Larry Coon, who developed the uber-valuable NBA Salary Cap FAQ, writes that the Denver Nuggets ultimately have control in the Carmelo situation.

So unlike Cleveland with James, Toronto with Bosh and the Phoenix Suns with Amare Stoudemire, the Nuggets have a trump card. They can leave their extension offer on the table, refuse to entertain trade offers and wait Anthony out. It would then be up to Anthony to choose between a bigger payday and playing for the team of his choosing.

But such a strategy would be very risky, so the Nuggets could decide to mitigate their risk and deal Anthony this season — which also avoids the chemistry issues that go with having an unhappy superstar on their roster.

In a vacuum, I’d agree with Coon that the Nuggets have control. However, if Carmelo officially requests a trade once a new GM is hired, and the Nuggets don’t move him, they’re going to have one very unhappy superstar. That can quickly poison the locker room and waste a perfectly good season of rebuilding.

Coon also discusses how Anthony put himself in position by signing a longer deal than LeBron and Wade did:

Anthony signed a four-year extension in 2006 that took effect in 2007 and runs through the 2010-11 season (he has the option of extending for one additional season, through 2011-12). In contrast, James, Bosh and Wade elected to sign shorter extensions so as to become free agents this summer rather than next.

The difference is potentially staggering — this summer marks the last free-agent market under the purview of the current collective bargaining agreement. When Anthony becomes a free agent, it will be under the terms of the next agreement.

This could represent very bad timing on Anthony’s part. The next agreement isn’t expected to do the players any favors; the owners are seeking significant changes such as some form of hard cap and a dramatic decrease in the percentage of revenues paid to the players. Should Anthony become a free agent in 2011, his chances of being paid commensurate to the extension he turned down might be nil.

Ouch. With the uncertainty of the new (more owner-friendly) collective bargaining agreement looming, Anthony has a difficult task — orchestrate a trade to a preferred team while at the same time signing the three-year extension that’s still on the table.

If this runs into the season, I don’t see the Nuggets trading Anthony by the deadline unless he starts to pout or the team is playing so bad in January and February that the writing is clearly on the wall. It’s more likely that the Nuggets will be somewhere in the Top 4 in the West and no one in Colorado will want the team to trade Melo away when there’s another playoff run on the horizon. I remember going around and around with Raptor fans who thought Chris Bosh was going to re-sign because the Raptors were playing decent ball and were sitting in the #6 spot in the East at the trade deadline. So much for that.

In the end, Anthony holds the cards because he can force a trade with grumpy play and/or mysterious injuries. Or he could accept the fact that he won’t get the extension but he’ll still know that he’ll have the opportunity to make more money in endorsements once he hits the New York market.

This is a player’s league and ultimately the players have control.