Tag: NCAA tourney talk (Page 6 of 9)

      Four observations about the Midwest Region

      March 17, 2009 /

      1. Louisville is a class above the rest, but they have a serious flaw.
      No major conference team comes into the tournament hotter than Louisville. They have won 10 straight games, including wins over Providence (twice), Marquette, West Virginia and Villanova. They even beat a red-hot Syracuse team to win the Big East Championship. They have the country’s second-best adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for strength of schedule), and aren’t too shabby offensively, either. But the conventional wisdom is that you need strong guard play to win a title, and the Cardinals don’t have a guard that averages more than 7.8 points per game. However, Louisville’s little guys can really defend, and that might be enough.

      2. There are some live dogs.
      I doubt there were any coaches out there hoping to get a first round matchup with Arizona this week. With future NBA’ers Chase Budinger, Nic Wise and Jordan Hill in the lineup, the Wildcats can play with anyone. But will they show up? #10-seed USC is hot as a pistol right now and the Trojans actually might be the favorite in their matchup with #7-seed Boston College. Freshman phenom DeMar DeRozan has averaged 19.8 points over the last five games, all USC wins. #13-seed Cleveland State is 29th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. What does this mean? The Vikings can really defend. That’s bad news for the Demon Deacons, who shot just 30% in their ACC tourney matchup with Maryland last week.

      3. That Kansas/WVU pick is a tough one.
      Not only is this a great matchup between two very good teams, but with the winner’s date with the vulnerable Michigan State Spartans in the next round, this one might have huge bracket implications as well. Should we pick the Mountaineers, who recently beat Pittsburgh and Villanova, and lost by five to a hot Syracuse team in the Big East semis? Or do we pick the Jayhawks, who beat Oklahoma, Missouri and Texas before laying an egg against Baylor in the Big 12 tournament? Maybe the best plan to enter two pools so we can pick both.

      4. The longshots can shoot the long ball.
      The three-point shot is the great equalizer, and the favorites in the Midwest better not fall asleep on the perimeter, or they might be in for a long day. #14-seed North Dakota State has a four-pack of players that make an average of 6.2 three-pointers a game, highlighted by leading scorer Ben Woodside’s 22.8 points per game and 43% accuracy from long range. #15-seed Robert Morris has Jeremy Chappell (2.5 3pg, 41% 3PT) and Jimmy Langhurst (1.9 3pg, 43% 3PT), who can both really light it up. So, Kansas and Michigan State — don’t say you weren’t warned…

      College Basketball, March Madness

      Four observations about the West Region

      March 17, 2009 /

      1. #11 Utah State looks like a sneaky smart pick against #6 Marquette.
      The Golden Eagles are just 1-5 after losing Dominic James, their fourth-leading scorer and best playmaker, for the rest of the season. Granted, those five losses were to UConn, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Villanova, and they only lost by an average of 7.2 points, but Marquette has to travel to Boise to face #25-ranked Utah State, who had a 19-game winning streak this season. The Golden Eagles better account for Gary Wilkinson and Jared Quayle, who make up one of the best inside-outside combinations west of the Mississippi.

      2. The committee didn’t do Mississippi State any favors.
      Congratulations on winning the SEC tournament, Bulldogs! Now we need you to make the 2000 mile-trip to Portland, Oregon by Thursday, where you’ll play the Pac-10 champions in their neighboring state. Good luck, and enjoy the Pacific Northwest!

      3. UConn shouldn’t be seriously challenged until the Elite Eight, but this is UConn we’re talking about.
      If the Huskies come out with a singular focus, no team on their side of the bracket should be able to keep up. Washington, Purdue and BYU are nice teams, but they don’t have the star power or coaching experience of the Huskies. Nor do they have anyone to matchup with Hasheem Thabeet on the inside. However, UConn is known for having tournament ADHD, so its entirely possible that one or more of these teams make the Huskies sweat late into the second half.

      4. Missouri/Memphis should be a good one.
      The Utah State/Marquette winner could easily give Mizzou a run, and Memphis might be challenged by the winner of the Cal/Maryland game, but if the Tigers face the…um…the other Tigers in the Sweet Sixteen, it’ll be a nice matchup. Memphis hasn’t played a good team since early February (when they blew out Gonzaga in Spokane) and Missouri just won the Big 12 tourney in convincing fashion. Both teams are stellar defensively, but Mizzou has an advantage on offense with DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons on the front line.

      College Basketball, March Madness

      How did Arizona get in?

      March 16, 2009 /

      ESPN’s Mark Schlabach discusses the bubble teams that got in, along with several that didn’t. Clearly, the biggest surprise is the Arizona Wildcats, who lost to Arizona State in the the Pac-10 tournament and finished 19-13 on the season.

