We lost Kansas and Villanova this weekend, but the other six #1 and #2 seeds are still standing. Bracket-wise, I thought I was dead after losing my overall winner Kansas, but it turns out that if my other FF picks come in — Syracuse, Duke and West Virginia — I can still win. Come on, Mountaineers!

Jeff Sagarin’s ratings are doing pretty well across the board. In games where the favorite has an advantage of three points or more, they are 23-7. Sagarin is 4-2 in predicting winners where the favorite has a 2-3 point advantage, and is 10-2 in games where the favorite has a 0-2 point advantage. That last part is pretty impressive, and way out of Sagarin’s norm in predicting winners in the last few years.

Ken Pomeroy’s ratings are 19-4 in picking picks where he gives the winner a 70%+ chance of winning, 4-2 in the 65-70% range, 2-2 in the 60-65% range and 11-4 in the 50-60% range. Basically, the slight favorites have ended up winning a vast majority of the games, and it’s helping Sagarin and Pomeroy’s records in tight matchups.

Here’s a look ahead at the Sweet 16 games:

Michigan State vs. Northern Iowa
Line: MSU -7 (off?)
Sagarin Line: MSU -2.08
Pomeroy: MSU (51.0%)
Even before Kalin Lucas’ Achilles injury, both Sagarin and Pomeroy saw this matchup as a virtual tossup. With Lucas out, I have to think the Panthers are the favorite. They have a nice mix of shooters and big men, and are coming off of a huge win against the top overall seed in the tournament. UNI’s confidence is high and they have all the tools to beat the Spartans, who will have to go without their best player. The game is in St. Louis too, so if the Panther faithful show up, UNI could have the crowd on it side. My pick: Northern Iowa +7 and straight up

Ohio State vs. Tennessee
Line: OSU -4.5
Sagarin: OSU -3.4
Pomeroy: OSU (70.4%)
The Vols are the kind of team that can give the Buckeyes trouble. They’re deep and athletic, but they’re inconsistent — no one knows which Tennessee team will show up. Will it be the late February version that beat Kentucky by 11? Or will it be the mid-March version that lost to the same team by 29 points in the SEC tournament? Ohio State has made it this far but looked a little shaky at times against UCSB and Georgia Tech. Still, the Buckeyes have arguably the best player in the tournament (Evan Turner) with a very capable supporting cast. My pick: Ohio State, straight up

Syracuse vs. Butler
Line: Syracuse -7
Sagarin: Syracuse -6.0
Pomeroy: Syracuse (66.8%)
Defensively-speaking, Syracuse has allowed the second-most three-point field goal attempts in the country, though they’ve defended the arc (31%) pretty well. Butler isn’t terribly accurate (34.2%) or prolific (6.8 made threes) from long range. However, the Bulldogs unleashed a barrage of threes against UTEP in the first round (13 for 31) before falling back to earth (7 for 20) against Murray State. Both teams are very solid defensively, so this game will largely be decided by Butler’s ability to stay in the game with the long ball. My pick: Syracuse, straight up

Kansas State vs. Xavier
Line: KSU -4.5
Sagarin: KSU -3.1
Pomeroy: KSU (62.3%)
Aside from Michigan State, Pomeroy’s numbers think that K-State may be the most vulnerable favorite in the Sweet 16. This is largely due to the quality of its opponent, Xavier, which is now ranked #17 in offensive efficiency and #37 in defensive efficiency. Xavier’s Jordan Crawford has 55 points in two games after averaging 20.2 points on the season. The Musketeers don’t have another player that averages more than 12 points per game, so if the Wildcats can slow Crawford down, they should be able to move on. My pick: K-State, straight up

Kentucky vs. Cornell‘
Line: UK -9
Sagarin: UK -8.7
Pomeroy UK (80.3%)
In a true David versus Goliath matchup, this appears to be the most clear cut of all the Sweet 16 matchups. While I’d love to believe that a team from the Ivy League could upend John Calipari’s band of mercenary one-and-doners, I don’t think it’s going to happen. Kentucky just has too much size and strength down low. Center Jeff Foote might be able to hold his own with the similarly-built Jon Leuer or Cole Aldrich, but DeMarcus Cousins is another story. It’s probably going to take a super human effort from three-point land (50%+) to keep the Big Red in it. My pick: Kentucky, straight up

West Virginia vs. Washington
Line: WVU -4.5
Sagarin: WVU -3.9
Pomeroy: WVU (66.2%)
Washington could give the Mountaineers some trouble. The Huskies will try to push, while West Virginia will try to slow the game down. The Mountaineers don’t really seem to blow teams out — in their seven wins against ranked teams, they won by an average of 8.6 points — so it’s tempting to take the Huskies to beat the spread. The potential matchup between Quincy Pondexter and Da’Sean Butler should be a beauty, though West Virginia could throw Devin Ebanks at Pondexter as well. In the end, I think WVU will have enough to advance, but I’ll take the Huskies and the points. My pick: Washington +4.5, WVU straight up

Duke vs. Purdue
Line: Duke -8
Sagarin: Duke -7.3
Pomeroy: Duke (79.3%)
I honestly don’t know how Purdue made it this far without Robbie Hummel. On the surface, this looks like a contrast of styles, but Duke actually plays at a slower pace than the Boilermakers do, so the Blue Devils will be very comfortable in a grind-it-out, half court affair. Both teams are elite defensively, but only Duke is elite on the other end of the court, and that gives them the edge. They could very well cover, but eight points is a lot to give up in a game that will be decided in the half court. My pick: Duke, straight up

Baylor vs. St. Mary’s
Line: Baylor -3.5
Sagarin: Baylor -3.2
Pomeroy: Baylor (68.1%)
I’m a believer in the Gaels. After watching the Richmond game, I picked St. Mary’s to upset Villanova and they came through. (Well, to be honest, I officially picked them to cover, but if you ask Anthony Stalter, he’ll confirm that I liked them to win outright as well. Sigh.) They have a great big man in Omar Shamhan and surround him with several skilled players who can pass and shoot the three. The only reason I’m a little worried about their chances is that the game is in Houston, which is a fairly short drive from Baylor’s campus in Waco. Still, St. Mary’s thrived in a tough atmosphere in Providence, so there’s no reason they can’t keep it close against a Baylor team that has looked shaky in its first two games. The Bears do have some bigs they can throw at Shamhan, so if he gets into foul trouble, things could get ugly. Let’s hope he doesn’t. My pick: St. Mary’s +3.5 and straight up

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