Author: John Paulsen (Page 145 of 937)

Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 6

Wondering who to add/drop or whether or not a trade is fair?

I’m here to help.

After checking out our Waiver Wire Watch, you can post your questions here, and unless you say differently, I’m assuming your league has a standard (non-PPR) scoring system.

If you are wondering who to start in a standard scoring league, please wait until later today when I’ll release my official Week 6 rankings.

And if you’re a regular visitor, please take a moment to rate my advice at Fantasy Pros (under Member Rating). I’d appreciate it.

Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 6

Houston Texans quarterback Matt Schaub grimaces as he is sacked by New York Giants defensive tackle Rocky Bernard during their NFL football game in Houston October 10, 2010.  REUTERS/Richard Carson  (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 5 picks fared:

#1 Chargers: 3 SK = 3 fantasy points
#2 Panthers: 3 SK + 4 INT = 7 fp
#3 Rams: 1 SK = 1 fp

My original post had the Falcons (18 points) at #3, but I’m not going to include them because heading into the weekend I had them fourth overall. I’m not trying to sugarcoat this deal. On the season, my top pick is averaging 6.6 fantasy points, my #2 pick is averaging 10.8 and my #3 pick is averaging 5.2. On the whole, DTBWW is averaging 7.5 fantasy points. I’m not real happy with the performance of DTBWW over the last three weeks save for the Charger’s 24-point explosion in Week 4.

Let’s take a look at my Week 6 picks:

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Waiver Wire Watch, Week 6: Where Danny Amendola reigns supreme

ST. LOUIS - NOVEMBER 22: Danny Amendola #16 of the St. Louis Rams carries the ball against the Arizona Cardinals at the Edward Jones Dome on November 22, 2009 in St. Louis, Missouri. The Cardinals beat the Rams 21-13. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

I’m going to change things up on the Waiver Wire Watch and start including players that are available on the waiver wire in at least 40% (instead of 50%) of ESPN leagues.

I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Matthew Stafford (23.4)
He’s not quite back yet, but in 12-team leagues it’s time to start thinking about picking him back up if you are past your QB’s bye. Starting in Week 8, the Lions’ schedule gets pretty favorable for the next eight games.

Josh Freeman (11.9)
Throwing out that game against the Steelers’ suffocating defense, Freeman has thrown for at least 280 yards or two TDs in three of his first four games. He’s a solid start against all but the toughest pass defenses, and his remaining schedule is very favorable (including WAS, DET and SEA during the fantasy playoffs).

David Garrard (40.8)
I used to think he was one of the most underrated fantasy QBs playing today. Then he posted a total of 278 yards, one TD and five INTs against the Chargers and Eagles. I was done with him. Then he threw for 341 yards, five TDs and one pick against the Colts and the Bills. Now I don’t know what to think. His upcoming schedule isn’t bad, but it isn’t terribly good either.

Matt Hasselbeck (21.1)
Hasselbeck’s schedule the rest of the way is largely mediocre, making him a middle-of-the-road fantasy QB2.

Alex Smith (10.6)
If the 49ers let him be himself (i.e. run the offense out of the shotgun) then Smith will continue to post good fantasy numbers. I don’t know if he’s going to win any games, but he will continue to post good numbers. His upcoming schedule should get easier.

Kevin Kolb (58.8)
He played pretty well in a good matchup against the 49ers, but I wouldn’t want to start him against ATL or TEN in the next two weeks. (Though it should be noted that neither matchup is dreadful.)

Sam Bradford (39.1)
Things were looking good for the rookie, with four straight games of at least 235 passing yards or two TDs. But Mark Clayton’s knee injury is going to knock him down a few pegs in my rankings. And he has a rough matchup with SD this week.

Shaun Hiill (12.2)
There’s no arguing that Hill has been on fire of late, but with Calvin Johnson possibly out for a Week 6 date with the Giants (who just shut down the Texans’ offense), he’s not a good pickup this week.

Matt Cassel (9.9)
Had Dwayne Bowe held on in the endzone, Cassel would have finished with respectable numbers. With HOU, JAX and BUF coming up, Cassel is a sneaky good (yet undependable) play.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (6.3)
He’s going on his bye, but Fitzy has averaged 198 yards, 2.3 TDs and 0.7 INT since taking over as the starter. He has a rough upcoming schedule (BAL, CIN, PIT, MIN in his next seven games), but a great matchup in Week 16 (NE).

Jason Campbell (4.2)
Campbell filled in for an injured Bruce Gradkowski and threw for 159 yards and a TD in a pretty tough matchup with the Chargers. With SF, DEN and SEA coming up, he’s a decent start in two-QB leagues.

Max Hall (1.0)

Jimmy Clausen (1.5)

Colt McCoy (0.4)

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Favre’s non-denial pretty much confirms it, right?

