Take a look at Week 5’s Fantasy Fallout for a summary of last week’s action and our Waiver Wire Watch for ideas about which players to pick up. Still have questions about who to acquire or who to start? Fire away.
Please provide your starting lineup requirements and a brief outline of your league’s scoring system (point per reception? TD-heavy?).
Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only players eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.
Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.
Matt Hasselbeck (54.6) is out there in almost 46% of leagues and when he’s on the field, he’s clearly roster-worthy. He has a great upcoming schedule, so grab him before picking anyone else up on this list:
Jason Campbell (40.1)
After some early season struggles, Campbell is averaging 218 yards and 1.7 TD over the last three games. A nice matchup with the Chiefs awaits.
Shaun Hill (13.4)
Hill is on bye this week and didn’t play particularly well against the Falcons in Week 5. However, he has a tasty matchup with the Texans in Week 7, so if you’re looking for a bye-week fill in, you could do worse.
Matthew Stafford (6.9)
If he can play, which is unlikely considering the Lions have a bye in Week 6 and may decide to give him the extra rest, Stafford has a nice matchup with the Packers this week.
Derek Anderson (3.7)
Marc Bulger (1.3)
Jake Delhomme (14.6)
Chad Henne (1.6)
Josh Johnson (1.4)
Johnson posted 240 yards and 2 TD (along with three INT) against the Eagles. Not bad for a rookie.
Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.
The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.
Tony Romo has a tasty matchup against a Chiefs defense that is 28th in the league against the pass. They have allowed an average of 251 yards and 2.0 TD through the air, so even if Roy Williams is out, Romo should have a nice day…Matt Schaub has a favorable matchup with the Cardinals, who own the league’s 30th-ranked pass defense, yielding 280 yards and 2.3 pass TD through the first three games. Neither defense is stout, so this could turn into a high-scoring affair…Ben Roethlisberger looks like a must-start this week against the Lions. The only worry is that the Steelers get the running game going and Detroit can’t score enough to keep it close…Matt Cassel has his first favorable matchup this season. He faces the Cowboys, who have yielded 256 yards and 1.5 pass TD per game. Dallas got off to a rough start defensively, but has come on the last two weeks. Still this one looks like it could be a high scoring affair, and Cassel will likely have to throw a lot in the second half…Donovan McNabb should start on Sunday against a Bucs defense that has given up nine pass TD in four games…Brett Favre is coming on and he has the Rams this week. It’s possible that Minny will dominate in the ground game, but Favre should throw at least 1-2 TD if St. Louis can muster enough points to keep it somewhat close…Joe Flacco looks like a nice start against the Bengals, who gave up 269 yards and a TD to Derek Anderson and the Browns last week. Cincy’s defense is a little underrated, but Baltimore should be able to move the ball this week…Looking for a sleeper? Shaun Hill (vs. ATL), Seneca Wallace (vs. JAX) and Derek Anderson (@ BUF) all have above average matchups this week.
The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, preferably one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.
Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…
#1 49ers: 0 PA (10) + 5 SK + 1 INT + 3 RET TD + 1 FR = 36 fantasy points
#2 Bengals: 2 SK + 1 INT + 1 FR + 1 RET TD = 10 fp
#3 Bills: 6 SK = 6 fp
Clearly, the 49ers were an awesome pick and they no doubt won a ton of games for fantasy owners this week, whether or not they were following DTBWW. The Bengals didn’t do quite as well from a sack/turnover aspect as I thought they would, but they did have a return TD, so that made for a good day. I didn’t mention it last week, but Indianapolis was an attractive pick too, but it looked like Dwight Freeney was going to be out, so I didn’t pick the Colts over the Bills.
Through three weeks, pick #1 has generated 14.3 fp, pick #2 has averaged 9.0 fp and pick #3 has scored 11.0 fp on average. On the whole, DTBWW has averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game. Those are DT4-type numbers.
Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.
Pick #1: San Francisco 49ers (vs. ATL)
They’re the top defense in the league and they’re available in 70% of ESPN leagues. The Falcons are just a mediocre matchup for SF, but the 49ers are playing really good defense right now and they’re at home this week. If you picked them up last week, stick with them.
Pick #2: Buffalo Bills (vs. CLE)
The Bills were embarrassed against Miami, allowing 38 points and a ton of rushing yards. If this game were in Cleveland, I may not take the Bills here, but they always play pretty tough in Buffalo.
Pick #3: Dallas Cowboys (@ KC)
After a pair of goose eggs to start the season, the Cowboys have bounced back with solid efforts the last two weeks, posting 21 fantasy points against the Panthers and nine against the Broncos last week. In Week 5, they face the Chiefs, who can’t run the ball and don’t have that many options in the passing game.
Bonus pick: Miami (vs. NYJ)
Be sure to check out our Week 4 Fantasy Fallout as well as our Waiver Wire Watch…still have questions? Fire away.
Please provide your league’s starting lineup requirements and scoring system (specifically whether or not it’s a point-per-reception league).
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