LeBron leads Cavs past Celtics Posted by John Paulsen (01/09/2009 @ 11:34 pm) In a game that was closer than the final score, the Cavaliers went on a 9-2 run in the middle of the fourth quarter to coast to an impressive 98-83 victory over the struggling Celtics. Cleveland benefited from a couple of favorable calls to start that run. First, there was a phantom offensive foul on Leon Powe, and then there was the officials’ decision not to reset the shot clock after LeBron stole the ball and lost it out of bounds (which ultimately resulted in a shot clock violation for the Celtics). Even though the Cavs outplayed the Celtics for much of the game, Boston was hanging around and it was those two defensive stops that ignited the run that ultimately put the game out of reach.
LeBron was outstanding — 38 points, seven rebounds, six assists, four steals and three blocks. Truly, it was an MVP performance for all of the doubters out there. In the past, I’ve been critical of his defense, but it looks as if his stint with Team USA has done wonders for his intensity on that end of the court. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that he’s extremely motivated when he faces Paul Pierce. Pierce struggled for much of the night and that had everything to do with LeBron’s defense. A few random thoughts about the game… – Where was the crowd? Given a game of this magnitude, I was expecting to tune in to see a playoff atmosphere, but the Cleveland fans sat on their hands for much of the game. They didn’t really get loud until that aforementioned run in the middle of the fourth quarter. It looked like a typical NBA crowd and that’s pretty sad given the relative importance of this game. – I don’t like the call to wear the throwback uniforms in a game like this — it’s just too important of a game to throw crazy unis on your players. Basketball players are creatures of habit and it messes with their psyche to be wearing road throwbacks in a game of this magnitude. Ultimately, it didn’t matter, but it might have. – Did anyone else see KG intentionally run into LeBron after the refs refused to reset the shot clock? He walked right past LeBron and hit him with a shoulder. He looked like a high school bully trying to pick a fight. LeBron reacted by turning and glancing at Garnett, but kept his cool. – The Celtics have to do something about their bench. They lost James Posey and P.J. Brown and the guys they currently have aren’t ready to step in and play crunch time minutes like those guys did in the playoffs last season. This will be one of the more interesting storylines between now and the trade deadline and then throughout the playoffs. If the Celtics don’t repeat or at least make the Finals, then Danny Ainge is going to be second-guessed for electing not to re-sign Posey. He is likely to make a move or two to bolster the bench, but as I wrote earlier this week, they don’t have any expendable pieces to offer in trade. – I brought this up last season, but I don’t like the way Doc Rivers uses Pierce, Garnett and Ray Allen. When you have three players of that caliber, there’s no reason to have more than one of them out of the game at any given time. Rivers elects to bench Pierce and KG at the same time and have Ray Ray out there with the reserves, but he’s not capable of carrying that unit night in and night out, especially now that they’re without Posey and Brown. I would have two of the Big Three on the court at all times. But that’s me. – Mo Williams looks like a great fit in Cleveland. He had 13 points on 5-9 shooting, and was the Cavs’ main playmaker when LeBron went to the bench. I was sad to see the Bucks trade him away, but apparently he didn’t get along with Michael Redd — who knows, maybe Milwaukee should have jettisoned Redd instead. Williams has always struggled with his defense, but now that LeBron is doing most of the playmaking on offense, Mo can focus more on defending his guy and getting after loose balls. He had a couple of nice hustle plays tonight. – Wally Szczerbiak is washed up. I don’t know if Mike Brown was trying to showcase him tonight for a trade, but it’s mind-boggling to me that this guy is getting minutes over Daniel Gibson and Sasha Pavlovic. He can’t really defend and if his shot isn’t falling (and it wasn’t tonight), he’s basically useless. It will be interesting to see if the Cavs decide to trade him for some more help or if they let his contract expire at the end of the season and take the salary cap relief. – J.J. Hickson looks like a player. He’s raw, but he’s athletic and has some moves down low. Posted in: Fantasy Basketball, NBA, NBA Finals Tags: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, James Posey, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Michael Redd, Mike Brown, Mo Williams, P.J. Brown, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Wally Szczerbiak
Luke Ridnour finding a home in Milwaukee Posted by John Paulsen (12/31/2008 @ 1:18 pm) By far the most surprising score from Tuesday’s NBA action is the Bucks 100-98 win over the Spurs in San Antonio. Michael Redd led the Bucks with 25 points and 10 boards, while Andrew Bogut held down the middle with 20 points, 14 rebounds, four assists and three blocked shots. More importantly, he limited Tim Duncan to 7 of 20 shooting from the field, which helped the Bucks spring the upset.
