Tag: NFL odds (Page 6 of 10)

Fade Material: NFL Week 6 Predictions

October 16, 2011 / Anthony Stalter

Following my disastrous 0-4 effort in Week 4, I rallied to hit three-of-four last Sunday. The Bills, Patriots and Packers all covered while my lone loser, the Giants, had a day to forget against the Seahawks.

That runs my sterling season record to 8-12 with a chance for .500 with a perfect Sunday today. (Ha! Perfect Sunday. Like those even exist…)

San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions, 1:00PM ET
I’ve been knee-deep in Lions’ Kool-Aid for weeks now, but I think 4.5 points is too much for them to give up against a 4-1 Niners team that is playing extremely well defensively. Detroit is coming off an emotional win against Chicago on Monday night and while I don’t expect the Lions to overlook the Niners today, I think this is a field goal game either way. I like San Fran and the points more than I dislike the Lions if that makes sense.
THE PICK: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +4.5

St. Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers, 1:00PM ET
Normally double-digit dogs are safe best in the NFL. But this hasn’t been a normal year. Teams are racking up the points and we’re seeing true mismatches play out on the field. The Packers got a scare from the Falcons in the first half last week and I think that will serve them well today. The Rams may be coming off their bye but I’m pretty sure Albert Pujols and John Jay are starting at cornerback. If Rodgers doesn’t throw for over 400 yards he should be embarrassed. Embarrassed I say!
THE PICK: GREEN BAY PACKERS –14

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Bucs, 4:15PM ET
The Saints make me nervous a little because this is their third-straight road game and they have a tendency to play more conservative away from the Superdome. That said, if they get rolling in this one Tampa Bay doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace. I hate laying nearly a touchdown with New Orleans but the Saints are 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games against the Bucs while the road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these two squads. Thus, I’m not going to over think this one.
THE PICK: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS –6

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears, 8:20PM ET
I don’t trust the Bears as far as I can throw them. Probably because every time I pick them they screw me, but that’s a personal problem between them and me and I won’t get you involved. Jared Allen may have a field day against Chicago’s suspect offensive line and Jay Cutler seems to be losing faith in Mike Martz’s offense by the week. The Vikings have played better than their 1-4 record would indicate but they need to play a full four quarters if they’re going to pick up a win tonight. With the Bears coming off a short week, I think Minnesota can win with Adrian Peterson playing havoc with Chicago’s thin defensive line. (A line that won’t have Julius Peppers.)
THE PICK: MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 8-12

Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a list of Sunday’s NFL Odds.

External Sports, Free Picks, NFL

2011 NFL Week 6 Point Spreads & Odds

October 12, 2011 / Anthony Stalter

Four spreads of note:

Eagles +1 @ Redskins, 1:00PM ET
Oddsmakers have finally adjusted the spread to reflect what the Eagles are and not what everyone expected them to be. Last Sunday Philadelphia was a 3-point road favorite against the Bills, who were flat out better and had home field advantage. But this week, the Eagles are 1-point dogs against a Washington team that may not be more talented on paper, but is certainly playing better football at the moment. That said, I’m sure the public still believes that Andy Reid and Co. will eventually figure things out and I wouldn’t be surprised if this line eventually drops to a pick’em. And if it does, it’ll be interesting to see if the public once again gets burned by a Philadelphia team that is a complete mess at the moment.

Panthers +4 @ Falcons, 1:00PM ET
People are risking breaking their necks to jump off the Falcons bandwagon. Their offense is a complete mess and their offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey seems unwilling or unable to change his approach. Atlanta opened as a 5.5-point favorite for this NFC South battle, but the spread has already dropped a full point and a half. With Julio Jones’ status in doubt, the public may push the line even closer to the key number of three. Thanks in large part to Cam Newton’s passing abilities, Carolina has covered the spread in four of its first five games including four straight, which is one of the many reasons people are jumping on the Panthers this Sunday.

49ers +4.5 @ Lions, 1:00PM ET
The line opened as high as 7 for this intriguing NFC showdown between two of the bigger surprises in the NFL. But the spread has dropped like a rock with more action coming in on the 4-1 Niners. I would assume that people aren’t betting against the Lions but for San Francisco. The 49ers’ defense has been outstanding this year and the Lions are coming off a short week against a division rival, so the spread was never going to stay at a touchdown. Personally, I think the line is still too high and should be around a field goal.

