Tag: Fantasy Football (Page 26 of 38)

Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 3



Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

love-em

Philip Rivers has a nice matchup with the Dolphins, who have struggled to stop the pass in each of the first two games. I worry a little bit about the Chargers’ inability to stop the run and how the Dolphins could eat up the clock, but Rivers is still a must-start in most formats this week…Through two weeks, Eli Manning is QB11, and has looked pretty sharp. Steve Smith and Mario Manningham are coming on, so he has some weapons to throw to. This week, he faces a Bucs defense that is 27th against the pass, allowing 282 passing yards and 2.5 pass TD per game…Trent Edwards should have a nice game against the Saints, who are likely to put up a lot of points and aren’t terribly good against the pass…Jake Delhomme actually looks like a pretty good start this week as he faces a Cowboys defense that has given up 303 yards and 1.5 pass TD per game this season. He’s still a shaky start, but if you’re in dire straits or play in a two-QB league, he’s worth a shot…Mark Sanchez has been solid thus far and with a matchup against the 32nd-ranked Tennessee pass defense, he should have a nice day…Jason Campbell didn’t throw a TD last week against the Rams, which is worrisome, but he has another great matchup this week. The Lions have given up eight pass TD through two games.

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Waiver Wire Watch: Week 3

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only players eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire of at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Trent Edwards is available in 57% of ESPN leagues, so if he’s out there, pick him up first before moving onto the rest of the list…

Mark Sanchez (31.5)
The rookie has looked solid in his first two games and fared pretty well against a pretty tough New England defense last week.
Byron Leftwich (4.9)
The Bucs propensity to trail keeps Leftwich throwing a ton throughout the game.
Shaun Hill (10.9)
His defense and running game might prevent him from fulfilling his sleeper status this season.
Chad Pennington (24.6)
Kerry Collins (10.5)
If the Titans’ poor pass defense keeps up, they’ll have to keep throwing in the second half.
Jake Delhomme (26.1)
JaMarcus Russell (10.4)
Marc Bulger (2.8)
Kevin Kolb (0.3)
Has KC this week, so if McNabb doesn’t play, he’s a viable fantasy start.
Jason Campbell (21.9)

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Revisiting the Santonio Holmes Postulate

Last week, I posed a theory that Santonio Holmes puts up much better numbers when the Steelers struggle to run the ball.

Intuitively, this makes sense. The Steelers have always wanted to be a running team, and generally don’t cut the passing game loose unless they’re having real problems on the ground. In the 17 games over the past two-plus seasons where the Steelers have averaged fewer than 4.0 ypc, Holmes has averaged 4.3 receptions for 74 yards and 0.8 TD, which equates to 16.6 fantasy points per game. Last season, eight WRs — Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Antonio Bryant
and Steve Smith — had higher averages.

What does this all mean? Well, when the Steelers have trouble running (i.e. they are unable to rush for 4.0 ypc or more), then Santonio Holmes is a top 10 receiver. This happened in 17 of the Steelers’ last 34 games, and 12 of those 17 games were in 2008 or 2009, so as the Steelers continue to have bigger and bigger problems running the ball, Holmes’s average production should continue to rise.

It’s worth noting that in games where the Steelers rushed for 4.0 ypc or more, Holmes averaged 3.7 receptions for 57 yards and 0.2 TD (or 10.5 fantasy points). These are WR30-WR35 numbers.

In Week 2, the Steelers visited the Bears, who traditionally have a good rush defense. Pittsburgh running backs gained 99 yards on 19 carries, which equates to a healthy 5.2 yards per carry. But a good portion of those yards came on one play, a Rashard Mendenhall 39-yards scamper in the middle of the third quarter. Removing that play, the Steelers rushed for just 3.3 yards per carry.

For his part, Santonio Holmes had a pretty nice day in the receiving game. He caught five passes for 83 yards, but dropped a couple of balls, including a potential TD in the endzone. Still, in PPR leagues, this is a very reasonable 13.3 fantasy points.

Though the YPC doesn’t reflect it, the Steelers had a tough time running the ball on Sunday. And, once again, Holmes thrived. The Steelers play Cincinnati next week, and the Bengals have been pretty stingy against the run thus far, allowing just 3.6 ypc to opposing running backs. If the Steelers can’t get the Parker-Mendenhall-Moore RBBC going in the first half, Holmes should have another good day.

Fantasy Fallout, Week 2: TEs

– Chris Cooley (7-83) caught seven passes for the second consecutive game. He’s the only consistent part of the Washington passing game right now.

– Brent Celek (8-104) has 14 catches through two games and is an integral part of the Eagles’ offense. Start him with confidence.

– I thought Tony Gonzalez’s production would take a hit since he had to change teams and learn a new offense, but given his 12-144-2 production over the first two weeks, I’d say he’s doing just fine.

– With Antonio Bryant out, Kellen Winslow (7-90-1) had a big day. He is the Bucs’ best or second-best receiving option even when Bryant is playing.

– Greg Olsen (3-41) was drilled on what could have been a 20-yard catch and slipped in the endzone on a sure TD catch. His line could have been 5-62-1. Stay with him unless you have a great option on your bench.

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