Will the ‘Curse of 370’ slow Turner down?
Michael Turner carried the ball 376 times last season, which is a bad omen if you believe in the “Curse of 370.”
The stat was “discovered” by Football Outsiders founder Aaron Schatz in 2004.
The “370 Curse” has reared its head in the Falcons locker room before.
Running backs who rush for more than 370 carries in a season will either have a significant decline or get hurt the following season. Only one running back, Eric Dickerson, has been able to beat the curse.
After Jamal Anderson powered the Falcons to the Super Bowl with 410 carries in 1998, he suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in 1999 and was never the same.
Gerald Riggs ran for 1,719 yards on 397 carries in 1985. He followed up that season with 1,327 yards on 343 carries but although he played five more seasons, he never eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark again.
Some of the latest players to succumb the curse include Seattle’s Shaun Alexander, Kansas City’s Larry Johnson, Tennessee’s Eddie George and Miami’s Ricky Williams.
For their part, the Falcons don’t believe Turner was overused, and when they need to run the ball, they’re going to call Turner’s number.
I like Turner this year, but I don’t think he’s going to rack up 370+ carries again this season. Assuming he doesn’t get injured, I expect him to carry the ball 320-350 times. He’s not a big part of the Falcons’ passing game, so that hurts his fantasy stock in PPR leagues.
It’s going to be interesting to see if Turner can avoid the “curse” this season.
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I wouldn’t worry about it too much. I’ll say he stays under 350 carries this year and some others like Norwood will get some more action.
I think one thing to keep in mind is that Norwood hasn’t shown the ability to run between the tackles yet. The Falcons would love to get him more touches, but to assume that Turner is going to see a significant decrease in carries this season would probably be a mistake.
That said, I agree with you that Turner probably won’t see 370 carries. But the Falcons have already stated that they’re not going to keep track of Turner’s carries and if they need to pound the ball inside, they’ll call his number.
I’m hoping that Norwood gets more action though. He’s so explosive in open space and such a weapon if he’s utilized. He can’t take a pounding because he’s not that big, but Mike Murlarkey needs to find creative ways to get Norwood the ball.
I think the curse states that it doesn’t matter if the Falcons limit his touches; since he went over 370 carries, the chances of him breaking down at some point in the season are high. Or he could just see a drop in ypc. Or he could be the next Eric Dickerson, maintain or improve his numbers, and become another exception that proves the rule.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2004/ricky-williams-
retires
1 big diff….total career caries. Turner is still fresh. The others were established RB’s that had over 370 carries. Turner is young, big, and coming off his first high carry season. He’ll be fine. Although a top 5 pick may be a bit high for him as we should expect a drop off from last season. I think a better indicator is his game by game performances from last yr. He tore it up vs. crap teams, but was mediocre against even half assed teams. Tougher schedule this yr plus more balance O = not a top 5 yr for Turner the burner. Prob top 10 though, so not the worst pick.
Wiley — check out the link “Another reason to be down on Michael Turner this season” in the Related Posts section above. It discusses his 2009 schedule.
What about Ladanian Tomlinson, he had 370+ carries and almost 70 receptions his second year in the league. I think it’s safe to say he beat the curse
Good question.
Here’s another interesting article, though not for the statistically faint of heart.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/07/drunkards-light-posts-and-m
yth-of-370.html