Chances are if you had the opportunity to flip on a San Francisco Giants game in the second half of the 2008 season, you could have sworn that Bengie Molina had changed his number and was now playing the infield.
That’s because at 5’11” and 246 pounds, Pablo Sandoval could easily be the body-double for the 5’11”, 225-pound Molina.
Unless you’re a Giants fan or a true fantasy baseball mega wizard, there’s a good chance you’ve never heard of Sandoval. San Fran signed the 22-year old switch hitter from Carabobo, Venezuela as an undrafted free agent in 2002, but thanks to his performance over the last month of the 2008 season, Sandoval is officially your 2009 ultimate fantasy sleeper.
In 145 major league at bats last season, Sandoval hit a scorching .345 with a .490 slugging percentage and 10 doubles. He also jacked three home runs, knocked in 24 RBI and crossed the plate 24 times in San Fran’s weak offense – the same weak offense that will give him the opportunity to hit fifth in the lineup this year behind the aforementioned Molina.
Not since Matt Williams have the Giants been so excited about a young position player to come through their farm system. Sandoval absolutely raked NL pitching in the final month of the season last year despite taking a free-swinging approach in all of his at bats. (That’s a nice way of saying he swung at everything.)
But despite being such a young, free-swinging hitter, Sandoval didn’t chase many pitches out of the zone, even when pitchers started to figure out that he could hit. He seemed to stay within himself and take what pitchers gave him while rarely having poor at bats and usually making good contact.
Despite the lofty expectations, however, there are plenty of concerns that accompany Sandoval as he embarks on his first full season as a regular. His track record in the minor leagues suggests that his numbers from last year were a fluke and despite his .345 batting average, he only walked a total of four times in 145 at bats.
From a fantasy perspective, he fell nine games shy of qualifying as a catcher in 2009, which means he’ll be lumped in with the much deeper first base class. Ironically, the Giants will most likely start him at third base this season, which would have made him much more valuable because the hot corner is a weak position in terms of fantasy this year.
Will Sandoval hit .345 again if the Giants give him 520 at bats? Probably not, especially if the kid doesn’t learn to take more walks. But is it possible that he could hit .300 with 15 home runs and a slugging percentage that closes in on .440 again? Absolutely.
We’re not suggesting to sell your soul on draft day to select Sandoval, but a great case could be made for taking a flier on him as one of your late round picks – especially if you’re in a keeper league. And if Molina and fellow youngsters Fred Lewis and Travis Ishikawa produce around him in the lineup, there’s a good chance Sandoval could drive in 75-80 RBI and chip in anywhere from 70-75 runs.
The bottom line is – what do you have to lose? If our projections for Sandoval turn out to be unrealistic, then you can dump him early in the season and not lose sleep after selecting him in one of the final rounds of your draft. But if we’re right and he’s set up for a solid year as a first time starter, then Sandoval could be a fantastic late round gem.
