Tag: fantasy football strategy (Page 48 of 80)

      Fantasy Fallout: Week 1

      September 14, 2009 /

      Kevin Kolb will take over for Donovan McNabb if he can’t go in Week 2. McNabb apparently has a cracked rib…With Brandon Stokley’s amazing game-winning play, Kyle Orton‘s line (243 yards, TD) is not nearly as good as it looks…Maybe the Detroit O-line isn’t as bad in pass protection as we thought. Mark Stafford threw 37 passes but was only sacked once…Tony Romo‘s stellar performance (353 yards, 3 TD) against a traditionally good defense means that he’s probably any every-week starter going forward…Shaun Hill (209, TD) was solid if unspectacular against the Cardinals and should be a good start going forward. He has a pretty easy schedule this season…Aaron Rodgers (184 yards, TD) had a very poor statistical game before the game-winning 50-yard bomb to Greg Jennings. If the Packers can solidify the protection on the right side of the, Rodgers should settle down…Mark Sanchez (272 yards, TD, INT) looked pretty solid on the road in his NFL debut…Matt Schaub (166 yards, INT) and the rest of the Texans’ offense was pretty brutal.

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      Fantasy Football

      Fantasy Quick-Hitters: Berrian, Bush and more

      September 13, 2009 /

      Boldin looks like a game-time decision. I’m not feeling good about his prospects, so I’d look elsewhere if I had to make a decision now. Steve Breaston is dinged up but should play. Jerheme Urban is a sneaky start if Boldin can’t go. If you can wait until the late games to decide, then it’s worthwhile to start Boldin if he can play.

      Wes Welker listed as questionable for Monday night. He practiced in a limited fashion this week and the feeling seems to be that he’s going to play. It’s a tough call, especially considering how guarded the Pats are about injuries. But the fact that he practiced is a good sign. He should be out there Monday night.

      Moreno and Orton are ready to go against the Bengals. Both are mediocre starts coming off of injuries. Cincinnati’s defense should be a little better than advertised.

      It looks like Bernard Berrian will play. I wouldn’t start him this week unless you’re desperate for WR help. He and Favre haven’t had much time to gel and the Browns defense is better than advertised. (But Berrian just needs to hit on one of those fly routes to have a decent fantasy day.)

      Per Scout.com, Mike Bell to get more carries than Reggie Bush.       A source told Scout.com that Bush may not be totally healthy and may mainly be used in passing situations. Bush is still startable in PPR leagues, but I’d look elsewhere in standard leagues.

      Matt Cassel is out per ESPN.
      Brodie Croyle should get the start and he faces a brutal matchup against the Ravens. Stay away.

      Check back for more updates as kickoff gets closer. I’ll be on Twitter all day (“FantasyTips“) assuming my internet connection holds up.

      Fantasy Football, News

      Fantasy Quick-Hitters: Boldin, Pierre, Berrian and more

      September 11, 2009 /

      Anquan Boldin returned to a limited practice. Boldin said, “It’s only week one. I’d rather sit out game one as opposed to sitting out four or five other games. You just have to use your discretion.” That doesn’t sound good for his prospects of playing in Week 1. Steve Breaston would be first in line to start, but he’s dealing with a sore knee, so Jerheme Urban could potentially eat into Breaston’s snaps.

      Pierre Thomas has been officially ruled out for Week 1. Mike Bell, Mike Bell, Mike Bell. I wrote on Tuesday that Thomas owners (and even non-owners) should grab Bell. He’s a solid RB2/flex play against the hapless Detroit rush defense.

      Cassel is questionable for Week 1. Not a big surprise here. Owners should probably keep Cassel on the bench even if he does play. The Ravens are a bad matchup for any passing game.

      Bernard Berrian and Kevin Walter are both game-time decisions. It would be wise to sit both players even if they do play, assuming that you have a decent option to plug in. It’s tough to battle back from a hamstring injury and be effective right away.

      Kyle Orton will start against the Bengals. It’s not a terrible matchup, but Orton’s preseason performance is not encouraging. Only use him if you’re desperate (or you’re in a 2 QB league). It does help that Brandon Marshall is behaving.

      Raiders name Darren McFadden as their starting RB. He has had a very impressive preseason, so this is just a formality. Even if he didn’t start, he’s going to play a ton of snaps because he is easily the Raiders most explosive player. (And he better perform, because I started him over Santonio Holmes this week!)

      Fantasy Football

      The curious case of Santonio Holmes

      September 11, 2009 /

      All right, a show of hands…how many of you thought that Santonio Holmes was going to start of the 2009 season with a 9-131-1 statline against the Tennessee Titans last night?

      Be honest.

      Holmes finished 2008 (his third season) as fantasy’s WR33, averaging 3.7 catches for 55 yards and 0.3 TD in 15 games. His ADP entering the season was in the 5th round, largely because of the numbers he produced in the playoffs. After a mediocre 2-25-0 start against the Chargers, he posted 2-70-1 against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game and 9-131-1 against the Cardinals in the Super Bowl. (You’re reading that right — Holmes had the exact same line in the Super Bowl as he did last night against the Titans.)

      Heading into the season, I thought Holmes was a nice value in the 6th round, or a decent pick in the 5th if I had to go WR and the other guys — Eddie Royal, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Anthony Gonzalez and Braylon Edwards — were already gone. Holmes just seemed overrated after winning the Super Bowl MVP. After all, this is a guy who finished no better than WR29 in PPR leagues in the last two seasons, and converted just 48% of his targets into catches in 2008. (The league average last season was 57.5%.)

      Holmes’ production seems to be at least partly dependent on how well the Steelers are running the ball. Over the past two-plus seasons (and including last night’s game), Holmes has posted 70-plus receiving yards in 13 games. In those games, the Steelers ran the ball well (4.0 ypc or greater) just three times: versus the Bengals and Rams in 2007 and again against the Bengals in 2008.

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      Fantasy Football

      Digging deeper into Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW)

      September 10, 2009 /

      Yesterday, I posted my DTBWW picks for Week 1 and thought I’d spend a little more time discussing the subject. I’ve used DTBWW quite a bit in the past, and it’s not always by design. Sometimes a defense that I’m counting on doesn’t perform up to snuff, so I need to look elsewhere for production. The idea is that every week, there is usually one or two mediocre or solid defenses on your league’s waiver wire that have a favorable matchup. A mediocre defense with a great matchup is just as good as having a great defense with a medicore matchup.

      Last season, my top weekly DTBWW pick averaged 9.8 points per week, which over the course of the season equates to DT2 or DT3 numbers. My second pick averaged 6.1 points, which obviously isn’t as good, but still solid. The top two picks averaged 7.9 points, or DT6-type numbers. (If you’re wondering what scoring system I’m using, it’s the Antsports High Performance scoring system that awards one point per sack, fumble and interception, two points per safety and six points per defensive/special teams touchdown.)

      The best way to pick a DTBWW candidate is to look for medicore/solid defenses that are facing bad offenses that allow a lot of sacks. Total sacks is the most consistent defensive scoring category week-to-week and it’s also a good indicator of quarterback pressure, which can lead to turnovers and touchdowns. It also helps to pick defenses that are playing at home, as most DTs play better at home than they do on the road.

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      Fantasy Football

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