But point guard Luke Ridnour might have been the difference in the game. He posted 21 points (on 9 of 15 shooting), six assists, five rebounds, two blocked shots and a steal, and if he didn’t outplay Tony Parker (19 points, 10 assists), then he sure negated him. Ridnour joined the Bucks as part of the three-team trade that sent Mo Williams to the Cavs in the offseason. He’s 27, and prior to joining the Bucks, he had spent his entire career in Seattle. At the beginning of the season, new head coach Scott Skiles immediately inserted him into the starting lineup and he has responded with solid play, especially recently. Take a look at Ridnour’s numbers from November and December: Nov: 10.6 ppg, 4.9 apg, 38.8% FG%, 0.93 spg Dec: 11.7 ppg, 6.2 apg, 47.7% FG%, 2.08 spg That jump in field goal percentage is key. He cut back on the number of three pointers he’s taking (from 2.9 to 1.7) and is taking more open mid-range jumpers created off of pick-and-rolls with Bogut. For much of November, I thought that Ramon Sessions (who is having a great year in his own right) would soon take over as the starter, but with Ridnour’s December play, I’m not so sure. Skiles is a former point guard, and he has two good, underrated options at the position. The key for Ridnour is to keep up that FG%; everyone knows that he can pass the ball. Sessions is a free agent after the season, and on a per-minute basis he’s still way ahead of Ridnour in terms of production (PER: 16.48 vs. 13.75). Ridnour has another year on his contract. It will be interesting to see how the team handles these two players. I wouldn’t be surprised if Skiles continues to play Ridnour heavy minutes so that he can keep a lid on Sessions’ league-wide profile until the Bucks can lock him up in a long-term deal at a discount. If that’s the case, he has to be careful not to alienate Sessions so much that a rift is created between the player and the head coach. It’s a bad, bad thing when a point guard and his coach aren’t on the same page. Posted in: Fantasy Basketball, NBA Tags: Andrew Bogut, Luke Ridnour, Michael Redd, Milwaukee Bucks, Mo Williams, NBA free agency, Ramon Sessions, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker
Four NBA trades that need to happen Posted by John Paulsen (12/18/2008 @ 2:30 pm) About this time every season, the contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pretenders and teams that are struggling to stay in the playoff hunt are starting to look forward to next year. With that in mind, here are four trades that I’d love to see pop up amongst the NBA headlines in the coming weeks. I’ve done my best to make these trades equitable and realistic, but if you’re a fan of one of these teams, or just a fan of the NBA in general, I’d love to hear your thoughts. 1. Shawn Marion for Lamar Odom and Sun Yue Yes, I know that the Lakers have the best record in the West, but let’s get real – they’re starting Luke Walton at small forward. No matter what the Laker faithful believes, they have a hole in their lineup. Lamar Odom can’t play alongside Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol because he can’t shoot. He proved in the Finals against the Celtics that he wasn’t tough enough to battle Kevin Garnett. Trevor Ariza is a slightly better option, but after a quick start, he’s shooting 29% from long range. Vladimir Radmanvoic? Sasha Vujacic? Come on.
