Tag: fantasy football strategy (Page 6 of 80)

Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 12

St. Louis Rams quarterback Sam Bradford throws the football in the first quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis on November 21, 2010.  UPI/Bill Greenblatt Photo via Newscom

Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances.

As usual, I’ll discuss these players within the context of my weekly positional rankings, so remember — everything is relative.

I like Shaun Hill again this week given his matchup at home with the Pats’ 31st-ranked defense…Eli Manning is a little short on weapons, but the Jaguars have given up 246 yards and 2.0 pass TDs per game this season and have enough offense to keep the Giants throwing…Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s matchup isn’t as bad as it looks. The Steelers are 22nd against the pass, though they’ve only given up 1.1 TDs per game this season. Still, I think Buffalo’s plan will be to spread Pittsburgh out and throw, throw, throw…Sam Bradford figures to have another solid outing against a Denver defense that has given up an average of 2.0 pass TDs per game on the year.

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Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 12

NEW ORLEANS - OCTOBER 24: Marques Colston  of the New Orleans Saints is tackled by Joe Haden , Scott Fujita  and Eric Barton  of the Cleveland Browns at the Louisiana Superdome on October 24, 2010 in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Browns defeated the Saints 30-17. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 11 picks fared:

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Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 12

Wondering who to add/drop or whether or not a trade is fair?

I’m here to help.

After checking out our Waiver Wire Watch, you can post your questions here, and unless you say differently, I’m assuming your league has a standard (non-PPR) scoring system.

If you are wondering who to start in a standard scoring league, please wait until later this week (Wednesday) when I’ll release my official Week 12 rankings.

And if you’re a regular visitor, please take a moment to rate my advice at Fantasy Pros (under Member Rating). I’d appreciate it.

Also, follow me on Twitter @fantasytips.

Waiver Wire Watch, Week 12: Where Maurice Morris is fantasy relevant once again

MINNEAPOLIS - SEPTEMBER 26: Running back Maurice Morris  of the Detroit Lions carries the ball against the Minnesota Vikings at Mall of America Field on September 26, 2010 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Vikings defeated the Lions 24-10. (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Shaun Hill (8.8)
In his last six full games, Hill has averaged 290 yards and 1.8 TDs, so why is he still available in 91% of ESPN leagues. He has a great matchup this week (NE) and the fantasy playoffs (@TB, @MIA) look pretty good too.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (32.4)
The Bengals weren’t a great matchup for Fitzy, but he shredded them to the tune of 316 yards and four TDs in a big comeback win. He has proven that he’s startable even in bad matchups, but Week 14 (CLE) and Week 16 (NE) look tasty, assuming the weather in Buffalo cooperates (and that’s a BIG assumption).

Josh Freeman (59.1)
Freeman has now thrown two TDs in each of his last three games, and has thrown for at least 212 yards or two TDs in nine of 10 games this season. In other words, he’s been really consistent, and with a favorable fantasy playoff schedule (@WAS, DET, SEA), he’s a nice guy to have on the roster.

Sam Bradford (28.4)
Bradford is posting the best rookie season of any QB since Matt Ryan. He had two more TDs (along with 233 yards) against the Falcons on Sunday, and has a couple of nice matchups (@DEN, @ARI) coming up. And while other QBs will be battling the elements, Bradford will be playing indoors during the entire fantasy playoffs (@NO, KC, SF).

Jon Kitna (11.7)
Kitna has posted back-to-back three-TD games in the last two weeks against a pair of pretty good pass defenses. The next two weeks (NO, @IND) are kind of tough, but Week 15 (WAS) and 16 (@ARI) are tantalizing, assuming Tony Romo is still sidelined.

Matt Cassel (43.8)
After a tremendous 469-yard, four-TD effort in Week 10, Cassel posted a solid 193 yards and two scores against the Cardinals. The schedule for the next two weeks is nice (@SEA, DEN) and he wouldn’t be a terrible start in Week 15.

David Garrard (53.3)
It wasn’t pretty, but Garrard mustered 254 yards and two scores against CLE, though he did turn the ball over four times. He has a terrible matchup this week (@NYG), but can be used in Week 14 (OAK) and Week 16 (WAS) as part of a QBBC.

Matt Hasselbeck (14.3)
He posted good numbers (366 yards, TD) in a bad matchup, and other than a semi-tough matchup against the Panthers pass D in Week 13, his schedule is quite favorable down the stretch.

Bruce Gradkowski (0.9)
He replaced the ineffective Jason Campbell and is likely to be the starter going forward. He has nice matchups in Week 14 (@JAX) and 15 (DEN).

Tyler Thigpen (0.9)
Okay, he looked pretty awful against the Bears, but everyone is struggling against Chicago’s pass defense right now. With OAK, CLE, BUF and DET up in the next five weeks, Thigpen isn’t a bad guy to use in deeper leagues.

Derek Anderson (3.8)
He hasn’t been terrible lately, throwing for one TD in each of the last four games. Other than a Week 15 game in Carolina, the schedule looks pretty nice down the stretch.

Colt McCoy (4.2)
He has accounted for one TD (two pass, one rush) in each of the last three games, but other than a Week 14 trip to Buffalo, the schedule is pretty rough.

Brian St. Pierre (0.1)
Well, the schedule is pretty nice, so there’s that…

Rusty Smith (0.0)
He’s taking over for the Titans at the right time, with the Texans and Jags up the next two weeks. Throw in another date with Houston in Week 15, and Smith could post surprisingly decent numbers down the stretch.

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Fantasy Fallout, Week 11: Where Buffalo continues to be a gold mine of fantasy talent

CINCINNATI - NOVEMBER 21: Ryan Fitzpatrick  of the Buffalo Bills looks to pass the ball during NFL game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on November 21, 2010 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

It was a wild and wacky set of early games, highlighted by the Bills comeback against the Bengals. Ryan Fitzpatrick (316 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs) finished with nice numbers in a bad matchup against a Cincy DT that has been stingy against QBs this season. He has developed into a bona fide Top 10 fantasy QB this season and usually puts up big numbers because the Bills always seem to be playing from behind. Steve Johnson (8-137-3) had another huge day, and now has nine TD catches on the season. Donald Jones (5-70-1) looks like he has taken over Roscoe Parrish‘s role in the slot, so he could be an interesting pickup going forward. Fred Jackson (129 total yards, 2 TDs) was terrific and should be a fine RB2, even when C.J. Spiller returns.

Down in Dallas, the Cowboys’ offense continued to roll, and Jon Kitna (147 yards, 3 TDs, 1 rush TD) has looked good the last two weeks. He has a couple of tough matchups in the next two weeks, but his schedule during the fantasy playoffs is favorable. He didn’t throw for much yardage, which means there weren’t any standout performances by his wide receivers, even though Dez Bryant (3-8-1) and Miles Austin (2-7-2) both scored. Felix Jones gained 86 yards but failed to score, which was disappointing.

News broke on Sunday morning that Clinton Portis (46 total yards) was going to get the start, but he re-injured his hamstring and Keiland Williams (29 touches, 95 yards) wasn’t terribly productive in his place. On the other side of the ball, Randy Moss (0-0) laid another egg while Nate Washington (5-117) took advantage of a suspect Redskins secondary. I think it’s time to sit Moss down until he shows us something. This was a terrific matchup and he did absolutely nothing. He was targeted just three times and almost scored on a long TD but was called for offensive pass interference. Vince Young (165 yards) tore a ligament in his hand and may need surgery. Even if he doesn’t, the Titans have already announced that he lost his starting job due to his behavior during and after the game.

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