Tag: Santonio Holmes (Page 5 of 8)

      Revisiting the Santonio Holmes Postulate

      September 21, 2009 /

      Last week, I posed a theory that Santonio Holmes puts up much better numbers when the Steelers struggle to run the ball.

      Intuitively, this makes sense. The Steelers have always wanted to be a running team, and generally don’t cut the passing game loose unless they’re having real problems on the ground. In the 17 games over the past two-plus seasons where the Steelers have averaged fewer than 4.0 ypc, Holmes has averaged 4.3 receptions for 74 yards and 0.8 TD, which equates to 16.6 fantasy points per game. Last season, eight WRs — Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Antonio Bryant
      and Steve Smith — had higher averages.

      What does this all mean? Well, when the Steelers have trouble running (i.e. they are unable to rush for 4.0 ypc or more), then Santonio Holmes is a top 10 receiver. This happened in 17 of the Steelers’ last 34 games, and 12 of those 17 games were in 2008 or 2009, so as the Steelers continue to have bigger and bigger problems running the ball, Holmes’s average production should continue to rise.

      It’s worth noting that in games where the Steelers rushed for 4.0 ypc or more, Holmes averaged 3.7 receptions for 57 yards and 0.2 TD (or 10.5 fantasy points). These are WR30-WR35 numbers.

      In Week 2, the Steelers visited the Bears, who traditionally have a good rush defense. Pittsburgh running backs gained 99 yards on 19 carries, which equates to a healthy 5.2 yards per carry. But a good portion of those yards came on one play, a Rashard Mendenhall 39-yards scamper in the middle of the third quarter. Removing that play, the Steelers rushed for just 3.3 yards per carry.

      For his part, Santonio Holmes had a pretty nice day in the receiving game. He caught five passes for 83 yards, but dropped a couple of balls, including a potential TD in the endzone. Still, in PPR leagues, this is a very reasonable 13.3 fantasy points.

      Though the YPC doesn’t reflect it, the Steelers had a tough time running the ball on Sunday. And, once again, Holmes thrived. The Steelers play Cincinnati next week, and the Bengals have been pretty stingy against the run thus far, allowing just 3.6 ypc to opposing running backs. If the Steelers can’t get the Parker-Mendenhall-Moore RBBC going in the first half, Holmes should have another good day.

      Fantasy Football

      The curious case of Santonio Holmes

      September 11, 2009 /

      All right, a show of hands…how many of you thought that Santonio Holmes was going to start of the 2009 season with a 9-131-1 statline against the Tennessee Titans last night?

      Be honest.

      Holmes finished 2008 (his third season) as fantasy’s WR33, averaging 3.7 catches for 55 yards and 0.3 TD in 15 games. His ADP entering the season was in the 5th round, largely because of the numbers he produced in the playoffs. After a mediocre 2-25-0 start against the Chargers, he posted 2-70-1 against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game and 9-131-1 against the Cardinals in the Super Bowl. (You’re reading that right — Holmes had the exact same line in the Super Bowl as he did last night against the Titans.)

      Heading into the season, I thought Holmes was a nice value in the 6th round, or a decent pick in the 5th if I had to go WR and the other guys — Eddie Royal, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Anthony Gonzalez and Braylon Edwards — were already gone. Holmes just seemed overrated after winning the Super Bowl MVP. After all, this is a guy who finished no better than WR29 in PPR leagues in the last two seasons, and converted just 48% of his targets into catches in 2008. (The league average last season was 57.5%.)

      Holmes’ production seems to be at least partly dependent on how well the Steelers are running the ball. Over the past two-plus seasons (and including last night’s game), Holmes has posted 70-plus receiving yards in 13 games. In those games, the Steelers ran the ball well (4.0 ypc or greater) just three times: versus the Bengals and Rams in 2007 and again against the Bengals in 2008.

      Continue reading »

      Fantasy Football

      Top 7 reasons why Super Bowl XLIII was an Instant Classic

      February 5, 2009 /

      Brainz.org lists the top 7 reasons why Super Bowl XLIII was an instant classic:

      Santonio Holmes7. Arizona’s Three Goal Line Stands
      Who would’ve thought Arizona would have three goal line stands? Granted, Pittsburgh’s short yardage running game is subpar but Arizona’s run defense was mediocre in the regular season…

      6. Controversial Officiating
      I already talked about Roethlisberger’s near touchdown. There were other close plays that will be debated by sports fans for years to come…

      5. Two Great QB Performances from Possible Hall of Famers
      Neither team could run, so they had to go with the pass. This could’ve been an ugly game if the quarterbacks threw too many incompletions but both Warner and Roethlisberger came to play…