Is Marion the perfect fit? Not really. His three-point accuracy (34%) could be better, but he’s still more of a threat than Odom (32%), especially from the corners. Are there any other holes in his game? He thrived in the Suns’ up-tempo system and the Lakers boast the third-fastest pace in the league. He’s a much better defender than Odom and is far more versatile on that end of the court. Marion could even give Kobe a break defensively by covering the other team’s best perimeter player. That would keep Kobe’s legs fresh for crunch time. (Sun Yue is a throw-in to make the numbers work.) What’s the upside for the Heat? Well, they can still make a run at Carlos Boozer if they choose, and if that doesn’t pan out, they can re-sign Odom, a versatile forward that can play alongside Dwyane Wade and Michael Beasley. He’s a better passer than Marion (so he can better set up Wade and Beasley) and is every bit the rebounder. Odom had one of his best years when he was in Miami and would be a solid backup plan if Operation Boozer doesn’t succeed. It doesn’t look like the Marion experiment is working, so they should acquire a player they at least might want to re-sign next summer. See this deal in the ESPN Trade Machine. 2. Michael Redd for Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and J.J. Hickson Redd still has two more seasons on his deal at the tune of $35 million, but that shouldn’t matter to the Cavs. Right now, it’s all about surrounding LeBron with enough talent to get to the Finals. Redd’s numbers have taken a dip this season, but that probably has more to do with fewer attempts (-2.1) than anything else. His shooting percentage is down (-2.3%), but he’s a career 45% shooter, so there’s no reason to believe that he wouldn’t get back to that level of accuracy playing alongside LeBron and Mo Williams.
Barring a mid-season surge by the Bucks, they are once again looking at finishing in the lottery. They’ve struggled with injuries and may yet make a push, but right now it looks like another year of rebuilding. This trade would get the team out from under Redd’s monster contract (because Wally’s deal is expiring) while also giving the team a starter-quality shooting guard (West) and a nice power forward prospect (Hickson) who isn’t getting any minutes in Cleveland. With Redd’s contract jettisoned, the Bucks would have a significant amount of cap space (~ $14 million) to throw at a guy like Joe Johnson. See this deal in the ESPN Trade Machine. 3. Dirk Nowitzki for Carlos Boozer, Ronnie Price and Jarron Collins Right now, Carlos is saying all the right things, but if he has the option of a max contract in Utah and a max contract in Miami (where he lives in the offseason), which do you think he’ll choose? Sure, he and Deron Williams make a nice combo, but with Dwyane Wade and Michael Beasley, Miami is just as attractive. So if you’re the Jazz and you see the writing on the wall, don’t you want to get something in return? Nowitzki would replace Boozer’s scoring and rebounding and keep Utah’s winning ways going. Dirk really needs a change of scenery (to put the memory of the 2006 Finals behind him) and the Jazz would be one step closer to putting together an all-international roster.
For Dallas, it’s about changing things up. They’d get younger – Boozer is 27 while Dirk is 30 – and he’d give the team someone to build around for the next few years. This move would make a lot more sense for the Mavs if they hadn’t traded away Devin Harris (because re-signing with Dallas would make a lot more sense for Boozer), but if they could get a commitment from Boozer that he would re-sign, the deal makes sense. (Of course, as Cleveland fans know, trusting Boozer’s word is awfully dicey.) See this deal in the ESPN Trade Machine. 4. Mike Miller for Bruce Bowen, Roger Mason and a first round draft pick At 28, Mike Miller is one of the best shooters in the league and is languishing on a team that is going nowhere. Spurs fans may not want to give up Mason, but Miller is the better shooter, passer and rebounder. Plus, he’s a natural small forward, which would make him a better fit alongside Manu Ginobili on the wing. He would be deadly spacing the court for Tim Duncan’s post play and Tony Parker’s penetration.
