As someone who loyally subscribes to the “wait for pitching” strategy on draft day, I’m always on the lookout for value starters. Experience has shown me that there are plenty of nice starting pitching bargains in the middle and late rounds every year, and if I’m diligent enough, I can also add pitching via the waiver wire during the season. All of which allows me to load up on as much hitting as I can in the early rounds, understanding that the more offensive firepower I have on my roster, the easier it will be to trade for a top-line starter should I find myself in need of reinforcements for the stretch run.
Of course, that doesn’t mean I ignore pitching on draft day. Far from it. Those SP bargains I mentioned above are available each year, if you know what to look for. Sure, it’s nice to have a reliable horse like Johan Santana or Brandon Webb anchoring your pitching staff, but the cost of adding someone like that is usually a little too steep for my tastes. So instead, my goal is to take five to seven solid starters who can deliver quality ratios while racking up strikeouts. Ideally, I also look for guys who pitch for successful teams, hoping that will translate to wins for my team.
The guys I target tend to fall into one of four categories: Young Guns, Rebound Vets, Undervalued Arms and Late Steals. As I’ve admitted in previous posts, I’m a sucker for upside but that doesn’t mean I’ll fall for any promising youngster with a lively arm. I’m also a sucker for a good revival story so I’m always looking for veterans with a solid track record whose stock has fallen because of an off year, while guys in the undervalued category tend to fly under the radar despite their consistent production. Finally, I try to wrap up every draft with one or two late-round picks that could pay off big in the long run.
Below, I’ve listed several pitchers I’ve got my eye on in each of these four categories, using the Average Draft Position (ADP) from ESPN’s draft kit as a guide. I’ve included the ADP as well as the SP rank (SP13, for example) for each of the 16 starters below. These aren’t, of course, the only guys who would qualify in these categories, just the ones at the top of my list. If you’re thinking about stockpiling bats early in your draft, maybe they should be at the top of your list too.
If you’re a fantasy baseball or football owner and you don’t read Rotoworld every day (or, in my case, several times a day), you’re not only missing out, but you may very well be costing yourself a chance at a league title. As far as free and comprehensive fantasy advice goes, nobody does it better than Rotoworld. Their player updates pull from all sorts of local and national sources and are updated throughout the day, and their columnists offer up plenty of great insight, both during the season and leading up to draft day. They even have their own draft guide, although you’ve got to pay $15 for that.
So when I draft, I want as much predictability as possible. Therefore, my two touchstones are getting as many players in their age peak (roughly 25-30), with an added focus on injury history. Such a strategy provides no guarantees—no strategy does—but puts me in the best position to consolidate my gains. And as a bonus—a healthy player of peak age, more likely than not, is going to be a player who has that surprise season you were hoping for from the rookie, anyway.
I’m always amazed by how many owners don’t pay attention to age or injury history during their drafts, especially in the early rounds. Every year, someone drafts a guy like AJ Burnett too early, and every year Burnett goes down with some kind of injury. Go ahead and take Lance Berkman in the second round — I’ll gladly wait another round or two and snag the younger Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder. Upside, upside, upside.
Megdal goes on to target some of the likely first-rounders that he’s avoiding this year:
Ian Kinsler is another top-12 player with red flags of the white bandage variety. For the third straight season, he showed that when healthy, he is an offensive force at a position, second base, with very few of them. But he played in just 121 games, this time due to a sports hernia, and his season-high through three seasons is 130. No reason he can’t help a fantasy team—but let someone else draft his injury history first.
Also consider dropping Jimmy Rollins, who played in 137 games last season and already has back issues in spring training, and Carl Crawford, who was limited to 109 games with a finger injury last year. Crawford in particular appears to be healthy this spring—but grab the guy who just put up 150-160 games in 2008. An extra 10-15 games out of your best player could be the difference in some leagues.
Instead of Kinsler, who averaged fewer than 124 games per season from 2006-2008, how about Brandon Phillips, who has averaged around 150 games per season? Phillips is 27, suggesting that his best year may come in 2009.
I’m pretty high on both Kinsler and Phillips, as I noted in my second base preview, but while Kinsler is younger (by one year) and may arguably have a little more upside, Phillips has the much healthier track record and can be snagged a little later than Kinsler, which likely makes him the better value of the two. When you consider the premium you’ll need to pay for Kinsler (a late first or early second rounder), Phillips becomes that much more intriguing.
Megdal wisely suggests not becoming a slave to this (or any) draft strategy, because remaining too loyal to a plan could close you out of any mid- to late-round bargains that may fall into your lap. But when it comes to debating the merits of Carlos Delgado vs. Adrian Gonzalez, AJ Burnett vs. Edinson Volquez, or Carlos Lee vs. Nick Markakis, you’d be wise to go with the younger, healthier guy.
