Tag: March Madness (Page 14 of 24)

      NCAA Championship Game Preview

      April 5, 2009 /

      #1-seed North Carolina vs. #2-seed Michigan State
      Tip-Off: 9:21 PM ET
      Sagarin Ratings: North Carolina (95.44), Michigan State (90.07)
      Line: UNC – 7.5
      After the Tar Heels trounced the Spartans by 35 points on Dec. 3, it was clear that if North Carolina stayed healthy, they’d probably make a return trip to Ford Field. Ty Lawson’s swollen toe threw the team’s chances up in the air, but the Tar Heels stayed focused and “The Toe” — after a scare in the first half against LSU — hasn’t given Lawson any noticeable problems in the tournament. Conversely, after that December meeting, the Spartans were left wondering just how good of a team they were. In their defense, they had just returned from a three-game stint at the Old Spice Classic in Florida and were playing their fourth game in seven days — against the top-ranked team in the country no less. Still, the game was in Detroit, and they had a couple days to recover after beating Wichita State on Nov. 30, so they should have put up more of a fight.

      So how do we handicap Monday night’s game? Well, the Tar Heels still have an advantage at every position, but the Spartans are playing with a lot of confidence and Ford Field is still just 92 miles from campus. So there figures to be a lot of green and white in the stands tomorrow night, especially since the UConn and Villanova fans have been looking to dump their tickets before they catch a flight out of town.

      Unlike most of the teams in the country, Michigan State does have the athletes to run with North Carolina, but the Spartans are just as content to settle into the half court and run their sets. Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas has to limit or outplay Ty Lawson at the point. If Lawson wins that matchup, it’s going to be a long night for the Spartans. Michigan State can’t pack the lane like they did against UConn. Wayne Ellington and Danny Green have been hot, so the MSU defenders will have to stay home. They need to meet Tyler Hansbrough at the free throw line and keep him from establishing deep position in the post. If they can push him out of his comfort zone, the perimeter defenders won’t have to double.

      The bottom line is the Spartans have to get the Tar Heels out of their game. Michigan State can throw 10 or 11 players out there, but they should only push the ball when they have an advantage. Otherwise, they should execute their half court offense and hope that those wide open 15-foot jumpers keep falling. Athleticism isn’t an issue; Michigan State can jump as high and run as fast as North Carolina can, so this game will come down to execution. In the end, I think the Tar Heels will have enough to win the game, but I think Michigan State +7.5 is attractive due to the Spartans “sticktoitiveness.” They’re just going to keep coming and coming until the final buzzer sounds.

      College Basketball, March Madness

      Michigan State, North Carolina advance to Monday’s final

      April 4, 2009 /

      One of the more compelling storylines leading up to Saturday’s games was what kind of home court advantage Michigan State would enjoy playing just 92 miles from its campus in East Lansing. It turns out they would have a distinct advantage, and as Villanova fans try to sell off their seats this evening, it should be even bigger on Monday night.

      Despite Clark Kellogg’s marveling at the sight lines in the dome, I think all March Madness games should be played in arenas. Domes are just too big for basketball, and with the advent of high definition television, there is little reason to go to a Final Four just to sit in the nosebleed seats. Who cares if you were “there”? Wouldn’t you rather watch the game?

      Anyway, Tom Izzo came up with a great game plan and his Spartans executed it to perfection, beating UConn, 82-73. First, they had to harass A.J. Price. Anytime Price came off the screen, the help was there, forcing the guard to be a passer, which is not his forte. He went 5 of 20 on the night with only one assist. Next, they collapsed into the lane and dared the other Huskies to shoot the ball from the perimeter. UConn’s main advantage was on the front line, and the Spartans negated that by essentially camping four defenders in the lane. Anytime Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien or Stanley Robinson caught the ball, there were several hands trying to swipe it away. Lastly, Izzo knew his Spartans would have to get on the glass. UConn was clearly unprepared for the type of tenacity that Michigan State brings to rebounding, and it showed in the box score. Sure, Michigan State only had one more offensive board than UConn, but given the size of the Husky front line, the Spartans had no business getting that many.