Vikings +3 @ Bears, 8:20PM ET
The spread is probably set right but it’s still a little surprising that the Bears are only 3-point favorites despite having a losing record themselves. I would imagine the public will be all over Chicago, which plays significantly better at home than on the road and is taking on a Minnesota team that has struggled mightily this year. That said, if the public is all over the Bears and yet the line doesn’t move, I would be suspicious that sharp bettors are forcing bookmakers to keep the spread at 3. This will be one line that will be worth following all week.

All Week 6 point spreads:

External Sports, NFL

NFL odds nfl over under totals nfl point spreads

2011 NFL Week 5 Point Spreads & Odds

October 5, 2011 / Anthony Stalter

Five spreads of note:

Packers –5.5 @ Falcons, 8:20PM ET Sunday
The Packers return to the Georgia Dome roughly eight months after Aaron Rodgers and Co. burned it down back in January (metaphorically, of course). This line opened at 4 but is already up to 5.5 as public bettors continue to hammer the Packers, who beat the Falcons 48-21 in Atlanta during the Divisional Round playoffs last season. It’ll be interesting to see how far this spread climbs before the sharps come in and start pushing it back down. There’s no reason to believe the Falcons can hang with the Packers with the way they’ve looked in the early going, but at some point they become a value as a home dog. Will the line reach 6.5 or even 7 points?

Bears +5.5 @ Lions, 8:30PM ET, Monday
This is one of the more intriguing lines on the Week 5 schedule because it should get plenty of two-way action for sports books. The public is swarming to get a taste of that Lions Kool-Aid, but this spread is rather high for a divisional game. The Bears didn’t play well in their only road test of the season (Week 2 at New Orleans), but they’re an attractive play at 5.5. In fact, the opening line was Detroit –6 so the spread is already moving in Chicago’s direction.

Jets +9.5 @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
Even though the Jets have looked awful the last two weeks, the road team is 18-7-1 against the number in the last 26 meetings between these two teams and you know Rex Ryan’s squad will be hyped for this one. The Patriots steamrolled the Jets 45-3 in New England last season but Gang Green returned the favor with a 28-21 victory in New York one month later. This is always an intriguing matchup and it’ll be interesting to see if the public pushes the line up to the key number of 10 or if sports books will leave the spread at 9.5 to entice plenty of two-way action.

Saints –6.5 @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET
This line is intriguing because of three reasons: 1) Cam Newton, 2) it’s a divisional game and 3) the Saints tend to play things more conservatively on the road than they do at home. While they covered last week against the Jaguars, they certainly didn’t blow them out. Now they go on the road for the second straight week to play a Carolina team that has covered the spread the past three weeks. The public seems to be backing New Orleans but Newton and the Panthers could certainly keep things close, especially when you consider that the Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against Carolina.

Chiefs +1.5 @ Colts, 1:00PM ET
What do you do with this game? The Colts are 0-4 but are coming off two-straight covers despite having Curtis Painter under center. Assuming Painter holds onto the starting job (he should with how abysmal Kerry Collins looked in the early going), the Colts might be the play at –1.5. That said, the Chiefs finally got their offense going last week in Minnesota and maybe their situation has finally stabilized. With the spread highly unlikely to climb to the key number of 3, it might be best to stay far, far away from this one.

All Week 5 Point Spreads:

External Sports, NFL

Aaron Rodgers Atlanta Falcons Chicago Bears Detroit Lions Green Bay Packers New England Patriots New York Jets NFL odds nfl point spreads Rex Ryan

Fade Material: 2011 NFL Week 4 Predictions

October 2, 2011 / Anthony Stalter

Two weeks ago I was a flaming pile of horse dung. Last week, I went 3-1 as the Raiders, Seahawks and Bears/Packers under all hit. My lone loss was the Patriots, who choked away a 21-0 lead in Buffalo.

What does all this mean? I’m ready for my first 4-0 Sunday! Or, more than likely, another 0-4 day. Either way it’ll be fun…

Lions @ Cowboys, 1:00PM ET
Something’s fishy about this line. The public is all over the 3-0 Lions, especially with how poorly the Cowboys played on Monday night in a win over the Redskins. Yet Detroit goes from +1 to +2.5 the night before the game? Give me the Cowboys, who are 7-3-1 against the spread in their last 11 games. (The home team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.)
THE PICK: COWBOYS –2.5

Panthers @ Bears, 1:00PM ET
Cam Newton has been a big-time surprise so far but I think the Bears’ Tampa 2 will give him problems today in Chicago. That defense is designed to take away the big play, which has been a staple of Newton’s game early on. The Bears have always played better at home and I like the fact that the spread is below the key number of 7. The Bears are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games as a favorite, while the Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last four road games.
THE PICK: BEARS –6.5