      4. The Longest Play in Super Bowl History
      The Cardinals were one yard from paydirt with 18 seconds left in the first half. They had no timeouts but it was first down. They could’ve taken a couple shots in the end zone. However, they only got one play because Harrison stepped in front of a Warner pass and returned it 100 yards for a touchdown. Until this play, Warner was 15 for 16 with five touchdowns in the red zone for the 2009 playoffs…

      3. Fitzgerald’s Insane Second Half
      Fitzgerald proved that you can’t keep a good man down. His only reception in the first half was in the two minute warning. But in the second half, he exploded with 6 receptions, 112 yards, and 2 touchdowns…

      2. The Greatest Super Bowl Comeback Ever… Almost
      The greatest comeback was in Super Bowl XXII. The Washington Redskins trailed the Denver Broncos 10-0 at the start of the second quarter, but scored 35 unanswered points to put the game away…

      1. Big Ben Does His Best Joe Montana Imitation
      …you can’t have an instant classic Super Bowl game without a late game winning drive. (Okay, there’s the Titans vs Rams game but that’s the exception.)…

      The article goes into more detail explaining every reason, so make sure to check out the link above to view the entire piece.

      The reasons listed above are pretty compelling. Yes, Super Bowl XLIII had several great moments (Harrison’s interception, Fitzgerald’s big play, Holmes’ TD catch). But for me, the game was sloppy on a whole, uneventful in the first half outside of Harrison’s touchdown, and often controversial at times. I thought it was one of the greatest fourth quarters of any Super Bowl played, but not one of the greatest games.

      If you want to be technical, I think Brainz.org is right – it was an instant classic. But so many people are coining XLIII the best Super Bowl ever played and I don’t think it even tops two other Bowls in the same decade (Super Bowl XLII between the Giants and Patriots and Super Bowl XXXXVIII between the Panthers and Patriots).

      NFL, Super Bowl

      Did Santonio Holmes really get two feet down?

      February 4, 2009 /

      If you look at these pictures from SPORTSbyBROOKS.com (via Will Leitch’s personal blog), yeah, Holmes did:

      Santonio Holmes

      Santonio Holmes

      Santonio Holmes

      From the looks of that second picture, it appears to me that he stuck both feet into the ground and therefore it was a touchdown. The top picture (which some media publications are using to prove that Holmes didn’t get two feet in), was likely taken either before or after the second photo. In fact, if you look at the first and third photos, Holmes has a piece of the turf stuck in his shoe. In the second photo, the turf appears to be absent, which would indicate that the first and third photos were shot after the second photo and therefore Holmes got his right foot down.

      Later I’ll be reopening the JFK case by looking at evidence photos, so make sure to stop back.

      NFL, Super Bowl

      Kawakami: Super Bowl XLIII was no classic

      February 2, 2009 /

      Tim Kawakami of the Mercury News writes that while Super Bowl XLIII was exciting, it wasn’t a classic.

      Larry FitzgeraldA classic? That was a fun Super Bowl, no question. A triple plot-twist, loop-de-loop carnival ride.

      That was a raucous fourth quarter Sunday evening, full of Arizona Cardinals grit and, eventually, a great Pittsburgh Steelers drive to win 27-23 in Super Bowl XLIII.

      Oh, and there was that stunning 100-yard interception return by Pittsburgh linebacker James Harrison to close the first half.

      But was that really a classic, Ali-Frazier Super Bowl? I doubt history will treat it that way.
      The protagonists were slightly less than epic and the action was just a bit too herky-jerk for instant masterpiece status. No Brett Favres or Lawrence Taylors in this game.

      All those penalties. The wide-open receivers when the last thing the defense could afford was to leave wide-open receivers. That third-quarter sag.

      Much better description: This was a classic example of the NFL’s Parity Era, when no team is good enough to dominate the Super Stage.

      After all those blowouts in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and all those Super Teams, we’ve now had two shriek-finish Super Bowls in a row and five straight that were close in the fourth quarter.
      The last blowout? Yep, Tampa Bay 48, Raiders 21 in Super Bowl XXXVII.

      So Larry Fitzgerald was outstanding Sunday. Kurt Warner, too. Santonio Holmes was a revelation. Harrison made the greatest single play in Super Bowl history, by my reckoning.

      But… this felt more like a good first-round playoff game that happened to have Bruce Springsteen at halftime and a spaceship capsule as the postgame stage.

      Agreed. It was a sloppy game for the most part and take away Harrison’s interception return and the first half was largely uneventful. That doesn’t mean the game wasn’t entertaining because it was. But a classic? That’s reach.

      NFL, Super Bowl

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