Second base is home to one of the biggest draft-day dilemmas: What to do with Chase Utley? I covered Utley’s situation in more detail here, but as you’ll see in the rankings below, I’m not concerned enough about his recovery from hip surgery to drop him from the top slot at second base. Reports out of spring training have all been positive and Utley maintains that he’ll be ready for Opening Day. As long as he doesn’t suffer a setback between now and my draft, that’s good enough for me.
Of course, my refusal to drop Utley’s ranking has as much to do with his talent as it does the general lack of depth at second base. Sure, there is some talent at the top of the list but once you get eight or 10 deep, things start looking rather bleak. Fortunately, there is a fair amount of upside to be harvested here, with several 28-and-under guys who could outperform expectations this season. You’ll have to pay a premium for some (like the reigning AL MVP) while others can be snagged in the mid- to late-rounds (like Arizona’s new potential leadoff man), but they all have the kind of upside that I look for on draft day. And while upside alone won’t win you a fantasy title, it’s a convenient tiebreaker that makes a guy like Brandon Phillips a little more attractive than the steadier but older Brian Roberts.
With that in mind, here is some of the young talent you’ll want to consider this season, and see below for my top-25 second basemen.
You’re hunched over your desk, boring a hole into your cheat sheet. “Michael Young or Joey Votto?” You’re up in two picks. Make that one pick. Panic sets in. “Michael Young or Joey Votto?” You’re running out of time. Your eyes dart right to left between the two names. “Michael Young or Joey Votto?!” Time’s up; you need to make a choice. “MICHAEL YOUNG OR JOEY VOTTO?!” You burst into tears.
Okay, maybe you don’t actually cry…or maybe you do, I don’t know. Either way, you can potentially avoid this kind of draft day drama entirely if you spend a little more time preparing beforehand. Sure, you probably at least have one or two cheat sheets from your fantasy magazines or websites in front of you. Maybe you even took the time to put together your own cheat sheet. Unfortunately, that just means you’re looking at a jumbled mess of names organized by position. What does it all really mean?
While Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler both broke out in a big way last year, there is no second baseman I’d rather own than Chase Utley. That said, Utley is one of the toughest players to get a read on heading into draft season. There’s no doubting the Philly slugger’s studliness — his average season since 2005 is a cool .305-29-103-110-13, and there are few cushier gigs in baseball than hitting third in Philly’s stacked lineup. But after belting 25 homers before the break last season, Utley’s power evaporated in the second half thanks to a hip injury that required offseason surgery. He says he’ll be back in time for Opening Day and early spring training reports have been positive, but owners are still understandably concerned. When healthy, Utley is not only a surefire first-round selection but, considering the lack of depth at second base, he’s also a likely top-five pick in most drafts. How dramatically should the injury concerns affect his draft stock? I suppose that depends on how lucky you feel. Punk.
We’ve all heard the story of Mike Singletary’s halftime mooning a couple of weeks ago, but the guys at Bang! Cartoon wonder if this will become a league-wide problem. Check out the ‘toon below but beware of Crennel in Cleveland!
Can the Patriots make a Super Bowl run without Brady? Will they even make the playoffs?
Is Aaron Rodgers really this good?
Was Brandon Marshall serious when he said in the preseason that he was going to catch 140 passes this year? Does he know he’s got 14 more games to get there?
Did DeSean Jackson do it on purpose? No, seriously. The guy has a monster ego, so maybe he figured that dropping the ball before he crossed the goalline would make for a bigger story than a rookie simply snagging his first TD pass. …Okay, maybe not; but still….
Who put a voodoo hex on Seattle’s receivers?
But one of the more interesting questions floating out there is, why doesn’t Troy Brown have a job? He’s not a game changer by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s dependable. He’s also versatile, being able to play receiver or defensive back; battle-tested, having spent nine years in New England; and, of course, he’s a proven winner, playing a key role on three championship teams.
True, Brown is 37 and has a sketchy injury history, but wouldn’t he make sense to a lot of teams as added depth at receiver and in the secondary? Aren’t the Seahawks down three or 12 receivers? The Saints seem to make some sense, considering the Marques Colston injury and their leaky defense. As a Browns fan, I can personally vouch for Cleveland’s crummy play on each side of the ball, and with Donte Stallworth and Joe Jurivicius both down, there’s a need at receiver.
Of course, this all goes out the window if Brown simply isn’t healthy, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Earlier this week, a Boston Herald report said that Brown was set to retire today, but now the Boston Globe says Brown is still on the fence.
“We’ll see,” [Brown] responded. “There’s always a chance [of playing].”
When guys like Koren Robinson are getting plucked off the scrapheap, how is it that Troy Brown is still unemployed?
“LeBron (James) isn’t a Cleveland guy. LeBron only plays for the Cavaliers, and who knows if he even likes the Cavaliers? He doesn’t like the Indians. He doesn’t like the Browns.”
