Tag: fantasy football strategy (Page 8 of 80)

Fantasy Fallout, Week 10: Where Kyle Orton looks like his old self

Denver Broncos starting quarterback Kyle Orton throws against the Kansas City Chiefs in the first quarter in their NFL football game in Denver November 14, 2010. REUTERS/Rick Wilking (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

The Broncos jumped all over the Chiefs, as Kyle Orton (296 yards, 4 TD) hooked up with Brandon Lloyd (6-90-2) for several big plays. Knowshon Moreno finished with 156 yards on 25 touches and scored on a 17-yard catch. With the Chiefs playing from behind the entire game, Jamaal Charles (19 touches, 121 yards, TD) dominated the work in the KC backfield. Thomas Jones (5 touches, 22 yards) never really got it going. In the passing game, Matt Cassel (469 yards, 4 TD) connected with Dwayne Bowe (13-186-2) over and over and over. Many prognosticators were down on Bowe this week due to his matchup with Champ Bailey, but that clearly wasn’t an issue. What’s strange is that Cassel only targeted Tony Moeaki (1-34) three times even though he threw 53 passes.

Bills 14, Lions 12…That’s a fairly stunning score given the offenses and defenses involved. Shaun Hill (323 yards, TD, INT) finished with pretty nice numbers, though he didn’t throw his TD until late in the 4th quarter. Calvin Johnson (10-128-1) continues to dominate, but Jahvid Best‘s numbers (17 carries, 35 yards) are very worrisome considering the Bills own the 32nd-ranked rush defense in the league. Plus, he only had four yards in the passing game, marking the first game in his last six in which he had fewer than 30 yards through the air. For the Bills, Ryan Fitzpatrick (146 yards, TD) was pretty quiet, so as a result Lee Evans (2-52) and Steve Johnson (3-37) were quiet too. Instead, it was the Fred Jackson show. He racked up 170 total yards and scored twice. C.J. Spiller left with a hamstring injury, so look for Jackson to be a good start in the weeks to come.

The Browns and Jets went to overtime, and New York won on a 37-yard TD catch by Santonio Holmes (5-76-1), who continues to come up big in clutch situations. Mark Sanchez (299 yards, 2 TD, INT, rush TD) showed a lot of grit by shaking off a calf injury and dodging a number of sacks that could have snuffed out the Jets’ chances. The Jets promised a 50/50 split in the backfield and they delivered; Shonn Greene (23 touches, 94 yards) and LaDainian Tomlinson (24 touches, 110 yards) split the work but were both heavily involved. For the Browns, Peyton Hillis (23 touches, 109 yards, TD) put up great numbers in a terrible matchup, so he’s entering ‘must-start’ territory. Benjamin Watson (5-74) bounced back from a couple of bad games with a big outing.

The Tennessee debut of Randy Moss (1-24, 4 targets) was not good, but Nate Washington (3-26-1) and Bo Scaife (7-51) benefited from the attention the Dolphins were paying to Moss. Miami had to use all three QBs, so there’s no telling who will be under center in Week 11. Brandon Marshall (3-36) continues to struggle, and while Ronnie Brown scored, he only gained 11 yards on the day. Ricky Williams (12 touches, 60 yards) outplayed him. Anthony Fasano (5-110-1) had his best game of the year.

The HOU/JAX game was fun, and David Garrard (342 yards, 2 TD) continues to play well in good matchups. His second TD came on the game-winning Hail Mary which ricocheted into Mike Thomas‘s hands. Thomas finished with 8-149-1 and benefited from Mike Sims-Walker (3-26) missing big chunks of the game with some sort of leg injury. Thomas continues to play well with Garrard under center. The old Maurice Jones-Drew (26 touches, 123 yards, 2 TD) seems to be back. Meanwhile, Kevin Walter (6-90-1) stepped up for the Texans after being very quiet the last few weeks. He had six targets to Jacoby Jones’s two.

The Cowboys looked a lot better in their first game in the Jason Garrett era. Jon Kitna (327 yards, 3 TD, INT) posted great numbers in a terrible passing matchup, and Dez Bryant (3-104-1) continues to be his favorite target. Miles Austin (2-68-1) caught a TD which saved him from another disappointing day. Jason Witten (1-7) was a non-factor, but Felix Jones (17 touches, 136 yards, TD) had a big day, thanks to his 71-yard TD catch and run. For the Giants, Mario Manningham (10-91-1) and Kevin Boss (5-81-1) stepped up with Steve Smith 2.0 sidelined with a injured pec.

Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 10

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco throws a pass as offensive tackle Michael Oher (R) blocks Buffalo Bills defensive end Spencer Johnson (91) during the second quarter of their NFL football game in Baltimore, Maryland October 24, 2010.   REUTERS/Joe Giza (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances.

As usual, I’ll discuss these players within the context of my weekly positional rankings, so remember — everything is relative.

Joe Flacco (#4) is hot (250+ yds and 2+ TDs in his last three games) and is facing the Falcons’ 26th-ranked pass defense…Last time we saw David Garrard (#6), he was torching the Cowboys to the tune of five TDs (four pass and one rush). The Texans are terrible against the pass, so I think Garrard is in for a big day…Shaun Hill (#10) is back under center for the Lions, and given his play earlier in the season (283 yards, 2.0 TDs in Weeks 2-5), he should be able to post nice numbers against the Bills, who have given up 2.1 pass TDs per game on the season.

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Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 10

TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 13:  Running back Shonn Greene #23 of the New York Jets is tackled by Barrett Ruud #51 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game at Raymond James Stadium on December 13, 2009 in Tampa, Florida.  (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 9 picks fared:

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Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 10

Wondering who to add/drop or whether or not a trade is fair?

I’m here to help.

After checking out our Waiver Wire Watch, you can post your questions here, and unless you say differently, I’m assuming your league has a standard (non-PPR) scoring system.

If you are wondering who to start in a standard scoring league, please wait until later this week (usually Wednesday or Thursday) when I’ll release my official Week 10 rankings.

And if you’re a regular visitor, please take a moment to rate my advice at Fantasy Pros (under Member Rating). I’d appreciate it.

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