Finally the tide turned for me in college football. After going 1-11 over the past three weeks, I finally stumbled into some winners last week and went 3-1. Arkansas, Oklahoma State and Ole Miss were winners, while Michigan State won outright but crapped the bed against the spread.
Hopefully the darkness is behind me.
No. 2 Auburn @ No. 11 Alabama, 2:30PM ET, Friday
What an Iron Bowl matchup we have this year. For the first time in five seasons, the Tigers and Crimson Tide are both ranked heading into the season finale. Everyone knows what’s at stake for the Tigers, whose title hopes are on the line Friday in Tuscaloosa. Cam Newton has been Superman this year, but I think this is it. I think this is the day Newton lays an egg and a defense finally gets the best of him. Nick Saban is outstanding when it comes to taking away an opponents’ key player and there’s nobody more important to Auburn’s chances of victory than Newton. The Tigers have a habit of allowing opponents to hang around in the first half or worse, build a lead before stomping them in the final two quarters. But if they allow the Tide to build a lead on Friday, there may be no coming back for the Tigers. Roll Tide Roll.
THE PICK: ALABAMA -4
No. 4 Boise State @ No. 19 Nevada, 10:15PM ET, Friday
The Broncos have averaged 50 points during a 10-game winning streak over the Wolf Pack and I don’t think their fortunate runs out on Friday. Colin Kaepernick is among the nation’s leaders in total yards, averaging 308.7 per contest. There’s no question he’s a tremendous player, but Boise’s defense showed last week against Fresno State that its often overlooked by Heisman candidate Kellen Moore. The key for me in this game is this: Fresno State nearly pulled off an upset over Nevada three weeks ago in a 35-34 defeat. Boise crushed that same Fresno team last week 51-0 on the “Smurf Turf.” Granted, Fresno played Nevada at home and Boise on the road, but you catch my drift. I don’t think these two teams are in the same class when it gets right down to it.
THE PICK: BOISE STATE -14
No. 5 LSU @ No. 12 Arkansas, 3:30PM ET, Saturday
The line in this game has me leery of a trap, but I’m not going to overthink this one. Ryan Mallett had a difficult time with the Tigers last year in a 33-30 overtime loss. He completed just 17-of-39 passes for 227 yards and an interception and I believe he’ll struggle again on Saturday. LSU’s offense came alive lat week in a wild 43-36 win over Ole Miss. Jordan Jefferson threw for a career-high 254 yards and a touchdown, while also adding his sixth rushing score of the season. If the Tigers can play mistake-free football offensively, they win this game outright.
THE PICK: LSU +3.5
No. 17 South Carolina @ Clemson, 3:30PM ET, Saturday
For all intents and purposes, this game doesn’t mean anything for South Carolina. The Gamecocks have bigger fish to fry next week in the SEC Championship Game, so does anyone really think they’re going to lay it on the line this weekend against a non-conference foe (even if that foe is Clemson)? And it’s not like the Tigers have nothing to play for; a win would enhance their bowl prospects and not allowing South Carolina to win on their home turf is all the motivation they need in this one. Stephen Garcia and Co. have put together a nice season, but I’m playing the emotional angle here. Clemson wins outright.
THE PICK: CLEMSON +2.5
Season Record: 17-23. And just think: I had to go 3-1 last week just to get to 17-23. Yikes.
