All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings
As more and more leagues have moved to a point per reception (PPR) format, the tight end position has become increasingly important in fantasy circles. This is compounded by the NFL’s movement towards the utilization of pass-catching tight ends (i.e. players who can block a little, but are primarily on the field for their pass-catching ability).
Sometimes people scoff when we recommend drafting the top TE in the third round, but savvy fantasy owners who follow the principles of Value Based Drafting know that the top TE often carries 2nd round value at a 3rd round (or even a 4th round) price. This is the definition of value, and if that player performs to expectations, his fantasy owner is going to have a significant weekly advantage at the TE position. This translates to wins.
One nice thing about drafting a TE in the early to middle rounds is that it’s not too hard to pick out the good ones. Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates have both finished in the top 4 in each of the last three seasons. Jason Witten finished as TE1 in ’07 and TE2 in ’08, and with Terrell Owens gone, Tony Romo should be looking his way even more this season. Barring injury, Witten, Gates and Gonzo are a good bet to finish in the top 5 in 2009.
But don’t fret if you miss out on one of the premier guys. There are several players who have emerged in recent years as very dependable options. Chris Cooley was TE5 in each of the last two seasons (and TE7 the year before), Owen Daniels is just 26 and has two top 7 finishes in the last two years, Dallas Clark finished as the TE6 in ’07 and TE3 in ’08, and should have a solid ’09 with the departure of Marvin Harrison. And, of course, you could always roll the dice on Kellen Winslow, who had a disappointing ’08 (TE17) after finishing in the top 4 the previous two seasons.
And then there are the young, upside guys – Greg Olsen, John Carlson, Zach Miller, Dustin Keller and Kevin Boss – who have shown flashes of fantasy stardom and are all in their early- to mid-twenties.
Since most tight ends hold more value than their respective average draft positions, it’s tough to say which players are a good value and which ones aren’t. Instead, we’re going to list a few TEs and discuss when each player becomes a nice value. This assumes a 12-team PPR league where a starting TE is required. If your league doesn’t award a point per reception or doesn’t require a TE, then the position is tremendously devalued. (In other words, wait a while before burning a pick on a tight end.)
Jason Witten in the late-3rd/4th
Witten was a little dinged up in the middle of last season, but he got off to a great start and finished strong for his owners. We like him ahead of Gates and Gonzo because injuries aren’t really a concern and he’s still playing in a great situation with Tony Romo (and without Terrell Owens).
Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez in the late-4th/5th
Gonzo is out of Kansas City and he joins the Falcons’ offense, which focuses on a great running game and controlling the ball. However, Atlanta doesn’t really have a great second option to Roddy White in the passing game and the Falcons may open up the playbook a bit more now that Matt Ryan has a year of experience under his belt. Meanwhile, Gates has added some muscle to his frame and reportedly looks more chiseled heading into 2009. He struggled with injuries last season, but hopefully those are behind him. Gates isn’t quite as consistent as Witten or Gonzo, but he has a shot to reclaim TE1 this season. We prefer Gates to Gonzo since he’s not joining a new offense.
Dallas Clark in the 6th
The 30-year-old Clark has a reputation for being injury prone, but he has played in 15 games in four of the last five seasons. He was TE3 last season, and with the departure of Marvin Harrison, he figures to get his share of the targets in 2009.
Chris Cooley or Owen Daniels in the 7th/8th
These two probably represent the last of the really solid picks at tight end. Cooley, while fairly unspectacular, has been as steady as they come, finishing TE7, TE5 and TE5 over the last three years. He may not outscore other TEs on a week-to-week basis, but you aren’t going to lose much ground either. The same goes for the 26-year-old Owen Daniels, who is part of an up-and-coming offense in Houston. He has improved his ranking in each of the last three years, and was a great value pick in 2008. The Texans always seem to be trailing, which gives Daniels’ numbers a boost as they try to play catch up.
Greg Olsen or Kellen Winslow in the 8th
Olsen scored 13.9 ppg over the last four weeks, and that’s a sign of things to come. He has the best hands of any of the Bears’ receivers and QB Jay Cutler wasn’t afraid to throw to his tight end when he was in Denver. Winslow is a little risky because of his injury history, but the Bucs don’t have a good WR2 to take the pressure off of Antonio Bryant, so Winslow will have to take over that role.
John Carlson or Zach Miller in the 9th or 10th
If you’re going with one of these two after loading up at RB, WR and QB, you’re rolling the dice that these youngsters can continue on their upward career path. If they do, they should crack the top 10. Both scored better than 10.0 ppg over the last eight games (a good sign), Carlson plays with a good QB, and Miller plays for the Raiders who have to throw a lot late in games.
Brent Celek, Vishante Shiancoe, Heath Miller or Kevin Boss in the 13th
With L.J. Smith long gone, the job is Celek’s and if he can build on his 5.5-catch, 45-yard and 1.0-TD average over the last four games, he should be in for a nice year. Shiancoe was TE8 last year, mostly due to a 7-catch, 136-yard, 2-TD performance against the Falcons in Week 16. He had some clunkers, but he should be solid in ’09. Miller isn’t going to set the world on fire, but he has averaged 48-540-5 over the last two years and that looks like a reasonable expectation for this season. Boss is the upside guy in this group. With Plaxico Burress gone and the Giants’ WRs in flux, Boss has a chance to see a big increase in targets.
Bo Scaife in the 14th
Why is last year’s TE11 going in the 15th round? We’re not sure, though Jared Cook is a threat and Alge Crumpler is still there. But Bo Scaife is like a dive bar with some seriously sketchy clientele. It’s not a place you plan on going when you begin your evening; it’s where you end up at midnight. Scaife makes a solid backup or possibly spot-starter waiver wire fodder when a bigger name TD goes down.
Here are our official TE rankings, broken into tiers:
1. Jason Witten
2. Antonio Gates
3. Tony Gonzalez
4. Dallas Clark
5. Chris Cooley
6. Owen Daniels
7. Greg Olsen
8. Kellen Winslow
9. Zach Miller
10. John Carlson
11. Kevin Boss
12. Dustin Keller
13. Brent Celek
14. Visanthe Shiancoe
15. Heath Miller
16. Jeremy Shockey
17. Vernon Davis
18. Bo Scaife
19. Tony Scheffler
20. Todd Heap
21. Martellus Bennett
22. Marcedes Lewis
23. Brandon Pettigrew
24. Jermichael Finley
25. Robert Royal
26. Anthony Fasano
