I don’t know Roger Clemens and despite the advances in modern technology, I still think we’re a couple of years away from being able to walk around in someone’s head to help understand what they’re thinking.

That means I can only speculate as to why Clemens decided to plead not guilty on Monday to charges of lying to Congress about whether he ever used steroids or human growth hormone. Or better yet, why he also decided not to accept a plea agreement in order to face a lighter sentence.

But the reason, I speculate (along with the fact that he could lose future earnings and the chance of being elected to baseball’s Hall of Fame), is rather simple. Had he accepted the plea deal, he would have admitted guilt to everything: taking steroids, for lying about taking steroids and for calling Brian McNamee a liar. (And there’s no doubt that Clemens wants to give into McNamee – even if it meant that he would stay out of prison.)

Even if Clemens has told a shred of truth over these past couple of years, it won’t matter. All people will care about is that he a) cheated the game and b) lied about cheating the game.

That’s why I think he’d rather go to jail maintaining his innocence than be deemed a liar. That may sound ridiculous to most people and it should, but we’re talking about someone facing hard evidence and yet he continues to deny that he used steroids. Keep in mind that even if he does get locked up, he can still say that the judicial system screwed him or he was wrongfully accused.

Here’s another thought: He has bought into his lie. There are some people in this world that tie a lie so many times that they start to believe it. They’ve repeated to themselves enough times that they’re 6’3” and 230 pounds of shredded muscle that when they look in the mirror, the person starring back at them is 6’3” and 220 pounds. (Now you know what I do before I got to bed each night…right before I cry myself to sleep.)

Either way, I think “Rocket” is lying. And either way, I think he’ll go down maintaining his innocence, even if he eventually winds up behind bars.