (DT6-DT25) scored 2.8% higher at home in 2009 and 8.6% higher in 2008. I took the average (5.7%) and applied a bonus to home games and a handicap to away games. The more home games, the better.

      3. Run the numbers for the resulting 190 possible combinations to find the best DTBCs.
      I also calculated the playoff averages for Weeks 14-16 (and just Weeks 15 & 16 for a two-week playoff system) as a tiebreaker.

      So now I’m armed with a list of 190 possibilities sorted by total projected points. But numbers aren’t enough. I want a real-world perspective on this list. So I enlist the help of our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, to give his thoughts on the defenses in question. After some discussion, we narrow the list of the best candidates to eight teams: SD, NO, NYG, CIN, MIA, CHI, NE and IND. When picking our DTBC, we shouldn’t stray from these eight teams.

      Here are Anthony’s rankings along with his thoughts on each defense:

      Continue reading »

      External Sports, Fantasy Football, NFL

      Chris Paul still wants out

      July 27, 2010 /

      Ken Berger of CBSSports.com says that what we saw from the Hornets’ brass on Monday was a ‘smokescreen’:

      “The telltale thing is that Chris Paul won’t comment publicly other than what was released about it,” said a person familiar with Paul’s strategy. “Leon Rose didn’t come out and say, ‘Chris is happy in New Orleans.’ If he was happy, they would’ve said that. … The only way they can get close to full value is to say, ‘You guys can’t make trade demands.’ They’re orchestrating this thing to likely move him.”

      The Hornets, meanwhile, have been looking at Orlando, Charlotte and New Jersey as potentially attractive trade partners once the firestorm settles down, according to one of the people with direct knowledge of the Hornets’ strategy. Two other sources familiar with the situation confirmed prior discussions involving the Bobcats and Nets and said those talks are expected to advance in the coming days.

      Berger has emerged as one of the league’s more plugged-in writers, but one has to wonder how close this ‘person familiar with Paul’s strategy’ actually is to the man himself.

      Paul doesn’t have a no-trade clause in his contract, so the Hornets can send him wherever they want. The Nets are interesting trade partner due to the upside of Derrick Favors. I doubt New Jersey would give up Brook Lopez, but a deal that included Favors along with salary cap relief might be appealing to the Hornets.

      As for Charlotte, it just doesn’t look like the Bobcats have a young piece on the level of Favors (or the Gallinari/Randolph combination from the Knicks). Tyrus Thomas has spent most of his potential capital and Gerald Wallace is getting on in years.

      Favors can’t be traded until August 15, though an agreement in principle could be made sooner than that. If the Nets can come out of the summer with a core of Paul and Lopez (while possibly turning Devin Harris into some help on the wing), it will salvage an otherwise disappointing summer.

      External Sports, Fantasy Basketball, NBA, News, Rumors & Gossip

      Does baseball betting need saving?

      July 27, 2010 /

      Chad Millman of ESPN The Magazine certainly thinks so, which is why he came up with this idea:

      I hereby propose bookmakers adopt what I call the RHiD line, pronounced rid, which considers runs, hits and defense to create a point spread.

      First, we need a new system to create power ratings for each team. In football the difference between two teams’ power ratings is the baseline for creating a point spread. I’m suggesting bookmakers build an MLB version based on this formula: Per-game average of a team’s runs and hits minus the hits and runs it allows. The number created is now big enough to build a spread.

      As in football, though, that would be just a starting point for bookmakers. This is where their handicapping comes into play, as they adjust the spread for factors such as starting pitcher, location, injuries, slumps, bullpen strength, etc.

      And how do you bet on it? Well, you’re looking at the difference in the total number of runs and hits accrued in the game.

      His argument is that the +240 and the -285 that we see next to MLB team names is too confusing for squares, so adopting some sort of a point spread like football would increase interest. (Instead of seeing Yankees -275, we might see Yankees -8.5.) He also believes that awarding points for hits would keep bettors interested into the later innings. The game might be lost, but that doesn’t mean that the trailing team can’t rally to cover the spread.

      What do you think?

