Tag: fantasy football strategy (Page 25 of 80)

Randy Moss’s offseason regimen

FOXBORO, MA - JANUARY 10: Randy Moss #81 of the New England Patriots runs a route against Dominique Foxworth #24 of the Baltimore Ravens during the 2010 AFC wild-card playoff game at Gillette Stadium on January 10, 2010 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

I tend to shy away from Randy Moss on draft day, mainly due to the reputation that he earned in Oakland of being a malcontent. But the Raiders will make anyone a little crazy, right?

After watching some video of how he spent his summer, I’m definitely considering taking him in the late first/early second.

Tim Martin, who has trained Moss the past eight years and is the innovator of the workout, believes the Patriots receiver doesn’t get enough credit for how well he’s maintained his body over time, and how hard he’s worked to stay at the top of his game.

“Yeah, he is very talented, but he outworks 99 percent of the NFL,” said Martin, when reached by phone last week. “I heard Jerry Rice talk about how hard Larry Fitzgerald works. I’ve seen his workout … if people take a look at what myself and Randy do, you’ll see a lot of things you don’t see other people doing. I’d put our regimen up against anyone else’s.”

During camp, Moss has had that quick first step and extra gear, particularly on the long bomb routes, as he’s easily beaten many of the younger corners, Darius Butler and Devin McCourty. The past few days during the joint practice sessions with New Orleans, he also made the Saints secondary look slow.

You can see highlights of his workout regimen here.

Since joining the Patriots, Moss has averaged 83-1255-15.7 in three seasons. Even if we throw out his monstrous ’07 campaign (98-1493-23), he has averaged 76-1136-12 over the last two years, and that included playing an entire season with Matt Cassel instead of Tom Brady. Brady returned in ’09 and Moss posted 83-1264-13.

If he’s healthy, and it sure looks like he is, there’s no reason to believe that he’s not capable of putting up similar numbers in 2010. This makes him an intriguing pick in the late first round/early second round as fantasy owners have to decide whether or not to go stud WR or take one of the second- or third-tier RBs that are still there.

2010 Fantasy Football Preview: The Perfect Draft

OAKLAND, CA - JANUARY 03: Zach Miller #80 of the Oakland Raiders catches a touchdown pass in the second quarter against the Baltimore Ravens during an NFL game at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on January 3, 2010 in Oakland, California.  (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve outlined my strategy for the upcoming fantasy football season in the various segments of the 2010 Fantasy Football Preview. In this post, I’ll attempt to pull them all together to provide a (somewhat) coherent strategy that you can, if you so choose, use on draft day.

Below is an overview of the various components. Note: I’m assuming this is a 12-team, TE-required PPR league.

1. Quarterback By Committee (QBBC)
This year, I am recommending that fantasy owners draft Eli Manning in the 7th round and Ben Roethlisberger in the 9th (since it looks like Roger Goodell is going to shorten his suspension to four games and in effect, raise Ben’s fantasy stock). I’m going with 7th/9th because it looks like Eli’s ADP is creeping up as the fantasy preseason wears on. If Eli goes before your pick in the 7th, then go with Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or Carson Palmer, in that order. Their schedules all mesh well with Big Ben’s.

2. Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC)
I’m targeting the Chargers in the 14th, and then using my next pick on the Patriots, Dolphins, Colts or Bears, in that order. If you miss out on the Chargers, there are various other options outlined in the DTBC piece.

3. Draft Zach Miller in the 8th round.
Here’s what I wrote about Miller in our TE preview:

Jason Campbell is in as the starter in Oakland, which means that for the first time, Miller will have a capable QB throwing the ball. Campbell loved throwing it to Chris Cooley in Washington, so Miller projects to have a nice year. He caught 37 passes over his final six games and with a solid QB under center, he should be able to build off of that success.

Of course, if Tony Gonzalez or Brent Celek somehow slip into the 8th, I’d take either over Miller, but barring that, Miller is my man in the 8th.

The rest is fill in the blanks and it largely depends on your draft position and who you like in each round. I put together the table below as an outline. Along the top you’ll see different picks (1-4, 5, 6-7, 8-12) which represents all the picks in the first round. (Note: You can see a bigger version of the table by clicking on it.)

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Will TJ start over Jamaal Charles?

CINCINNATI - DECEMBER 27: Jamaal Charles #25 of the Kansas City Chiefs breaks free from Leon Hall #29 of the Cincinnati Bengals in their NFL game at Paul Brown Stadium December 27, 2009 in Cincinnati, Ohio.    (Photo by John Sommers II/Getty Images)

Those fantasy owners thinking about drafting Jamaal Charles in the second round should take note: The Chiefs released their first depth chart of the preseason and Thomas Jones is listed ahead of Charles.