NEW ORLEANS - SEPTEMBER 09: Quarterback Brett Favre  of the Minnesota Vikings looks on during warms up against the New Orleans Saints at Louisiana Superdome on September 9, 2010 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

In Kevin Seifert’s NFL Nation post, he outlines what response Brett Favre has given the Jenn Sterger story.

Favre has fueled the story by passing on two opportunities to deny involvement. Asked for comment last Thursday, Favre said: “I’m not getting into that. I’ve got my hands full with the Jets and am trying to get some timing down with our guys, so that’s all I’m going to discuss.”

Asked again Sunday night during an ESPN production meeting, Favre said: “My main focus is the New York Jets. They are a tough team; as good as they are, that has been my focus. I hate in any way if this has been a distraction. As I said Thursday, we are here focused on trying to beat the Jets.”

Favre was asked point-blank if the original Deadspin.com report was accurate. His response: “That will take its course.”

Look at it this way — if Favre didn’t do what he’s accused of doing, what’s the downside of denying the story? The only reason (I can think of) that he’d issue these evasive non-denials is that he doesn’t want to get caught in a lie when the allegations are proven to be true.

Jenn Sterger (pics) apparently does not want to discuss the story, and for good reason. She told the editor of Deadspin about Favre’s advances in the winter of 2009 before she landed her television gig on the Versus show “The Bottom Line” in the spring of 2010. She left the Jets in the summer of ’09, so when she spoke to Deadspin, she probably wasn’t sure she’d make it as a legitimate sports personality. (The original reason for the meeting was to discuss a “Deadspin Swimsuit Project,” after all.) Now that she has a gig, she doesn’t want to backpedal into Rachel Uchitel territory. Anyone who wants to make her out to be Mother Theresa is delusional, however, because this wouldn’t be a story if she hadn’t kept those voicemails and photos and told Deadspin about them.

But back to Favre — right now, he’s doing the non-denial thing and the story is only getting bigger, as two more women have (sort of) come forward with their own allegations. I think even his most fervent supporters can see that he’s being evasive about Sterger, and the only reason that he’d do so is because he’s guilty.

Does Todd Haley now realize he needs to feed the ball to Jamaal Charles?

ATLANTA - AUGUST 13: Jamaal Charles  of the Kansas City Chiefs against the Atlanta Falcons at Georgia Dome on August 13, 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

The RBBC in Kansas City has been a hot topic for debate in the world of fantasy football. Actually, no it hasn’t. Fantasy owners are pretty much united in the belief that Jamaal Charles is the best, most explosive running back in Kansas City, yet Thomas Jones continues to start and eat into Charles’ fantasy production. Head coach Todd Haley is nothing if not stubborn (most NFL coaches are), so we weren’t going to see him tinker with what was ‘working.’

Now with the Chiefs’ loss to the Colts on Sunday, will we finally see the 60/40 or 65/35 (Charles/TJ) split that we were expecting when we drafted Charles in the 2nd, 3rd or even 4th round this summer?

The signs are encouraging and discouraging at the same time.

On one hand, Charles got 16 carries (for 87 yards, a 5.4 ypc average) to TJ’s eight (for 19 yards, 2.4 ypc). Charles was also targeted six times in the passing game (3-14), so he received 19 touches to Jones’s eight.

But what’s worrisome is that even after an 11-carry, 66-yard first half, Jones still started the third quarter. On the Chiefs’ first drive in the quarter, he had a 3-yard carry followed by a 6-yard carry before being stuffed for a 2-yard loss on a 3rd-and-1.

Time to punt.

At this point, Jones had 22 yards on six carries, which isn’t great, but it isn’t terrible either. (Charles was averaging 6.0 ypc at this point, so the disparity was clear.) On the Chiefs’ next drive, Charles rattled off carries of 14-yards and 7-yards before being pulled on a 2nd-and-5 from the Colts’ 12-yard line. Jones got the carry and lost five yards. One incomplete pass to Dwayne Bowe later and the Chiefs had to kick the field goal.

Charles played most of the rest of the way, but the Chiefs started throwing the ball more. In the final quarter, Charles had 11 yards on four carries along with two catches for 11 yards. Jones had one carry for two yards.

It appears that Haley realizes Charles is the better back, but he simply refuses to start him. This gives Jones an opportunity to get going early, and if he does have success on that first drive in each half, he’ll continue to vulture more carries from the Chiefs’ best offensive player.

They say that it doesn’t really matter who starts, but whoever is given the first opportunity is given the first opportunity to succeed. If Jones gets the running game going early, then Charles isn’t going to see as many carries over the course of the game. If Charles were starting, he’d have the first crack (and at 6.5 ypc, he probably wouldn’t give up the ball). And it’s not like Charles hasn’t proven he can carry the load. Over the last eight games of the 2009 season, he averaged 23 touches for 141 yards. With Jones on the roster, there’s no need to wear Charles down, but 18-20 touches is a good blueprint for offensive success.

In that respect, this week’s game is a good sign for Charles owners. But Thomas Jones is still the starter in Kansas City.

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