The rich get richer.
North Carolina landed the nation’s top recruit, swingman Harrison Barnes (pictured), as well as two elite guards, PG Kendall Marshall and SG Reggie Bullock. All three players were ranked in the top 20 of ESPNU’s Top 100 prospects.
Roy Williams must be a happy man.
Photo from fOTOGLIF
It’s official: Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington are forgoing their remaining college eligibility and declaring for the 2009 NBA Draft.
Lawson was arguably the best point guard in the country this season and was named ACC Player of the Year. He gutted through a swollen toe in the NCAA tournament, guiding the Tar Heels to a national championship (and f——g my bracket in the process). NBADraft.net has Lawson going #15 (to Detroit, which seems odd considering Joe Dumars has hitched his wagon to Rodney Stuckey), while DraftExpress has him slated for the 11th pick (New Jersey — another odd pairing, considering Devin Harris’ stellar play this season). Both mocks have Lawson behind Ricky Rubio and Brandon Jennings amongst point guards. Jonny Flynn, Tyreke Evans, Eric Maynor and Stephen Curry are ranked ahead of Lawson in one mock or the other.
I haven’t seen much of Jennings, but I think I’d favor Lawson over the other five right now. He has everything you want in a point guard — good vision, quickness, speed, strength, shooting — except for size, and Chris Paul (and others) have proved that you don’t need to be tall to succeed in today’s NBA.
As for Ellington, I’m surprised to see that NBADraft.net has him going 11th to New Jersey. Draft Express projects him to go with the 30th pick to the Cavs. When I first heard the news that he was going pro, my assumption was that he’d be a second round pick that might sneak into the first round with a series of good workouts. He shot the ball brilliantly in the NCAA tournament and that kind of clutch performance can really boost a player’s stock, but I’d be shocked if he becomes a lottery pick. Wings that can score are a dime a dozen in the NBA, so unless a player has a quality that really makes him stand out — i.e. Gerald Henderson’s athletic ability — they usually end up being late-first round or second round picks. We’ll see.
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach discusses how the poor economy has Michigan fans rooting for their biggest intrastate rival.
Michigan State knows it will be representing more than its school when it plays North Carolina in the NCAA championship game Monday night at Ford Field in Detroit.
The Spartans will also be representing a state and region that have been battered by the country’s poor economy, climbing unemployment rates and crumbling auto industry.
“There are a lot of cities right now that have problems,” Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said. “But this is ours. This is our big city in the state. So that’s why I think it’s a little more meaningful for those of us that are from around here.”
Believe it or not, the Spartans’ surprising run to the NCAA championship game is even meaningful for the sports fans who seem to hate them most.
Even in Ann Arbor, where University of Michigan fans only seem to dislike Ohio State more than Michigan State, it seems most of the Wolverines are rooting for the Spartans to beat the Tar Heels on Monday night.
“The first four times Michigan State went to the Final Four, you usually had the crowd here rooting against the Spartans,” said Ron Dreslinski of Ann Arbor, who sat at the bar in The Blue Leprechaun on South University Avenue on Sunday. “This is really the first time you have Michigan people rooting for them. I think it’s because the game is being played in Detroit. They’re kind of the underdog, too, which makes it easier.”
The poor economy in Michigan is a big reason why Michigan fans are rooting for State, but it also helps that Michigan’s most hated rival is Ohio State, not Michigan State. Plus, outside of Duke, UConn and North Carolina are the most universally disliked basketball programs in the country. Add it all up and you have Wolverines rooting for Spartans.
What is this world coming to?
#1-seed North Carolina vs. #2-seed Michigan State
Tip-Off: 9:21 PM ET
Sagarin Ratings: North Carolina (95.44), Michigan State (90.07)
Line: UNC – 7.5
After the Tar Heels trounced the Spartans by 35 points on Dec. 3, it was clear that if North Carolina stayed healthy, they’d probably make a return trip to Ford Field. Ty Lawson’s swollen toe threw the team’s chances up in the air, but the Tar Heels stayed focused and “The Toe” — after a scare in the first half against LSU — hasn’t given Lawson any noticeable problems in the tournament. Conversely, after that December meeting, the Spartans were left wondering just how good of a team they were. In their defense, they had just returned from a three-game stint at the Old Spice Classic in Florida and were playing their fourth game in seven days — against the top-ranked team in the country no less. Still, the game was in Detroit, and they had a couple days to recover after beating Wichita State on Nov. 30, so they should have put up more of a fight.