I just spoke with Anthony Stalter and he said that owners shouldn’t read too much into this. I tend to agree, but this is a 2nd round pick we’re talking about. It’s too early to draft a guy that isn’t even listed first on his team’s depth chart. I still like Charles this year, but even if he gets 50% of the touches, it’s still not going to be enough to justify a second round pick over more defined backfields like Green Bay (Ryan Grant), San Diego (Ryan Matthews) or New Orleans (Pierre Thomas) — teams that are much better offensively and feature better-defined roles.

Charles is still worth a pick in the 3rd or the 4th and could move back into the 2nd if the reports out of camp indicate that he’ll get 60% of the carries. Right now, it looks like a timeshare. Ugh.

This quite perplexing considering Charles’ age (23) and performance down the stretch last season. He averaged 141 total yards and 1.0 TD per game over the last eight games. His is a situation to keep an eye on.

Is Bradshaw passing Jacobs on the depth chart?

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - DECEMBER 06:  Brandon Jacobs #27 and Ahmad Bradshaw #44 of the New York Giants celebrate after Jacobs scored a 74 yard touchdown reception in the third quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at Giants Stadium on December 6, 2009 in East Rutherford, New Jersey.  (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Giants beat writer Mike Garafolo of the The Star-Ledger seems to think so

RB Ahmad Bradshaw (yes, I put him in the starter category because he’s taking all of the first reps with the starters, it seems) continues to look like his rookie self. He went off left edge and moved well, changing direction a few times. RB Brandon Jacobs looked pretty good tonight as well.

Here are the stats from last season:

Jacobs – 224 rushes, 835 yards, 5 TD; 18-184-1
Bradshaw – 163 rushes, 778 yards, 7 TD; 21-201-0

Bradshaw averaged more than a yard more per carry and only finished 40 yards behind Jacobs in total yards despite 58 fewer touches.

How you feel about this situation depends on how you feel about Jacobs’ knees. If he’s healthy, he’ll almost certainly get enough first and second down work and goal line carries to keep Bradshaw from being a bona fide fantasy RB2.

But here we are, about a month away from the season and Bradshaw appears to be pressing Jacobs for the starting job. This could be a coaching ploy to motivate Jacbos (whom Garafolo also said looked good), it could be a way to reduce Jacobs’ workload in the preseason since he’s coming off of knee surgery, or it could be an actual change to the Giants depth chart. For what it’s worth, Tom Coughlin says that the press is “too hung up on that stuff.” (Spoken like a man who doesn’t have a fantasy football draft to prepare for.)

Considering Jacobs is going a full two rounds earlier than Bradshaw (who is a nice value in the 9th), the latter would appear to be a better value given his upside. Regardless, fantasy owners who draft Jacobs in the 6th or the 7th should definitely grab Bradshaw in the 8th as insurance.

Goodell may reduce Big Ben’s suspension to four games — how would this impact his fantasy value?

31 July 2010 - Latrobe, Pennsylvania - Pittsburgh Steelers Quarterback BEN ROETHLISBERGER ( ) signs autographs and jokes with fans during the first practice of the 2010 Pittsburgh Steelers Training Camp held at Saint Vincent College. Photo Credit: Jason L Nelson/AdMedia

Per the USA Today:

The only sure thing is that Roethlisberger will sit out at least the four games. However, the commish likes the way the quarterback has reacted to the suspension. (Click here for Steelers’ schedule)

“He is doing great,” Goodell said. “… I’ve been encouraged by what I have seen. He’s understanding the seriousness of the issue. I think that’s a very positive development.”

For those fantasy owners who made it through my rather extensive QBBC article (or at least read the parts printed in bold), Roethlisberger is an interesting middle- to late-round pick this year. He’s usually underrated because the Steelers are still perceived to be a running team when in recent years they have been far more willing to throw the ball. And now this suspension has depressed his value even further.

But it looks like the commissioner may reduce his suspension from six games to four, and if he does, it would only serve to enhance Roethlisberger’s already appealing fantasy value.

As outlined in the aforementioned QBBC article, Roethlisberger forms a nice platoon with both Eli Manning and Matt Ryan (and, by the way, Joe Flacco). If Goodell reduces his suspension to four games, it means that he would return in Week 6 after the Steelers’ bye. That matchup is against the Browns, and it’s a tasty matchup indeed. In fact, it’s better than any of the matchups of the other QBs in play. The question is, would you want to start him in his first start of the season? Wouldn’t he be rusty?

That’s your call, but I wouldn’t be afraid to start him, not if he’s facing the Browns after he’s had two weeks to take all the snaps in practice. It wouldn’t be that much different than the first game of the season.

The downside of the lowered suspension is that his average draft position is probably going to rise. Still, only the savvy owners are going to jump on a guy that is going to miss four games; In recent years, Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith both went about two rounds later than they should have because they were facing suspensions. Generally speaking, Big Ben is an undervalued 7th or 8th round QB, which means he’ll likely go in the 9th or the 10th.

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