      Certainly, the Wildcats are the most surprising team in the 65-team field. I thought Arizona’s 24-year streak of consecutive NCAA tournament appearances would end after USC won the Pac-10 tournament title and claimed the league’s NCAA auto bid.

      Arizona lost to Arizona State for the third time this season, 68-56, in the quarterfinals of the Pac-10 tournament. The Wildcats lost five of their last six games and went 2-9 in road games. But they played 16 games against RPI top-50 foes, winning six of them, and were 8-12 against the top 100.

      Obviously, the NCAA selection committee rewarded Arizona for playing a very difficult schedule. And because Arizona beat teams such as Kansas, Washington, UCLA and USC, it’s really hard to say there’s no reason it shouldn’t be in the field.

      Arizona certainly had an argument, but so did several other teams. Schlabach lists Auburn, Creighton, Penn State, Saint Mary’s and San Diego State as the five biggest snubs. Dick Vitale insists that the mid-majors can’t get the type of non-conference competition that the major conference teams can get. They might be able to schedule a big conference team, but they have to play them twice (in consecutive seasons) on the road. Jay Bilas disagrees and says the mid-majors can get the games they want.

      Who’s right? Who knows. I’d like to hear what some current mid-major coaches have to say about the subject. Certainly, Gonzaga was able to schedule a ton of challenging games, but Gonzaga is a different animal. So are Memphis and Xavier. These mid-majors have a long tradition of great basketball, so it’s probably easier to get the games that they want.

      The thing that gets me is that the Wildcats lost five of their last six games in the Pac-10, which is down this season. They finished 9-9 in conference. Sure, they have the players to compete with anyone, but they’ve underachieved all season. Why reward them?

      College Basketball, March Madness

      Championship Week Wrap-Up

      March 15, 2009 /

      There are four games left — Duke/FSU, Miss. St./Tenn, Ohio St./Purdue and the Southland final — but just one, the SEC final, has bubble implications. Despite their tournament run, the Mississippi State Bulldogs will have to beat Tennessee to get a berth, and the Volunteers are already in.

      As of this morning, Joe Lunardi says the last four teams in will be Minnesota, Maryland, Creighton and Saint Mary’s. His first four out are Penn St., Arizona, San Diego State and Auburn. His next four out are Florida, New Mexico, UNLV and Tulsa.

      It seems odd to me that he has SDSU out of tournament after the Aztecs finished the season with back-to-back wins against a bubble team (UNLV), a win over an in-the-Dance team (BYU) and a near-miss against another in-the-Dance team (Utah). Sure, SDSU doesn’t have a marquee win, but neither does Saint Mary’s. I guess Lunardi points to the head-to-head matchup (which the Aztecs lost) as the difference. But SDSU is playing better right now, so it depends on how much stock the committee puts in late season versus early season play. Also, SDSU lost to Arizona by 13 (on the road), so that can’t help either.

      It’s also odd to see Creighton back in after being on the “first four out” or “next four out” lists all week. After all, they didn’t do anything to improve their situation after losing by 24 points against Illinois State. SDSU has a tougher schedule (35 vs. 111), a better RPI (35 to 40) and Creighton doesn’t have a single win against a top 25 RPI team. (The Aztecs beat Utah back in January.) Maybe SDSU doesn’t deserve a nod over Saint Mary’s or even Arizona, but they should get in before the Blue Jays do.

      It seems to me that if Mississippi State loses, there are two spots available for five teams: Creighton, Saint Mary’s, SDSU, Arizona and Penn State. If the Bulldogs win, there will just be one spot available for those five teams.

      On the flip side, Lunardi has removed UConn from his top line and replaced the Huskies with the Memphis Tigers, who blew out Tulsa en route to their 987th straight C-USA title. I just don’t know what to make of Memphis. They lost to Syracuse at home, lost to Xavier on a neutral court and had a road loss to Georgetown. They did blow Gonzaga out by 18 in Spokane, and that’s their only really good win. I watched some of the C-USA championship game and they didn’t wow me despite beating Tulsa (#56 RPI) at the FedEx Forum.

      Michigan State and Oklahoma knocked themselves out of contention for a #1 seed with poor performances in the conference tournaments, but Duke can make a case if they can beat Florida State in the ACC tourney. Either way, I think North Carolina, Louisville, Pitt and Memphis will be the #1 seeds and Oklahoma, Duke, Michigan State and UConn will be #2 seeds, just as Lunardi has it. I don’t think there is anyone on his #3 line — Kansas, Missouri, Wake Forest and Villanova — that has a strong argument to be a #2 seed.