So how do we handicap Monday night’s game? Well, the Tar Heels still have an advantage at every position, but the Spartans are playing with a lot of confidence and Ford Field is still just 92 miles from campus. So there figures to be a lot of green and white in the stands tomorrow night, especially since the UConn and Villanova fans have been looking to dump their tickets before they catch a flight out of town.
Unlike most of the teams in the country, Michigan State does have the athletes to run with North Carolina, but the Spartans are just as content to settle into the half court and run their sets. Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas has to limit or outplay Ty Lawson at the point. If Lawson wins that matchup, it’s going to be a long night for the Spartans. Michigan State can’t pack the lane like they did against UConn. Wayne Ellington and Danny Green have been hot, so the MSU defenders will have to stay home. They need to meet Tyler Hansbrough at the free throw line and keep him from establishing deep position in the post. If they can push him out of his comfort zone, the perimeter defenders won’t have to double.
The bottom line is the Spartans have to get the Tar Heels out of their game. Michigan State can throw 10 or 11 players out there, but they should only push the ball when they have an advantage. Otherwise, they should execute their half court offense and hope that those wide open 15-foot jumpers keep falling. Athleticism isn’t an issue; Michigan State can jump as high and run as fast as North Carolina can, so this game will come down to execution. In the end, I think the Tar Heels will have enough to win the game, but I think Michigan State +7.5 is attractive due to the Spartans “sticktoitiveness.” They’re just going to keep coming and coming until the final buzzer sounds.
When I filled out my bracket, I felt that North Carolina’s chances were tied to the health of Ty Lawson’s toe. And I still think so.
The ACC POY had to sit out the ACC tournament to allow the swelling to go down. And this wasn’t just any swelling; Dick Vitale said that the toe was “cartoonishly” swollen (and I think he just made that word up). This is obviously a huge concern for North Carolina.
He injured the toe on March 6 and played two days later against Duke, scoring 13 points (on 2 of 7 shooting) and dishing out nine assists. He sat out both of North Carolina’s ACC tournament games, and the Tar Heels lost to Florida State. They aren’t the same team without him.
I think that UNC can get past the first two rounds even if Ty Lawson isn’t 100%. But I’m not sure that they can get by Gonzaga without him playing at a high level. This is probably the biggest “IF” of the entire tournament. If Lawson can play at 90-95%, then the Tar Heels are probably the tournament favorite. If he can’t, then they could easily lose before the Final Four.
So how do we handle this? Well, for the purposes of a single bracket, I’m going to wager that a “cartoonishly” swollen toe isn’t going to be 90-95% healed in time for the tournament. I don’t particularly like Oklahoma or Syracuse to beat them unless Lawson is out or very limited, so I am going to put the Tar Heels through to the Final Four. If I were in two or more brackets, I’d have one where North Carolina loses in the Final Four semis, and one where they lose to Gonzaga in the Sweet Sixteen. The bottom line is that I’m betting that Lawson’s toe is not good enough for him to play at a high level for six games over the next three weeks.
If Lawson had been healthy heading into the tournament, I would have picked the Tar Heels over Connecticut for the title. I haven’t seen a guy play this well on a bum toe, so either it wasn’t ever as bad as it seemed, or Lawson has a tremendous ability to play with pain. I’m bummed about my bracket blowing up in my face (thanks, Pitt), but I feel like my original take sans health issues — UNC & UConn — was spot on, but I couldn’t in good conscience pick a team whose best player was gimpy with a bum toe. Simply stated, I guessed wrong on Lawson’s toe.
I think we’ll see a UNC-UConn final, but Michigan State and Villanova are both playing their best basketball of the season. It should be an interesting Final Four.
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