What’s the upside for the T-Wolves? Well, they’d get a solid player in Mason and another first round pick, which would give them five for next summer’s draft. They should be able to turn five picks into two (or three) star- or starter-quality players. See this deal in the ESPN Trade Machine. Four emerging NBA storylines Posted by John Paulsen (11/06/2008 @ 4:53 pm) It’s early in the NBA season, but these four things have jumped out at me during the first week of action. 1. The Lakers are dominating, but Lamar Odom isn’t thriving off the bench. The Los Angeles Lakers are 4-0 and have won those four games by an average of 20.8 points. Granted, they’ve already played the Clippers twice, but the Nuggets gave them a test in Denver. The Lakers are doing it with defense, holding opponents to just 39.3% shooting and 85.0 points per game. (The Lakers are second in the league in both categories.) The team is off to a quick start despite so-so play from Andrew Bynum (8.3 points and 9.3 rebounds) and Lamar Odom (10.0 points and 6.5 rebounds), who isn’t exactly tearing it up off the bench. His numbers are boosted by a pretty nice 15-point, nine-rebound effort against the Clippers last night. Those are kind of numbers that Odom should be posting on a regular basis. The Lakers are getting nice play from Trevor Ariza, who has produced 9.8 points and 4.3 rebounds in just 20.5 minutes of play. If he continues his deft shooting from long range (71%), it won’t be long before he cracks the starting lineup. One of the underlying strategies heading into the season was to cut back on Kobe’s minutes, and thus far the plan has worked. He averaged 38.9 last season and is only playing 33.3 this season. His minutes are likely to rise as the Lakers play in more close games, but right now Phil Jackson has to be feeling pretty good about how his team has started. 2. The Bucks are finally playing some defense. Last season, Milwaukee was last in the league in defensive field goal percentage (48.0%), but through five games, they’re holding opponents to 44.2% shooting, which is #14 in the league. New head coach Scott Skiles demands a lot from his players on that end of the court and so far the Bucks are responding with increased effort. The addition of Richard Jefferson certainly helps defensively, but he’s also getting it done on the other end of the court. RJ is averaging 18.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game, even though he’s only shooting 41% from the field. Without Michael Redd in the lineup, Jefferson had a great 32-point, nine-assist effort in a 112-104 overtime win against the Wizards Wednesday night. The Bucks are also getting great play from a couple of unexpected sources. Second-year point guard Ramon Sessions turned a few heads last year when he averaged 12.9 points and 12.4 assists (including a franchise record 24 dimes against the Bulls) over the last eight games of the season. The Mo Williams trade that brought Luke Ridnour to team looked more like a salary dump than a personnel move, but maybe the Bucks decided they had their point guard of the future in Sessions, who is averaging 17.3 points and 8.3 assists on the year. Second round pick Luc Mbah a Moute has outplayed first round pick Joe Alexander thus far. Skiles likes Mbah a Moute’s great defense and toughness, which he learned playing in Ben Howland’s system at UCLA for three years. He’s playing 25.2 minutes and is averaging 8.6 points and 5.0 rebounds per game. The Bucks are 3-2, but have a rough eight-game stretch ahead of them that features the Celtics (twice), Suns, Cavs, Spurs, Nuggets and Jazz. If they can come through that gauntlet close to .500, we’ll know that the Bucks’ improvement is for real. 3. The Spurs were thisclose to starting 0-4. If not for last night’s 55-point, 10-assist, seven-rebound effort by Tony Parker that helped the Spurs survive a double-overtime scare against the Timberwolves, San Antonio would be looking at an 0-4 start. They lost to the Suns at home by five and to the Blazers by one in Portland, but it was the 98-81 loss to the Mavs at home that was really surprising. The Spurs’ problem is two-fold. Collectively, they’re getting older and they miss Manu Ginobili. Parker (33.3 points, 7.3 assists) and Tim Duncan (27.0 points, 11.8 rebounds) are doing all they can to keep the Spurs in games, but they aren’t getting much help from their supporting cast, specifically Michael Finley (33% FG%) and Kurt Thomas (14% FG%). The Spurs are getting good play from fifth-year guard Roger Mason, who is averaging 15.8 points per game on 60.5% shooting. He’s been extremely hot from downtown, knocking down 64% of this three-point