Tag: March Madness (Page 6 of 24)

I outlined all of my picks in my annual “Need help with your March Madness bracket?” column, but I know that there are more than a few of you out there in pools that emphasize picking upsets by rewarding points based on seed, and that can change things rather significantly.

In addition to the upsets I’ve already outlined — Marquette, Richmond, Old Dominion, Utah St. and Michigan St. — here are a few more to consider:

1. In addition to Old Dominion, pick #9-seeds Tennessee and Illinois. All of the 8/9 games are toss-ups, so we might as well go for that extra point. The only #8-seed that I like a lot is George Mason, so stick with the Patriots.

2. Take all four #12-seeds. I already have Richmond and Utah St. advancing, but there’s a good chance that West Virginia (vs. Clemson?) and Arizona (vs. Memphis) fall as well. ESPN’s Giant Killers blog thinks Memphis has a good shot to upset Arizona, and the Mountaineers are only a 2.4-point Sagarin favorite over Clemson, so it’s not worth taking the favorite.

3. Take Belmont over Wisconsin. I really wanted to make this pick in my official bracket, but the Badgers’ advantage is just outside the 3+ margin needed for confident (~80%) pick. The Bruins are #18 in Pomeroy Pythagorean rating and #27 in Sagarin rating so they are much better than their seed would indicate.

4. In addition to the Spartans, take #10-seeds Florida St. and Penn St. The only #7-seed I really like to advance is Washington, which is this year’s metrics darling. The Seminoles and Nittany Lions are in pick’em games, so we might as well go with the underdogs.

5. In addition to Marquette, take #11-seeds Gonzaga and Missouri. Again, these two teams are slight underdogs, but represent a 5-point bonus, so it’s better to take the bigger seed.

Complete list of first round upsets: Clemson (assuming they beat UAB), Marquette, Tennessee, Memphis, Missouri, Penn St., Illinois, Richmond, Florida St., Old Dominion, Utah St., Belmont, Gonzaga, Michigan St.

In the second round, I’d take Washington over UNC, Georgetown over Purdue, Belmont over Utah St., Gonzaga over BYU and Michigan St. over Florida.

In the Sweet Sixteen, I’d pick Washington over Syracuse, Texas over Duke, Georgetown over Notre Dame and Michigan St. over Gonzaga. Those would be the final upsets that I’d pick in this format. I still think we have a great chance to see three or four #1 seeds in the tournament…but anything can happen. (See how I covered myself there?)

When filling out your bracket, it’s not a bad idea to start with your Final Four picks and work backwards. I looked at the last seven Final Fours to get an idea of the profile of a Final Four team and discovered the following:

25 out of 28 FF teams (89%) finished the tournament with adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies (i.e. points per possession adjusted for strength of schedule) in the Top 30 (LSU ’06, George Mason ’06, Butler ’10). Teams currently in the Top 30 in both categories: Ohio St., Duke, Kansas, Texas, Pitt, SDSU, Kentucky, Purdue and Syracuse. Teams that could play their way into a Top 30 ranking by the end of the tournament: Louisville, BYU, North Carolina, UConn, Belmont, Illinois, West Virginia.

24 of 28 FF teams (86%) finished the tournament with a Pythagorean win ranking in the Top 10 (#23 George Mason ’06, #14 Villanova ’09, #12 Butler ’10, #23 Michigan State ’10). Teams currently in the Top 10: Ohio St., Duke, Kansas, Texas, Pittsburgh, SDSU, Kentucky, Purdue, Wisconsin and Notre Dame. Teams that could play their way into the Top 10: Syracuse, Louisville, BYU, North Carolina, Washington, Utah St., UConn, Belmont and Florida.

23 of 28 FF teams (82%) were elite (in Top 7) in either offensive or defensive efficiency (George Mason ’06, Michigan State ’09, Villanova ’09, West Virginia ’10, Michigan State ’10). Teams currently in the Top 7 in either category: Ohio St., Duke, Kansas, Texas, Pitt, SDSU, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Louisville, North Carolina and Utah St. Teams that could play their way into the Top 7: BYU, Washington, Clemson and Purdue.

Teams currently on all three lists: Ohio St., Duke, Kansas, Texas, Pitt, SDSU and Kentucky.

Teams that could play themselves onto all three lists: Purdue, BYU, Louisville and North Carolina.