Giants @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
Eli Manning and the Giants looked fantastic against the Eagles last Sunday in Philadelphia, so it’s only natural that he and New York will struggle against a 1-2 Cardinals team today. This is another spread that doesn’t make much sense. The Giants opened as a 3-point favorite and despite a public backing, it’s dropped to New York –1. Kevin Kolb is familiar with the Giants’ defense from his days in Philadelphia and I think that experience will play out today in an outright Arizona victory.
THE PICK: CARDINALS +1

Broncos @ Packers, 4:15PM ET
I don’t like this spread either. The Broncos are vastly inferior to the Packers and yet the line continues to drop. The spread opened at Green Bay –13.5 and is now down to 12. Who on earth is taking Denver in this matchup? Better yet, who is betting against Green Bay? The line movement doesn’t make sense and when that happens, I like going against the grain. A week after winning an emotional back-and-forth battle against the Saints, the Packers found themselves down 10-0 to the Panthers and didn’t cover. Now they’re coming off a physical road win against a divisional opponent (the Bears) and face a non-conference team that’s 1-2. I think this one stays within 10 points.
THE PICK: BRONCOS +12

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 5-7

Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a complete list of NFL Week 4 odds.

External Sports, NFL

Arizona Cardinals Cam Newton Carolina Panthers Chicago Bears Denver Broncos Eli Manning Green Bay Packers New York Giants nfl free picks NFL odds nfl point spreads

2011 NFL Week 4 Point Spreads & Odds

September 28, 2011 / Anthony Stalter

Keep Your Eye On: Bills –3 at. Bengals
Who would have thought that the Bills would be sitting at 3-0 and installed as a road favorite at this point in the season? This is an interesting game because while the Bengals are sitting at 1-2 on the season following back-to-back losses, they’re a lot better than people think they are. They’re at least competitive and rookie Andy Dalton isn’t a complete disaster (at least not yet anyway). The Bills are coming off an emotional win against a huge divisional rival and now have to travel this week. Believe it or not, this will be a nice test for Ryan Fitzpatrick and Co.

Primetime: Ravens –3.5 vs. Jets; Bucs –10 vs. Colts
Rex Ryan’s new team heads to his former home when the Jets take on the Ravens this Sunday night. This game figures to be a physical, hard-fought battle and it very likely features two teams that will be competing for a playoff berth in the AFC. Mark Sanchez broke his nose last week but says he’s fine. That’s more than what Ryan’s defense can say after it was steamrolled by Darren McFadden and the Raiders last Sunday. The Jets will have another tough matchup against Ray Rice this weekend…The schedule makers didn’t do the fans any favors by putting the Colts on national television in back-to-back weeks. Of course, they didn’t count on Peyton Manning not playing either. Curtis Painter actually held his own against the Steelers last Sunday night so maybe the Colts will put another competitive effort together. That said, the Bucs are coming off a huge win over the Falcons and will be playing with a ton of confidence.

Highest Point Spread: Packers –13 vs. Broncos
Although they looked rather pedestrian two weeks ago in Carolina, the Packers came out last Sunday and put together a solid effort from start to finish against their division rivals, the Bears. Now they return home where they’re 13-point favorites against a Broncos team that is searching for an identity under new head coach John Fox. Last week the Chargers failed to cover as 14.5-point home favorites against a 0-2 Chiefs team that had been outscored 89-6 in their two previous games. Thus, be careful about laying so much wood in an NFL game, although at least this spread is below one of the magic numbers in football (i.e. 14).

Lowest Point Spread: See below.
There are several 1-point spreads this week, none bigger then Lions-Cowboys at 1:00 p.m. on Sunday. The unbeaten Lions have won in a variety of ways already this year: on the road close, at home blowout, on the road come-from-behind. As they proved on Monday night against the Redskins, the Cowboys are a bit of a mess right now. They have several players banged up and Tony Romo is working with a smattering of receivers that aren’t familiar with Jason Garrett’s offense. This is a great opportunity for the Lions to get to 4-0…Other 1-point spreads include: Browns –1 vs. Titans, Vikings –1 at Chiefs, Rams –1 vs. Redskins, Giants –1 at. Cardinals.

External Sports, NFL

NFL odds nfl point spreads

Tag: NFL odds (Page 6 of 10)

Fade Material: NFL Week 6 Predictions

2011 NFL Week 6 Point Spreads & Odds

2011 NFL Week 5 Point Spreads & Odds

Fade Material: 2011 NFL Week 4 Predictions

2011 NFL Week 4 Point Spreads & Odds

FOLLOW US!

CATEGORIES

Pages