The Browns receiver made his comments after LeBron James hung out on the Dallas sidelines during pregame warmups prior to the Cowboys/Browns game Sunday afternoon, hugging Terrell Owens and Adam “Don’t Call Me Pacman” Jones, chatting with owner Jerry Jones, and wearing a Yankees cap.
Cleveland is most definitely a football city, but LeBron is without question the face of Cleveland sports right now. That doesn’t mean that he has to root for every Cleveland sports franchise, but he crossed the line when he wore a Yankees hat to the game last night. That’d be like David Ortiz donning a Peyton Manning jersey during a Colts/Pats game in New England or, even worse, Tom Brady wearing a Yankees hat to a Sox/Yankees game at Fenway. You just don’t do it.
At the time, what irked me most wasn’t that LeBron wore the hat to the game, but that he taunted the fans — who are, of course, his fans during basketball season — by holding the hat above his head and egging on the crowd. It was an immature and classless move, and at the time I said that it spoke very poorly of his so-called loyalties to his hometown.
And now this.
As I mentioned previously, athletes are fans too, and they can root for whomever they want. I’m not ragging on LeBron for being a Cowboys fan or a Yankees fan or even a Bulls fan, all of whom he rooted for as a kid growing up in Akron. I do think it’s fair to call him a frontrunner, since all three of those teams were winning titles back then, but that’s not the point.
In fact, LeBron choosing to publicize his allegiances in front of Cleveland fans and, in the Indians/Yankees case, even taunting the fans in the process, isn’t even the point anymore. The point now, as Braylon Edwards pointed out, is simple: LeBron James isn’t a Cleveland guy. And that’s very bad news for the Cavaliers and their fans.
LeBron can opt out of his contract after the 2009-10 season, at which point the Cavaliers will be able to offer the star forward more money than any other team in the league. That may sound like a big advantage for the Cavs, and maybe it will prove to be. But working against Cleveland is the fact that LeBron’s contract with Nike will reportedly pay him more if he moves to a larger market like New York or LA. Maybe that’s just a rumor, because I haven’t found any concrete numbers on this, but it’s a widely reported rumor that LeBron has never bothered to shoot down. Add on top of that the fact that LeBron would make even more money in endorsements playing in a big city while also inflating his already enormous worldwide popularity, and however many more millions the Cavaliers can offer LeBron will look like chump change in the final equation.
And then, of course, there’s LeBron’s buddy Jay-Z, who just happens to be part owner of the New Jersey Nets. The Nets just happened to shed a bunch of salary by trading Richard Jefferson this offseason. They also just happen to be planning to move to Brooklyn and open a brand new arena in 2010. And Brooklyn just happens to be LeBron’s “favorite borough” in his favorite city of New York.
Throughout all of this city-wide “will he stay or will he go?” fretting, the one ace the fans thought they had up their sleeve was the fact that LeBron was a hometown guy who actually wanted to stay in Cleveland. Well, I’m not buying it, and neither is Braylon Edwards:
“He’s a guy from Akron who likes everybody but his hometown. I don’t know how that’s possible, but it is what it is, and he is who he is. You know, it’s LeBron.”
After bolstering their backfield by signing former Bengals running back Rudi Johnson, the Detroit Lions informed Tatum Bell of his release. Shortly after that, Johnson informed Matt Millen that someone had made off with his bags:
Johnson left his bags outside CEO Matt Millen’s office while he met with team officials and, ultimately, worked out a deal with the team.
So when Johnson came back to get his bags, they were nowhere to be found. Johnson and Millen were stumped.
Enter the eye in the sky.
The team checked the videotapes generated by the team’s in-house surveillance system, and they quickly identified the culprit.
So who might it have been? None other than Tatum Bell, who lost his gig with the Lions after Rudi arrived.
Per the source, Bell took the bags to the house of a female acquaintance. When confronted on the matter, Bell offered up some cockamamie story that he thought the bags belonged to someone he knew. The girl, however, said that she hadn’t seen Bell in several months and he showed up out of the blue and asked her to keep the bags for a while.
Johnson eventually retrieved his bags and, reportedly, charges were not filed.
Times are undoubtedly tough for Bell right now. Jobless and with a reputedly poor work ethic, it may be quite some time before he lands another NFL gig. He was understandably desperate. And pissed. But the silver lining here is that Bell solidified his legacy with this one brilliant decision. He’ll no longer be remembered as an over-hyped, underachieving fumbler. Now, he’s the guy who stole Rudi Johnson’s luggage. How sweet is that?
Meanwhile, Lions fans should be grateful that Rudi didn’t have to pursue Bell on foot, since recent history suggests his hammy wouldn’t have survived the chase. In which case the Lions may have once again been in the market for a running back, and since Tatum Bell already knows the system….