      In the late game, North Carolina simply out-shot and out-defended Villanova en route to an 83-69 victory. The Tar Heels shot 11 of 22 (50%) from long range while the Wildcats shot a pathetic 5 of 27 (19%). Still, Villanova whittled the lead down to five with 18:15 to go in the second half, but the Tar Heels went on a 9-0 run over the next three and a half minutes to push the lead back out to 14. It wasn’t a pretty game, but North Carolina was in control the entire time.

      Michigan State and North Carolina met earlier this season at Ford Field and the Tar Heels won by 35 points. This is a different Spartan team, but it will be interesting to see how each squad uses the earlier game for motivation. Does Michigan State think they can beat UNC after getting trounced? (Yes.) Will the Tar Heels get complacent because they already blew the Spartans out once this season? (Doubtful, but you never know.) It should be a partisan crowd and a compelling game.

      Check back tomorrow for a complete preview of Monday’s final.

      College Basketball, March Madness

      An open letter to the NCAA

      April 4, 2009 /

      Dear NCAA Men’s Tournament Selection Committee,

      This weekend, the Final Four will be played at Ford Field in Detroit, and I want to thank you for another lackluster tournament. The aristocrats of college basketball trampled their opponents en route to the Motor City. Your selection process favors the haves (30 of the 34 at-large bids went to schools from the six largest conferences) and discriminates against the have-nots (four at-large bids to mid-major conferences).

      An alarming trend has shown that the number of at-large mid-major schools has dwindled from the high water mark of 12 in 2004 to a low of four schools (Xavier, Dayton, Butler and Brigham Young) playing in this year’s tournament. You’re slowly taking away the madness of March. Please don’t BCS the most anticipated playoff format in all sport.

      Your chairman, Mike Slive, proclaimed, “It’s all about who you play, where you play, and how you do,” when describing the criteria for selecting the 65-team field. He added that the committee looks at schools individually and not at their conference affiliation. I beg to differ, as a bailout package was handed to a couple of major conference schools (Arizona and Wisconsin) to salvage their seasons, while the mid-major schools were left standing at the altar.

      Continue reading »

      College Basketball, March Madness, Television

      Final Four Preview & Picks

      April 3, 2009 /

      The Final Four is set. Heading into the Sweet Sixteen, it looked like we might end up with three or four Big East teams heading to Detroit, but Syracuse was blown out by Oklahoma on Friday and Louisville was upended by Michigan State yesterday. So while the Big East has two teams (UConn and Villanova), both the Big Ten (MSU) and the ACC (North Carolina) are represented.

      What do these four teams have in common?

      They all have a good point guard — North Carolina’s Ty Lawson, Villanova’s Scottie Reynolds, UConn’s A.J. Price and Michigan State’s Kalin Lucas.

      It’s often said that guard play is a key component to NCAA success, and this year’s Final Four supports that thinking. Louisville, Missouri and Oklahoma all had some backcourt issues throughout the season (and the tournament) and it’s no coincidence that they ultimately lost to teams with a great point guard.

      Let’s take a closer look at each of Saturday’s games…

      UCONN VS. MICHIGAN STATE

      Tip-Off: 6:07 PM
      Sagarin Ratings: UConn (94.40), Michigan State (89.39)
      Line: UConn -4

      With Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien and Stanley Robinson, UConn might have the most imposing front line in the country. Thabeet averages 4.3 blocks per game, while Adrien and Robinson are two strong forwards who can score inside and rebound like crazy. A.J. Price anchors the backcourt, but the lightning-quick freshman Kemba Walker is the reason the Huskies survived a scare against Missouri. The Huskies are deep and talented, and other than a few minutes against Purdue and Mizzou, they have looked dominant and focused.

      The wild card with this UConn team is how they handle the recruiting scandal of Nate Miles. It’s going to be interesting to see if the media presses the issue or if Jim Calhoun is successful in pushing off any further inquiry until after the tournament. Will the press take “no comment” as an answer? When a program is under attack, there is usually a “circle the wagons” mentality within a locker room, and depending on the makeup of the roster, it can bring a group of players even closer together.

