As more and more keeper leagues pop up, August has become the month where fantasy owners have to decide which players they will keep. Sometimes this is an easy decision, but at other times, it may seem impossible.
I’ve been in the same keeper league for almost 10 years. Every summer we can freeze four players (with no draft pick penalty) as well as a prospect, which is defined as a player entering his second or third year in the league who has not finished in the top 20 at his position in his career. To freeze a prospect, we have to give up a 4th round pick.
Some owners are too forward-looking with regard to keepers. This is a great trait to have in dynasty leagues, where you holdover your roster from year to year, but in a keeper league where you only carry 2-4 players, being too forward-looking is a handicap. There’s one owner in our league who is always a year or two too early on a player. He picks players that will eventually be stars, but they won’t be on his roster when stardom finally hits.
When deciding between two players, my first concern is how much each player will be able to help me this year. I am not interested in winning the championship in four or five years. I want to win it now. So if Player A is 29 years-old and holds second round value and Player B is 23 and holds fourth round value, I’m going with Player A. He should have 2-3 good years left and that’s about as far out as my window extends.
However, if the two players are within a round in terms of value, things can change. Take LaDainian Tomlinson and Chris Johnson or Steve Slaton. LT2 is still a top 10 RB, and if he bounces back this season, he has a good shot of finishing in the Top 5. But he’s on the wrong side of 30 and showed signs last season of wearing down. Johnson and Slaton are both 23, and both finished ahead of Tomlinson last season. Even though I give LT2 an edge this season, I’d rather keep Johnson or Slaton, because they project to be top 10 backs for the next five years. In this case, Tomlinson’s current (perceived) edge does not outweigh Johnson or Slaton’s long-term value.
Then there’s the case of Kevin Smith, who finished as RB17 last season and is being drafted RB18 this year. All else being equal, I’m going to hold onto Tomlinson, because his value for 2009 outweighs Smith’s long-term upside. Now if there’s a price, things can change. Say I have to give up a 1st round pick for Tomlinson, but only have to give up a 4th for Smith. In that case, I’d keep Smith (because he’s a good value in the 4th) and use my 1st round pick on another player.