shots. Right now, it’s a three-man show and that’s it; no other Spur is averaging more than 7.5 points per game. The schedule gets a little easier over the next two weeks, with winnable games against the Heat, Knicks, Bucks, Kings and Clippers. San Antonio should be back above .500 before too long. In my 2008 NBA Preview, I had the Hawks ranked #20 to start the season. After a 3-0 start, they should definitely be in the top half, maybe even in the top ten. I thought the loss of Josh Childress and the steady decline of Mike Bibby would outweigh whatever improvements this young team could make, but they have proven me wrong. The Hawks’ three wins are impressive. They beat Orlando by 14 points on the road, beat Philly at home by seven and then beat the Hornets in New Orleans by eight. Joe Johnson has led the team in scoring in all three games, and is averaging 28.0 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists on the year. Even more impressive, the Hawks have won despite poor shooting from Josh Smith (42%), Mike Bibby (34%) and Marvin Williams (39%). If Johnson is able to keep up this level of play, the Hawks shouldn’t have a problem making the playoffs for the second consecutive year. Long-term, I like the direction this franchise is headed, but they still need to find their point guard of the future. Mike Bibby is on the decline and Acie Law hasn’t done much in his young career to indicate that he’s the guy they should lean on. The Hawks will have plenty of cap space over the next couple of seasons, so they should be planning to find a point guard that can complement Johnson and forward/center Al Horford. Posted in: Fantasy Basketball, NBA Tags: Acie Law, Al Horford, Andrew Bynum, Atlanta Hawks, Ben Howland, Joe Alexander, Joe Johnson, Josh Childress, Josh Smith, Kobe Bryant, Kurt Thomas, Lamar Odom, Los Angeles Lakers, Luc Mbah a Moute, Luke Ridnour, Manu Ginobili, Marvin Williams, Michael Finley, Michael Redd, Mike Bibby, Milwaukee Bucks, Mo Williams, Phil Jackson, Ramon Sessions, Richard Jefferson, Roger Mason, San Antonio Spurs, Scott Skiles, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Trevor Ariza, UCLA
2008 NBA Preview: #18 Milwaukee Bucks Posted by John Paulsen (10/20/2008 @ 2:30 pm) Offseason Movement: New GM John Hammond was busy this summer wheeling and dealing. Two starters from last season are gone. The Bucks traded Mo Williams to Cleveland in a three-way deal that brought Luke Ridnour from Seattle/OKC. Williams was more of a scorer, while Ridnour is definitely a pass-first point guard. The team also traded Yi Jianlian (and Bobby Simmons) to the Nets for Richard Jefferson. This move implies that the team is in “win now” mode, which makes sense given the roster. Keep Your Eye On: Charlie Villanueva Everyone thought that Charlie V would be one of the first Bucks to go once Hammond took over, but the team dealt Yi instead and they’re expecting V to take over at power forward. In the 31 games he started last season, he averaged 15/8, so if he can play enough defense to make new coach Scott Skiles happy, he could be in for a big year. The Bucks sure need him to break out, and there’s a good bet that he will, especially if he takes the ball to the hole more. The Big Question: Can Scott Skiles whip this team into shape? For the last several years, the Bucks have lacked a defensive mindset and toughness. There’s definitely enough talent to compete; a starting five of Ridnour, Michael Redd, Jefferson, Villanueva and Bogut makes for a good young core of skilled offensive players. If Skiles can get them to increase their effort on defense, the team should make a jump in the standings. It’s no sure thing that all the players will buy in; it’s just as likely that the Bucks will be looking at a losing record two months in and Skiles will have a revolt on his hands. Outlook: Encouraging. The addition of Jefferson is a huge upgrade at small forward, which has been a weak spot for the last two seasons. The loss of Yi is a loss of potential only, as Villanueva should be able to produce better numbers from that position. Assuming good play from Redd and continued growth from Bogut, the Bucks are one of the darkhorses in the East. If Ridnour helps the team meld into a single cohesive unit offensively and Skiles can get them into the middle of the pack defensively, then the Bucks will be in business. Posted in: Fantasy Basketball, NBA Tags: 2008 NBA Preview, 2008 NBA Team Previews, Andrew Bogut, Bobby Simmons, Charlie Villanueva, John Hammond, Luke Ridnour, Michael Redd, Milwaukee Bucks, Richard Jefferson, Scott Skiles, Yi Jianlian
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