      On the flip side, the NCAA tournament has been a pleasure for the Michigan State Spartans. I didn’t think they had the firepower to make it to the Elite Eight, much less the Final Four, but this team has something that many others don’t — chemistry. Every player knows his role but doesn’t shy away when he is asked to make a play. They have the Big Ten POY in Kalin Lucas and group of guys willing to the little things like defend and rebound. The Spartans are an interesting matchup for UConn because of 6’10” center Goran Suton. Since he can hit the long ball, he should be able to pull Hasheem Thabeet out away from the basket, limiting his shot blocking. UConn may counter by putting Robinson or Adrien on Suton and letting Thabeet defend one of Michigan State’s forwards that isn’t a good shooter like Raymar Morgan or Draymond Green.

      The Spartans are particularly adept at pulling up in the lane and hitting the 8- to 15-foot jumper which will be crucial if they hope to score consistently on the Huskies. It’s nearly impossible to take it to the rim when Thabeet is in the game, but the middle of the lane is usually pretty open since the Husky defenders are taught to feed their man to Thabeet. Defensively, the Spartans have shown the grit and effort necessary to stay with more talented foes, so Michigan State should be able to keep this one close. I don’t like the line, and I think UConn will ultimately triumph, but this has a good chance to be a game that is nip and tuck down the stretch. It doesn’t hurt that the Spartans will be playing about 75 miles from East Lansing. I’d expect a decent home crowd, though it’s tough to get any kind of home court advantage at the Final Four.

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      College Basketball, March Madness

      Lawson’s toe seems fine, Tar Heels advance

      March 29, 2009 /

      When I filled out my bracket, I felt that North Carolina’s chances were tied to the health of Ty Lawson’s toe. And I still think so.

      The ACC POY had to sit out the ACC tournament to allow the swelling to go down. And this wasn’t just any swelling; Dick Vitale said that the toe was “cartoonishly” swollen (and I think he just made that word up). This is obviously a huge concern for North Carolina.

      He injured the toe on March 6 and played two days later against Duke, scoring 13 points (on 2 of 7 shooting) and dishing out nine assists. He sat out both of North Carolina’s ACC tournament games, and the Tar Heels lost to Florida State. They aren’t the same team without him.

      I think that UNC can get past the first two rounds even if Ty Lawson isn’t 100%. But I’m not sure that they can get by Gonzaga without him playing at a high level. This is probably the biggest “IF” of the entire tournament. If Lawson can play at 90-95%, then the Tar Heels are probably the tournament favorite. If he can’t, then they could easily lose before the Final Four.

      So how do we handle this? Well, for the purposes of a single bracket, I’m going to wager that a “cartoonishly” swollen toe isn’t going to be 90-95% healed in time for the tournament. I don’t particularly like Oklahoma or Syracuse to beat them unless Lawson is out or very limited, so I am going to put the Tar Heels through to the Final Four. If I were in two or more brackets, I’d have one where North Carolina loses in the Final Four semis, and one where they lose to Gonzaga in the Sweet Sixteen. The bottom line is that I’m betting that Lawson’s toe is not good enough for him to play at a high level for six games over the next three weeks.

      If Lawson had been healthy heading into the tournament, I would have picked the Tar Heels over Connecticut for the title. I haven’t seen a guy play this well on a bum toe, so either it wasn’t ever as bad as it seemed, or Lawson has a tremendous ability to play with pain. I’m bummed about my bracket blowing up in my face (thanks, Pitt), but I feel like my original take sans health issues — UNC & UConn — was spot on, but I couldn’t in good conscience pick a team whose best player was gimpy with a bum toe. Simply stated, I guessed wrong on Lawson’s toe.

      I think we’ll see a UNC-UConn final, but Michigan State and Villanova are both playing their best basketball of the season. It should be an interesting Final Four.

      College Basketball, March Madness

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