Tag: March Madness picks (Page 2 of 5)

The Clemson Tigers were impressive last night in their 70-52 rout of UAB. In Monday’s bracket column, I picked Clemson to beat UAB, but to lose in the first round against West Virginia. Since they won so impressively, I decided to take another look at the updated Sagarin and Pomeroy numbers to see if they changed my opinion of the game.

Below is a table with the updated numbers, including updated spreads from World Sports Exchange.

Looking at yesterday’s numbers, West Virginia’s Sagarin advantage dropped from 2.4 to 1.4, while the Pomeroy % dropped from 52.7% to 48.9%, so clearly the Tigers’ win last night had an effect.

This game is now officially a toss-up, but I’m still going to go with West Virginia. Clemson is 0-4 this season against Top 25 Sagarin teams and WVU is #19. Plus, Clemson has to fly to Florida and turn around and play on Thursday at 12:15 PM ET, which is the first game of the day.

However, those of you in pools that reward upsets may want to give Clemson a hard look. Before trouncing UAB last night, the Tigers were poised to pull the upset against North Carolina in the tournament before falling in overtime. I’m worried about the quick turnaround to an early game, but they’re playing good basketball right now and this is a very tight game. Given the seed disparity (5/12), it is probably worth rolling the dice on Clemson in a pool that rewards upsets.

Looking for updated numbers? Click here.

If you’ve read my annual March Madness bracket column or if you are a stathead in general, you’ll know what the title of this post means. If you don’t, check out my column and come back.

Here are the first 36 matchups representing the First Four and the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Sagarin advantage represents the spread in Jeff Sagarin’s predictor ratings. If the number is positive, it means that Team A is the Sagarin favorite. If the number is negative, then it means Team B (and the lower seed) is actually the favorite.

The Pomeroy % represents the chances that Team A will win the game according to Ken Pomeroy’s Pythagorean calculation.

Over the last four years, teams with a 2+ point advantage in Sagarin’s “predictor” rating have won 156 of 198 games (78.7%). Over the last two years, if a team had at least a 65% expected win rate according to Pomeroy’s Pythagorean calculation, they won 61 of 76 games (80.2%).

I’ve also included the spread for the game at the World Sports Exchange. Oftentimes the spread is very close to the Sagarin spread.

I outlined all of my picks in my annual “Need help with your March Madness bracket?” column, but I know that there are more than a few of you out there in pools that emphasize picking upsets by rewarding points based on seed, and that can change things rather significantly.

In addition to the upsets I’ve already outlined — Marquette, Richmond, Old Dominion, Utah St. and Michigan St. — here are a few more to consider:

1. In addition to Old Dominion, pick #9-seeds Tennessee and Illinois. All of the 8/9 games are toss-ups, so we might as well go for that extra point. The only #8-seed that I like a lot is George Mason, so stick with the Patriots.

2. Take all four #12-seeds. I already have Richmond and Utah St. advancing, but there’s a good chance that West Virginia (vs. Clemson?) and Arizona (vs. Memphis) fall as well. ESPN’s Giant Killers blog thinks Memphis has a good shot to upset Arizona, and the Mountaineers are only a 2.4-point Sagarin favorite over Clemson, so it’s not worth taking the favorite.

3. Take Belmont over Wisconsin. I really wanted to make this pick in my official bracket, but the Badgers’ advantage is just outside the 3+ margin needed for confident (~80%) pick. The Bruins are #18 in Pomeroy Pythagorean rating and #27 in Sagarin rating so they are much better than their seed would indicate.

4. In addition to the Spartans, take #10-seeds Florida St. and Penn St. The only #7-seed I really like to advance is Washington, which is this year’s metrics darling. The Seminoles and Nittany Lions are in pick’em games, so we might as well go with the underdogs.

5. In addition to Marquette, take #11-seeds Gonzaga and Missouri. Again, these two teams are slight underdogs, but represent a 5-point bonus, so it’s better to take the bigger seed.

Complete list of first round upsets: Clemson (assuming they beat UAB), Marquette, Tennessee, Memphis, Missouri, Penn St., Illinois, Richmond, Florida St., Old Dominion, Utah St., Belmont, Gonzaga, Michigan St.

In the second round, I’d take Washington over UNC, Georgetown over Purdue, Belmont over Utah St., Gonzaga over BYU and Michigan St. over Florida.

In the Sweet Sixteen, I’d pick Washington over Syracuse, Texas over Duke, Georgetown over Notre Dame and Michigan St. over Gonzaga. Those would be the final upsets that I’d pick in this format. I still think we have a great chance to see three or four #1 seeds in the tournament…but anything can happen. (See how I covered myself there?)