      External Sports, Fantasy Baseball, MLB

      Kevin Love on “The Decision”

      July 27, 2010 /
      Feb. 17, 2010 - Washington, China - (100218) -- WASHINGTON, Feb. 18, 2010 (Xinhua) -- Kevin Love (L) of Minnesota Timberwolves vies with James Singleton of Washington Wizards during their NBA games in Washington, Feb. 17, 2010. Wizards won 108-99. (Xinhua/Zhang Jun.

      Kevin Love has some experience being hated by his hometown fans. He left Oregon to play for UCLA, and there were plenty of Duck and Beaver fans that were none too happy about it. When asked about LeBron’s decision to form the Super Friends with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, this is what Love had to say:

      You can’t blame LeBron for wanting to play with two other superstars and contend for as many titles for as many years that they will be together. I do have some empathy for him for what he went through because people from my state hated me for going to UCLA and going out of state—taking my talents [makes quotation marks with his hands and smiles real big] to UCLA and Los Angeles. I do have empathy for him but at the same time I don’t because he did have an hour-long pay per view press conference to say a few sentences about where he was going. I like what Dwyane and Chris did. They got on Pardon the Interruption and said ‘Hey listen, we’re going to play together and we’re excited.’ Chris said his rap about loving the fans of Toronto and never forgetting what they did. I just thought the hour long press conference was way too much.

      It seems like people fall into three groups when it comes to “The Decision”: 1) those that understand/like the move to Miami, and are fine with the special, 2) those that understand/like the move to Miami, but thought the special was inappropriate, and 3) those that hate the special and hate LeBron’s decision to join forces with two other stars.

      It seems like most people fall into category #2 or #3. (I’m a member of #2, and it looks like Love is as well.)

      External Sports, Fantasy Basketball, NBA, News, Rumors & Gossip

      Hornets: Chris Paul did not request a trade

      July 26, 2010 /

      Per ESPN…

      Hornets general manager Dell Demps says star guard Chris Paul did not request a trade during a meeting with New Orleans executives.

      Demps says he is confident that Paul will be playing with the Hornets this season after Monday’s meeting, which included new coach Monty Williams and team president Hugh Weber.

      In a statement released by the team, Paul says he likes what he heard during the meeting from the Hornets about the “direction they want to take the team.” Paul also says he hopes to remain with the team for years to come.

      “The meeting went well,” Paul said in a statement. “It was great to get an opportunity to sit down with Coach Williams, President Weber and our new general manager Dell Demps. I expressed my desire to win and I like what they said about the direction that they want to take the team. I have been a Hornet my entire career and I hope to represent the city of New Orleans and state of Louisiana for many years to come.”

      There are two ways we can take this: 1) Paul is just saying the right things while his agent, Leon Rose, works behind the scenes to facilitate a trade, or 2) Paul is being genuine about wanting to stay in New Orleans.

      One thing that the Hornets have going for them is the city itself. Between Hurricane Katrina and the BP oil spill, the area has been ravaged by disaster and it’s tough for anyone of Paul’s stature to turn his back on the city.

      It’s going to be interesting to see how this story plays out over the next few days. Does the trade talk die off completely or does it pick up? Paul’s statement would seem to indicate that he’s satisfied with the direction of the team, even though the Hornets did little to nothing to improve this offseason. They made no major or moderate free agent acquisitions and they traded away the #11 pick (which turned out to be Cole Aldrich) for Craig Brackens and Quincy Pondexter.

      If the Hornets can convince Paul to swallow one more season of mediocrity, they are likely to have $20 million-plus in cap space next summer when David West opts out of the final year of his deal (which he is likely to do, since it only pays him $7.5 million). Even with Emeka Okafor eating up $13 million in space, that’s plenty of room to re-sign Marcus Thornton and add a quality free agent or two.

      For the last few years, the deal that killed the Hornets cap-wise was Peja Stojakovic’s. Now it’s Okafor’s, which is funny because how much more is he giving the Hornets than Tyson Chandler would? Had they just held onto Chandler, they’d be sitting with around $33 million in cap space next summer when all those deals expired.

      Stay tuned. This story seems like it may have run its course, but when there’s smoke, there is usually fire.

      External Sports, Fantasy Basketball, NBA, News, Rumors & Gossip

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