To start with Round 1 (and see the scoring system and roster requirements), click here.
My team so far: 1) Chris Johnson, 2) Steve Smith, 3) Ronnie Brown
Heading into Round 4, I knew that the league’s 2 RB, 1 flex starting lineup would allow me to start 3 RB every week, so I had plenty of options at 4.05.
Here’s how the round started off: 37) T.J. Houshmandzadeh, 38) Aaron Rodgers, 39) Knowshon Moreno, 40) Jason Witten
I was surprised to see how all three of the other RBs I was considering at 3.08 — Ryan Grant, Marshawn Lynch and Reggie Bush — were available at 4.05. Had I known that this was going to happen, I might have gone with Tom Brady at 3.08. But the league’s starting requirements allowed me to capitalize on the value that I feel dropped to me in the fourth round.
Of the three, Bush is the most productive on a per game basis in PPR leagues, but he has missed 10 games over the past two seasons and just isn’t as dependable as the other two guys. I ran the numbers for Grant and Lynch, and Grant has averaged 14.1 ppg since he became the starter in Green Bay while Lynch has averaged 15.1 ppg in his two seasons in the league. Lynch is more involved in the Buffalo passing game, so that helps his overall numbers.
Then there’s the whole three-game suspension thingy, which is the reason that Lynch is available in the fourth round in the first place. Otherwise, he’d likely be a late first round or early second round pick. Last year, we saw two players — Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall — see their stock fall in the preseason due to suspension and proceed to light it up once they returned. Marshall finished as WR4 after missing the first game and Smith finished as WR10 after missing the first two.
I took a closer look at the schedules of Grant and Lynch and found that Lynch had a distinct advantage over the last 13 games. Buffalo has two tough rushing matchups in the first three weeks, so that leaves a decisively easier schedule over the remainder of the season. In fact, Lynch projects to face the second easiest schedule of any running back over that span. This, combined with Grant’s struggles last season and Lynch’s overall superior productivity, convinced me to draft the Buffalo RB at 4.05. Sure, I’ll have to burn a middle round pick on Lynch’s backup (Fred Jackson), but I think it’s worth it to lock up Lynch after his suspension is over. (Let’s not forget that he’s one of the scariest-looking guys in the league.)
Round 4, Pick 5: Marshawn Lynch, RB
The rest of the round went like this: 42) Vincent Jackson, 43) Reggie Bush, 44) Ray Rice, 45) Eddie Royal, 46) Antonio Gates, 47) Ryan Grant, 48) DeSean Jackson
I think Grant is a great value at 4.10, and had I known that he’d be available there, I might have pulled the trigger on the aforementioned trade in the third round. I’m not entirely sure who I would have taken at 3.03, as Wes Welker and Clinton Portis were both gone by then. My top three players probably would have been Pierre Thomas, Dwayne Bowe and Ronnie Brown, and I ended up with Brown at 3.08 anyway.
