Author: John Paulsen (Page 119 of 937)

Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 14

CHARLOTTE, NC - NOVEMBER 21: Joe Flacco  of the Baltimore Ravens drops back to pass against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on November 21, 2010 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances.

As usual, I’ll discuss these players within the context of my weekly positional rankings, so remember — everything is relative.

Joe Flacco has been really good lately (267 yards, 2.0 pass TDs over his last seven games) and he has a matchup with the worst pass defense in the league. Good things should happen…Even with Asante Samuel back for the Eagles, I still like Jon Kitna this week. The Eagles have given up 24 pass TDs on the season and this one is shaping up to be a shootout…Josh Freeman should have a nice day against the Redskins, who have struggled all season against the pass. Washington has given up an average of 32 points over the last five games, so Freeman should find the endzone once or twice…Need a spot starter off the waiver wire? Alex Smith is back under center for the 49ers and he has an outstanding matchup against the Seahawks’ 30th-ranked pass defense.

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Are the Heat starting to figure it out?

Miami Heat guard Dwyane Wade (3), forward LeBron James (6), and forward Chris Bosh take a break during a time out in the second half of the opening night game against the Boston Celtics at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts on October 26, 2010.  UPI/Matthew Healey Photo via Newscom

At the beginning of the season, when the Heat went 5-4 and then 9-8, it was funny to listen to everyone saying “I told you so” with regard to how the Dwyane Wade/LeBron James dynamic just wasn’t going to work in Miami. Truth be told, I thought that it would take some time to work out the kinks, but I didn’t think that the Heat would be just one game over .500 that far into the season.

But after a pair of home wins against the Wizards and Pistons, the Heat went on the road in a tough environment in Cleveland and pulled out an emotional win. Since then, they beat a decent Atlanta team at home, and went on the road to beat the playoff-caliber Bucks and last night the Jazz, who are currently the #4 team in the West.

Some of the growing pains stemmed from the fact that Wade missed much of the preseason due to injury. And let’s not forget that the Heat lost its fourth- and fifth-best players (Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem) to injury. Those injuries are serious blows to the team’s championship hopes, but both players expect/hope to be back before the postseason.

The Heat are sitting at 15-8 in the #3 spot in the East, just three games back of the conference-leading Celtics. They are #3 in the league in defensive efficiency and #5 in offensive efficiency.

Miami faces Golden State and Sacramento on the road (both winnable), before coming home to play New Orleans and Cleveland. They then face the Knicks and Wizards on the road, so they could potentially push this winning streak to 12 before facing the surging Mavs in Miami on December 20.

2010 Fantasy Football: Week 14 Rankings

Well, the good news is that I’m still the top-ranked fantasy expert at FantasyPros, but the bad news is Week 13 wasn’t my best (#29 overall), and David Dodds has gained on me for two straight weeks. I still have a lead, but it’s getting smaller. Time to buckle down.

For the 9th week in a row, John Paulsen (The Scores Report) checks in as the #1 overall expert. While week 13 wasn’t Paulsen’s best showing (29th overall), his success throughout the course of the season has put him in the enviable position of having a cushion to work with as we head into the final 3 weeks of the competition. With that being said, it’s still too early for Paulsen to carve out space on his mantle (do people still have mantles?) for the first place trophy. That’s because David Dodds (FootballGuys) is coming on strong and he has cut into Paulsen’s lead for the 2nd week in a row. We should be in for an exciting conclusion to the competition if the trend continues.

I’d like to note that I was #7 last week in both DT and K rankings, which don’t count towards my overall score…so there’s that.

Below you’ll find my first stab at the Week 14 rankings. Be sure to check back as Sunday approaches because they’ll be updated as the news trickles in.


If the above widget isn’t working, there are text rankings below (but be warned, they aren’t as easily updated).

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Strength of Schedule (SOS): Week 14

What am I looking at?

Below you’ll see a table for each position with a list of team names on the left. If a square is pink, it means that the matchup is tough. If it’s green, it means it’s a favorable matchup. On the far right, the column “R16” shows the average SOS for the remaining weeks.

It’s important to note that this is NOT straight fantasy points allowed. I removed the bias of schedule by looking at the opponents of each defense and how they fared in their other games. For example, if a particular defense faced a series of great QBs, then that is taken into account in these tables.

How do I use these tables?

Generally speaking, I use strength of schedule as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players. Let’s say I’m trying to decide between starting BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Ronnie Brown. All else being equal, these two players are very close in my mind. But if BGE has a great matchup and Brown has a bad matchup, the choice is clear. In fact, if BGE just has a mediocre matchup while Brown has a bad matchup, I’d probably go with the Law Firm.

Be careful not to read too much into these tables. You aren’t going to bench Chris Johnson in a bad matchup unless you somehow have Arian Foster waiting in the wings.

Note: I apologize for the size of the text, but there really is no other way for me to present this data, at least not at this point.

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