When picking your Final Four teams, it would be wise to stick to these 11 teams. Moreover, five of the last seven overall winners were Top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, while the other two were #1 in offensive efficiency. Only Ohio St. and Duke currently qualify for “overall winner status.” Kansas is #4 in offensive efficiency and #12 in defensive efficiency, so they could potentially play their way into Top 5 status in both categories (or the #1 overall offensive efficiency). Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Kentucky round out the Top 7 in offensive efficiency. In other words, you shouldn’t pick an overall winner that isn’t listed here.

Want to see who I picked?

If you want to see my record as a March Madness prognosticator along with an outline of my methodology, click here. If you just want to see my picks, read on.

I wouldn’t normally pick the play-in games, but this season there are a pair of #12 seeds and a pair of #11 seeds that are playing on Tuesday and Wednesday for the right to advance to the first round on Thursday and Friday.

All four games are fairly easy to pick since they all of spreads of 3+ in Sagarin rating. My four winners are NC-Asheville, Clemson, UT-San Antonio and USC.

Most of the picks are made by taking the Sagarin/Pomeroy favorite. Here are the first round games that are tighter statistically along with the reasoning for my picks.

George Mason/Villanova
Nova is a 1.8-point Sagarin favorite, but George Mason is a very slight Pomeroy favorite. Basically, it’s a statistical toss-up. I’m going with George Mason because Villanova has lost five straight games and 10 of their last 15. Wow. The Giant Killers blog likes the Patriots as well, even though this doesn’t technically qualify as a GK game.

Michigan/Tennessee
These are two pretty similar teams statistically. Michigan is a 1.1-point Sagarin favorite and Pomeroy says they have a 57% chance of winning this game. I do wonder if Tennessee’s season had gone differently had Bruce Pearl not been suspended. This is a toss-up, so I’ll go with the Wolverines, who have played a little better of late (9-4 in last 13 games).

Continue reading »

Want to skip my resume and methodology and see my picks? Click here.

Hundreds of writers will write hundreds of columns/articles/posts about the 2011 NCAA Tournament, so you may be wondering, why should I listen to this clown?

In 2007, I picked the winner (Florida) along with one other Final Four team (#2 seed Georgetown). In 2008, I picked the winner (Kansas) along with two other Final Four teams (#1-seed UCLA and #1-seed North Carolina). That was enough to line my pocket with a little cash in both years.

2009 was another story. Even though I am on record saying that if Ty Lawson’s toe were 90-95% healthy that North Carolina would have been my pick, I ultimately didn’t have enough confidence in Lawson’s health — special thanks Dick Vitale for calling it “cartoonishly” swollen, stoking my fears — to pick the Tar Heels last season. I picked only one Final Four team (#1-seed UConn) and my winner (Pitt) lost in the Elite Eight to Villanova.

In 2010, I got off to a rough start, but picked both Duke and West Virginia in the Final Four and would have won my pool had the Mountaineers managed to upend the Blue Devils. I’d also like to note that I ignored evidence that Duke (along with Kansas) was one of the two clear favorites to win the title last season. I would have won my pool had a I taken the Blue Devils over the Mountaineers. Sigh.

Here’s my method for March Madness: First, I pull in Jeff Sagarin’s regular season rankings. I also consider Ken Pomeroy’s offensive and defensive efficiency stats, along with his Pythagorean win percentage.

Over the last four years, teams with a 2+ point advantage in Sagarin’s “predictor” rating have won 156 of 198 games (78.7%). Over the last two years, if a team had at least a 65% expected win rate according to Pomeroy’s Pythagorean calculation, they won 61 of 76 games (80.2%). So I won’t stray too far from these two indicators if they both agree that a certain team is going to win.

But not every game is so clear cut. Over the last four years, if there were 198 games that had a Sagarin favorite of at least three points, that means that there were 51 games that did not. My research has found that a Sagarin advantage of 0-2 points yields a 27-24 record and an advantage, so if the Sagarin advantage is less than two points, the game is basically a toss up.

For these games, I’ll look at other factors, like location of the game, offensive and defensive efficiencies, matchups, injuries, current play, and how each team fits the Giant Killers profile. In short, if a game is a toss up, it pays to go with the underdog because most people are going to go with the favorite.

I guess I should mention that I played for Bo Ryan (current coach of the Wisconsin Badgers) at UW-Platteville and started on the 1995 team that went undefeated and won the NCAA Division III National Championship. So I know a little bit about basketball.

Typically, my brackets struggle in the early rounds and then come on at the end. I’m in a regular pool that has 30-35 people in it every year. I’ve placed in the money twice in four years and am always still alive heading into the Final Four. That’s all you can ask for, right?

Click here for my picks.