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Seattle dominates Green Bay

The first game of the 2014 season is coming to an end, and it still looks like the 2013 season.

Seattle still tackles well, and the Packers still suck at tackling. And while Aaron Rodgers is still very good at playing quarterback, he can’t beat the Seahawks by himself.

I know the Packers won a Super Bowl with Dom Capers running the defense, but that unit has been a disaster ever since.

Meanwhile, with a healthy Percy Harvin, the Seattle offense is even tougher to stop, as Russell Wilson continues to do a good job distributing the ball to his playmakers.

It will be hard to bet against them at home.

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Seattle defense destroys Denver in Super Bowl

It’s all too easy to make bold proclamations right after a sporting event, and I hate when people are prisoners of the moment. But the Seattle Seahawks defense was amazing tonight as they completely dominated a Denver Broncos offense that rewrote the offensive record book this year. People are already comparing them the the 1985 Chicago Bears and other great defenses. That debate can happen on another day as far as I’m concerned.

What they did tonight was truly impressive against Peyton Manning. They also did it in an era where it seemed that all the rules were rigged in favor of the offense. But the final score was also indicative of a game that completely got away from Denver. That just happens sometimes, and tonight nothing went right for Peyton’s crew. Throw in turnovers and special teams and we witnessed a complete meltdown. But all of it started with the Seattle defense.

That said, we’ve seen this story before. Look at the three greatest quarterback seasons of all time, and we see that Dan Marino, Tom Brady and now Peyton Manning ended up losing the Super Bowl against an excellent defense. We also remember Jim Kelly and the high-flying Bills getting stopped by Bill Parcels and the Giants. So in one respect this shouldn’t be a huge surprise.

As for Russell Wilson, the kid deserves a ton of credit. He proved many of us wrong and he’s a Super Bowl champion in his second season. But let’s not overstate things here as well. Russell Wilson was riding the Seattle bus, not driving it. Calling him one of the greats is overreacting, as is calling him Trent Dilfer. Tonight he did what he had to do, though early in the game Seattle settled for two field goals when Denver was doing everything possible to give them the gang. Fortunately, the defense and special teams took over, and Russell Wilson and the offense could coast to the win.

2014 Super Bowl XLVIII Free Pick

Super Bowl XLVIII: Broncos vs. Seahawks, 6:30PMET
Whether it’s because of the overreaction to Richard Sherman’s outburst following the NFC title game or the fact that Peyton Manning can see the light at the end of his career, the Broncos have become “Joe Public’s” team for Super Bowl XLVIII.

It’s hard to blame the betting public for wagering on the Broncos at a near 70-percent clip. Teams have a difficult enough time beating Manning when he has six days to prepare for them, let alone two weeks. Denver also is a matchup nightmare for any defense thanks to Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker and Knowshon Moreno, and John Fox and Jack Del Rio has the defense playing as well right now as any point in the season.

Do you feel a “but” coming on?

I like the Seahawks. I’d shop around until I found the line at 3 or bet it up to a field goal, but it wouldn’t shock me if Seattle won outright. The team with the No. 1 defense in the regular season has often fared well in the Super Bowl, going 12-4 straight up over the history of the game. Not only did Seattle have the best defense in the league this year, the referees often “let ‘em play” in the Super Bowl, which benefits the physical nature of the Hawks’ back seven.

It’s not easy, but the way to beat Manning is to disrupt his timing with his receivers, just like the Colts did to Denver in Week 7. Indianapolis won that game in large part because its defense forced three turnovers and Andrew Luck played mistake-free football, but the Colts’ cornerbacks also got their hands on the Broncos’ receivers at the line of scrimmage and often re-routed them off the ball. That flustered Manning and while he still threw for nearly 400 yards and three touchdowns, it was a enough to send Denver to its first loss.

The Seahawks play “Cover 3″ better than any team in the league thanks to Pete Carroll. Outside of Week 2 when he shadowed Anquan Boldin (and subsequently shut him down), Sherman doesn’t “travel” a lot but he and his fellow cornerbacks know Carroll’s system perfectly. The Hawks like to funnel everything inside to where all-everything safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor can make plays between the hashes. K.J. Wright, Malcolm Smith and Bruce Irvin can also be a handful to deal with in coverage from their linebacker positions.

Carroll is also multiple with his fronts, meaning that half of his defensive line will play one-gap while the other half or at least some personnel will play two-gap. That can also cause confusion for an offensive line, especially one like Denver that uses a zone blocking scheme. It doesn’t happen often, but if you can confuse Manning and/or his offensive mates, that’s another way to beat the Broncos.

Speaking of Carroll, he’s likely to do something in this game to steal a possession or take a shot down field in order to come up with the big play. Fox, for as solid as he is, often plays things conservatively and I think in the end that could cost him. We saw what happened the last time Manning was in the Super Bowl and Sean Payton rolled the dice with an onsides kick. In the battle of Carroll versus Fox, I’m siding with the coach that’s going to roll the dice.

On the other side of the ball, there’s no question that Seattle’s offense is a concern. They haven’t been right in over a month. But hopefully Darrell Bevell has discovered something over the last two weeks and realizes that he has neutered Russell Wilson to the point of diminishing returns. When the handcuffs were off Wilson in the second half of the NFC title game, he delivered. While the offense still runs through Marshawn Lynch, Bevell needs to allow his young quarterback to make plays. And while Wilson is a Super Bowl virgin, he’s also one of the more poised young signal-callers in the league. Having Percy Harvin back should also help, if nothing else than to make Denver be aware of him.

In the end this is one of the best Super Bowl matchups we’ve seen in quite a while. Nothing would necessarily surprise me although the only true value in this game is taking the points with a Seattle team that should thrive in the underdog role.

SUPER BOWL XLVIII FREE PICK: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +3

Peyton Manning’s big day

If you’re not sick of hearing about Peyton Manning yet, just wait till after today’s Super Bowl. Win or lose, we’ll be hearing a ton about Peyton and how this game will affect his legacy. He’s intense to the point of being annoying to his teammates, because he’s so obsessed with the details. Russell Wilson potentially has that same attribute, if not the classic NFL quarterback pedigree. He’s younger and plays a much different style. The question now is whether he can win a Super Bowl with that style.

The era of the dropback passer is alive and well irrespective of the trend of the mobile quarterback. The guys winning Super Bowls come from the same mold. Bigger guys who can kill you by throwing from the pocket under pressure. If Peyton wins, that trend continues. If Russell Wislon wins, then perhaps we really are seeing an evolution of the NFL game.

Early Super Bowl money being placed on Denver over Seattle

The early lines for the 2014 Super Bowl were all over the place last night. At first Seattle was favored on many sportsbooks and then the money came flooding in on Denver. Now we’re seeing the Broncos as 1.5 to 1 point favorites in most places.

In the video above, Howie Long makes a great point – that the officiating will play a big role in this game regarding how much Seattle defenders can get away with versus Denever receivers, and likewise whether Denver can run their pick plays with impunity. NFL officiating has become a disgrace, so expect plenty of controversy.

Also, we’re seeing two completely different quarterbacks. Peyton Manning is a classic drop back passer and one of the all-time greats. Russell Wilson is a mobile quarterback who makes big plays but also huge mistakes with his improvizing. Frankly, Wilson is a bit overrated – he’s riding the Seahawks bus to the Super Bowl, not driving it.

It should be a great game.

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