Author: John Paulsen (Page 112 of 937)

Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 16

It’s week 16 and if your team is still alive, it’s not time to get cute. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Aaron Rodgers or Chris Johnson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances.

As usual, I’ll discuss these players within the context of my weekly positional rankings, so remember — everything is relative.

The Seahawks have been brutal against the pass, so I’d expect another good fantasy line from Josh Freeman, who has been very steady this season…Believe it or not, I have Tim Tebow ranked in the top 10 this week. He played pretty well against the Raiders last week and this week he faces a Texans’ pass defense that has given up an average of 275 yards and 2.2 pass TDs per game. I wouldn’t expect that yardage from Tebow, but 200 passing yards plus 2-3 total TDs is well within reach against Houston’s secondary…Need another sleeper? Rex Grossman has a nice matchup with Jacksonville’s 27th-ranked pass defense.

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2010 Fantasy Football: Week 16 Rankings

I’m happy to report that I finished #2 in the FantasyPros expert accuracy contest for Week 15, which means I am still #1 on the season (and I expanded my lead over the second-place expert, so that’s good). If you have had success using my advice, please take a moment and give me rating and/or leave feedback at my FantasyPros profile page.

Also, FantasyPros has asked me to participate in their Week 16 FanDuel contest. If you’d like to give it a shot, click here for details. Half the spots are already gone and it’s $5 to play. (There are cash prizes.)

Below you’ll find my first stab at the Week 16 rankings. Be sure to check back as the week goes on because they’ll surely change as the news trickles in.

If you have single-position questions (i.e. you are trying to decide which two RBs to start) please refer to the rankings. You can ask your PPR or flex questions in the comments section below and I’ll do my best to answer them. (It is the holiday season, after all, and I have family in town, so get your questions in early.)

If you’re having trouble seeing the FantasyPros ranking widget, click through at the bottom to a text listing of the rankings. Use common sense when making decisions on Sunday morning because I don’t know if I’ll be able to update these rankings before kickoff.

Off we go…


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Eli Manning’s one-man press conference [video]

This clip is making the rounds, but this wasn’t as unusual as the Monday Night ESPN crew made it out to be. The footage shows Eli Manning waiting around for the media to arrive at his post-game presser.

But, per ESPN, this was nothing unusual:

But this wasn’t a slight by the media or a case of reporters ignoring Manning, who didn’t have to wait too long. And it was nothing unusual. Following every game, Manning and other Giants stars such as Justin Tuck conduct their news conferences at the same time as the rest of their teammates are talking in the locker room.

Reporters in the locker room are alerted by the Giants public relations staff multiple times when Manning is heading to the podium. Although the players can walk directly to the podium area from their locker room, reporters have to take a roundabout route.

And Manning typically walks into a near-empty room at the start of his postgame news conferences and patiently waits for reporters.

Ok, so you’re straight — the ESPN Monday Night crew made a big deal out of something that wasn’t a big deal, per ESPN.com. Glad that’s settled.

Strength of Schedule (SOS): Week 16

What am I looking at?

Below you’ll see a table with a list of team names on the left and a list of positions (including PPR data) along the top. If a square is pink, it means that the matchup is tough. If it’s green, it means it’s a favorable matchup.

It’s important to note that this is NOT straight fantasy points allowed. I removed the bias of schedule by looking at the opponents of each defense and how they fared in their other games. For example, if a particular defense faced a series of great QBs, then that is taken into account in these tables.

How do I use SOS?

Generally speaking, I use strength of schedule as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players. Let’s say I’m trying to decide between starting BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Cedric Benson. All else being equal, these two players are very close in my mind. But if BGE has a great matchup and Benson has a bad matchup, the choice is clear. In fact, if BGE just has a mediocre matchup while Benson has a bad matchup, I’d probably go with the Law Firm.

Be careful not to read too much into these tables. You aren’t going to bench Chris Johnson in a bad matchup unless you somehow have Arian Foster waiting in the wings.

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Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 16

OAKLAND, CA - SEPTEMBER 14: Michael Bush #29 of the Oakland Raiders is tackled by Kevin Burnett #99 the San Diego Chargers along with other CHarger defenders on September 14, 2009 at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum in Oakland, California.  (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 15 picks fared:

#1 Patriots: 5 SK + 1 INT + INT RET TD + FR = 18 fantasy points
#2 Cardinals: 19 PA (2) + 2 SK + 1 FR = 5 fp
#3 Raiders: 2 SK + 1 FR + 1 Safety = 5 fp
#4 Chargers: 7 PA (6) + 6 SK + 1 INT = 13 fp
#5 Cowboys: 5 SK + 2 INT + 1 FR = 8 fp

Well, it wasn’t a disaster, but I was expecting more out of my #2 and #3 picks. The Cards didn’t do much against Jimmy Clausen, which was a surprise and the Raiders had a tough time wrangling Tim Tebow. The Chargers and Cowboys played pretty well however.

On the season, my picks are averaging 8.7 | 8.7 | 7.5 (1st, 2nd, 3rd) for an overall average of 8.3 fantasy points per game. Those are DT6 numbers when you account for each team’s bye week.

Let’s take a look at my Week 15 picks keeping in mind that to be eligible, defenses must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues. There are four teams that I like this week so hopefully fantasy owners can find at least one on their waiver wires. (If you still have the Pats from last week, just hold onto them. I like their matchup with the Bills.)

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