Friday brings some sense of normalcy
After a wild and wacky opening day, things settled down quite a bit on Friday, with the higher seeds winning 13 of 16 games. The only upsets — #10-seeded Georgia Tech and Missouri, and #12-seed Cornell — didn’t seem like upsets at all. Georgia Tech and MIZZOU were both “live dogs,” while that Temple/Cornell matchup was hyped as an upset special as soon as the bracket was announced. If the Big Red hadn’t won, it would have been a disappointment (like the Siena Saints).
Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin are both 25-7 in picking games by all margins, but Pomeroy is faring better with the big favorites, going 15-2 over the first two days in games where the favorite has a 70%+ chance of winning. Sagarin is just 16-5 in games where one team has a 3+ point advantage. He’s actually doing better overall with games in the 0 to 3-point range (9-2).
Bracket-wise, it was a bloody first two days, but I think I made it through all right. Fifteen of my Sweet 16 teams are still alive (G-Town the only goner) and I still have all of my Elite 8 teams. I’m sure there are more than a few people who had Temple, Vanderbilt, Marquette and Notre Dame winning two games. It’s nice to win a lot of first round matchups, but it won’t matter much if you lose a Final Four team or two in the first couple of days. Still, it hurts to go 9-11 in games seeded 5/12 through 8/9. I picked a lot of upsets — SDSU, Minnesota, Siena, Florida St. — and didn’t pick the ones that came in — Old Dominion, Washington, Cornell, Ohio or Northern Iowa. But I’m still alive, and that’s all that matters.
My first three bets went 2-1, with St. Mary’s and Georgia Tech winning and Utah St. getting worked over pretty well by Texas A&M. I like St. Mary’s +4.5 and Ohio +8.5 today.
Today’s action starts with three potential upsets — Nova/SMC, Butler/Murray St. and Tennessee/Ohio — but I’m also looking forward to seeing if BYU can hang with Kansas State. If the Cougars can pull the upset, they’ll be heading back to Salt Lake City to potentially play two games 45 minutes from campus.
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Posted in: College Basketball, March Madness
Tags: 2009-10 College Basketball, 2009-10 college basketball season, 2010 NCAA Tournament, March Madness picks