      College Basketball, March Madness

      Blogging Championship Week: Friday

      March 13, 2009 /

      Even though Pitt and UConn both lost in the Big East quarterfinals, they each still have a great shot at a #1 seed. The two Big 12 teams that might have had a case — Oklahoma and Kansas — lost to Oklahoma State and Bayor, respectively. If Louisville goes on to win the Big East Championship, they’re likely to get a #1 seed as well, so it’s possible that the Big East will get three #1 seeds. However, if Memphis, Michigan State, or even Duke wins their conference tourneys, they may leapfrog UConn (or Pitt) for a #1 seed. The only sure-thing when it comes to #1 seeds is that North Carolina is probably safe. (They have bigger worries with Ty Lawson sitting out the ACC tourney opener.)

      On the other end of the spectrum, Arizona’s loss to ASU has really put the Wildcats on the hot seat. Their RPI (59) isn’t impressive, though their SOS (31) is. They are 2-1 versus top 25 RPI teams, so that’s something. USC doesn’t have the great wins that Arizona has, but their RPI and SOS are both better and the Trojans’ win against Cal has them back in the conversation. The fact that the three Big 10 bubble teams — Minnesota, Michigan and Penn St. — all won, doesn’t help either team’s chances, either. Michigan looks to be in (Joe Lunardi projects the Wolverines to be a #10 seed), while Minnesota (projected #11 seed) and Penn St. (#12 seed) are still iffy, but as of right now, he says they’re both in.

      I’ll discuss the other bubble teams as the games get going today. Be sure to bookmark this post and check back for my thoughts as the scores roll in. Right now, Virginia Tech and North Carolina are doing battle in the ACC quarterfinals while Minnesota and Michigan State are squaring off in the Big 10 quarters. If the Hokies can beat the Ty Lawson-less Tar Heels, it will go a long way towards earning VT a bid. Michigan State is looking for a #1 seed while Minnesota would guarantee themselves a berth with a win over the Spartans.

      11:55 PM: I’m signing off for tonight. We’re having a birthday party for my baby boy tomorrow (he’s turning one), so I won’t be blogging. Check back on Sunday for some reaction to the Sat/Sun action.


      11:46 PM:       Illinois beat Michigan by 10. I think the Wolverines have done enough to get a bid, but only time will tell. Syracuse looks like they are going to beat the Mountaineers in overtime. Terrific mental toughness by the Orangemen. I’m interested to see how they play tomorrow against a very athletic Louisville team looking to earn a #1 seed. Again, I think that the fact that Syracuse plays zone has helped them deal with seven overtimes in two nights. They simply don’t burn as much energy on that end of the court as teams that play heavy man-to-man. Mizzou put away Oklahoma State. That Baylor/Mizzou matchup in the Big 12 final will have nationwide implications. Auburn beat Florida — the Gators are probably out and Auburn is back on the bubble.

      11:40 PM: Duke beat BC by one with some good defense down the stretch. And…believe it or not…West Virginia and Syracuse just went into overtime!

      11:20 PM: San Diego State beat BYU, so that strengthens the Aztecs’ argument that they should get a bid. Before the win, Joe Lunardi had the team as the last one in, and with a win over a NCAA team like BYU, you’d think they’d be safe. Arizona State upset Washington in a chippy one. It’s clear these two teams don’t like each other, especially the two point guards. Duke is up three with four minutes to go (ESPN2), Syracuse leads WVU by five with three minutes to play (ESPN), and Missouri is up four with 11 minutes to go (ESPN360).

      10:57 PM: I’m perplexed by this Hyundai Assurance Plus program, where they cover your car payment if you lose your job. I would assume that this deal would appeal to people that are worried about losing their job, but my advice would be that if you’re in that situation, it’s not a good time to buy a new car. Buy a used car or keep driving whatever you’re currently driving.

      10:48 PM: So much for Dayton helping the bubble teams out by winning the A-10 tourney. Duquesne is up 13 with 2:35 to play, so it’s not looking good. More bad news for teams on the bubble. Some great games going on right now…Duke/BC, Mizzou/OSU, WVU/Syracuse, ASU/Washington and Florida/Auburn are all within four points.

      10:21 PM: He’s a heckuva shooter, but Eric Devendorf is really annoying. Stop with all the antics and act like you’ve made a play before. Maybe it’s the tats that bother me…

      BC goes into halftime on a 20-5 run and leads Duke by seven. I don’t know what to think of this Duke team. I don’t see them getting out of the Sweet Sixteen, especially if they meet an athletic, well-coached team.

      10:16 PM: Finally some good news for the other bubble teams. Purdue is blowing out Penn State. The Nittany Lions probably needed to keep things closer to get a bid, so they will be on the hot seat if they continue to get blown out.

      10:03 PM: Good time for hoops fans — we have Duke/BC, ASU/Washington, Syracuse/West Virginia, Florida/Auburn and Oklahoma St./Mizzou. The winner of that Florida/Auburn game will still be alive for a bid, the loser will probably be on the outside looking in.

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