The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.
Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)
Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.
To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues.
Let’s see how my Week 3 picks fared:
#1 Dolphins: Zero fantasy points. (Ugh.)
#2 Redskins: 1 SK + 1 INT + 1 FR = 3 fp
#3 Chargers: 3 SK + 1 INT + 1 FR + 1 Safety = 7 fp
Clearly, it was an awful week for DTBWW. In fact, it was the lowest combined total since I started this feature at the beginning of the 2009 season. I apologize to anyone who took the Dolphins this week, especially if it cost them a win. (For what it’s worth, they cost me a win.) I overestimated Miami’s defense and underestimated Mark Sanchez and the Jets. New York did a nice job of calling short, quick-hitting pass plays for Sanchez which kept the Miami defense at bay and made it relatively easy to avoid turnovers.
Even with the crappy week, DTBWW is performing pretty well on the whole. My top pick is averaging 7.3 fantasy points per game, my #2 pick is averaging 7.7 and my #3 pick is averaging 8.3, for an overall average of 7.8 fppg. Those are DT8 numbers.
Let’s take a look at this week’s pick keeping in mind that to be eligible, the DT needs to be available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues.
Pick #1: Atlanta Falcons (vs. SF)
The Falcons are currently the #15 fantasy defense and they played pretty well (5 fantasy points) in a bad matchup with the Saints last week. This week, they go home to face one of the worst scoring offenses of the 2010 season. The 49ers just fired their offensive coordinator and are in transition.
Pick #2: San Diego Chargers (vs. ARI)
This is a tasty matchup for the Chargers due to Derek Anderson. Opposing teams have scored an average of 8.0 fantasy points on the Cards, so that’s a good baseline expectation for the Chargers, who have scored 19 points over the last two weeks.
Pick #3: Indianapolis Colts (@ JAX)
Offensively, the Jaguars are a mess. The Colts will probably get up by two or three scores, forcing the Jags to press, which will lead to sacks and turnovers.
Bonus Picks: SEA (@ STL), STL (vs. SEA)
