Tag: fantasy football strategy (Page 19 of 80)

Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 2

ATLANTA - DECEMBER 13:  Reggie Bush #25 of the New Orleans Saints is tackled by Kroy Biermann #71, Mike Peterson #53 and Curtis Lofton #50 of the Atlanta Falcons in the first half at Georgia Dome on December 13, 2009 in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 1 picks fared:

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Fantasy Fallout, Week 1: Where offense goes to die and Jamaal Charles doesn’t start

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - SEPTEMBER 13: Mark Sanchez  of the New York Jets lays on the ground after a sack in the fourth quarter by the Baltimore Ravens during their home opener at the New Meadowlands Stadium on September 13, 2010 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images)

For a fantasy recap of Sunday’s action, click here.

Monday night’s tilt between the Ravens/Jets was like watching a monkey hump a football — there were things happening, but nothing much was getting done. Mark Sanchez (74 yards, 0 TD) didn’t turn the ball over, which was the biggest thing that Jon Gruden said he needed to work on this season, but he didn’t make many positive plays, either. This is obviously worrisome for anyone who drafted any of the Jet receivers (namely Santonio Holmes, since he was going the earliest in drafts despite missing the first four games of the season), but things should be easier next week against the Pats mediocre defense. For his part, Dustin Keller (2-13) was targeted five times and had a 33-yard catch called back on a penalty. Generally speaking, I still like him as a mid- to high-end TE2.

As for the running game, it didn’t look too bad considering Baltimore typically hangs its hat on stopping the run. Shonn Greene owners have to be worried since he was out-touched by LaDainian Tomlinson 13-to-6, and just looked out of it after fumbling a couple of times (losing one). It’s clear that the Jets are going to use LT2 a lot this season, and why not? The guy can still play.

On the other side of the ball, Joe Flacco owners have to be encouraged by his yardage (248 yards, INT), though he overthrew a wide-open receiver in the goal-line package in the first half. Still, he looked fairly sharp considering the competition and it’s clear that Anquan Boldin (7-110) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (1-27) were upgrades in the passing game. And let’s not forget about Todd Heap (6-72) who continued his good preseason in Week 1. He almost caught a long TD in the first half and actually out-targeted Boldin 11-to-10. I know owners have fantasy fatigue with Heap (i.e. they’ve been burned before, and they’re not going back), but he’s still just 30 years old and seems healthy for the first time in a long, long time. He had an outstanding leaping catch in the fourth quarter that showed just how good his hands really are.

In the running game, I wouldn’t read too much into Ray Rice‘s struggles (23 touches, 62 yards), but it is disappointing that the Ravens were so intent on using Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain in short yardage. Rice should have a much better game against the Bengals next week.

In the late game, the Chiefs held on to beat the Chargers, despite the fact that Todd Haley still refuses to use Jamaal Charles in a feature-back role. Even if you remove his electric 56-yard TD run (and why would you, really?) Charles still averaged more yards per carry than Thomas Jones (11 carries, 39 yards). Unfortunately, coaches get more stubborn when they win, so don’t expect Haley’s attitude to change until he drops a game or two.

It’s tough to hold Matt Cassel‘s feet to the fire for his lackluster numbers in the passing game (68 yards, TD), but the weather wasn’t good and once the Chiefs got the lead, they didn’t need to throw a whole lot. The lone bright spot in the KC passing game was rookie TE Tony Moeaki (3-21-1), who showed nice hands and athleticism on his four targets. Dwayne Bowe (1-13) and Chris Chambers (1-14) were nearly no-shows.

As for the Chargers, Phillip Rivers (298 yards, 2 TD) was his normally fiery self and posted surprisingly nice numbers in a tough situation. Maclom Floyd (3-48) was a disappointment given his 12 targets, but Legedu Naanee (5-110-1) capitalized on a blown coverage to break free for a 59-yard TD in the first half. I like Naanee, but I wonder how many games he’s going to have like this as the Chargers’ third option in the passing game. Antonio Gates (5-76-1) was his normally dominant self, but KC was focusing on him so much, he only ended up seeing six targets from Rivers.

In the running game, Ryan Mathews (19 carries, 75 yards) owners might be a little concerned, but he did get the lion’s share of the carries. He lost a fumble and only caught one ball, so it doesn’t look like he’s going to be very involved in the passing game. This is going to limit his upside this season.

That about does it for Week 1. Be sure to check out our Waiver Wire Watch and post your roster questions on our Week 2 Q&A, which will be up shortly.

Waiver Wire Watch, Week 2: Meet Brandon Jackson, everyone!

PHILADELPHIA - SEPTEMBER 12: Aaron Rodgers  of the Green Bay Packers hands the ball off to Brandon Jackson  during a game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on September 12, 2010 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

David Garrard (20.4)
Always underrated, Garrard performs much better at home (195 y-40 TD-17 INT in 39 games) than he does on the road (172-26-22 in 33 games). (Nice split find by ESPN, BTW.) With Mike Thomas and Marcedes Lewis emerging, he now has a few weapons in the passing game.

Alex Smith (23.1)
I still like Smith, though I can understand the trepidation after Week 1. If he can’t produce against the Saints, Chiefs and Falcons over the next three weeks, then he probably shouldn’t be on fantasy rosters. He did play well last season, right?

Kyle Orton (35.0)
He has what looks to be a nice matchup this week against SEA (though Alex Smith might argue with that) but then he has a fairly brutal schedule over the next several weeks.

Michael Vick (3.6)
Vick is probably the best option for Kolb owners looking for answers. He was always a pretty good fantasy QB and he proved against the Packers that he still has the wheels to be a major threat in the running game.

Derek Anderson (12.3)
Anderson’s completion percentage in W1 leaves something to be desired, but once he and Fitzy get on the same page, he could be a solid fantasy QB.

Jason Campbell (12.2)
With STL, ARI and HOU up next there’s no reason that Campbell can’t post respectable fantasy numbers.

Matt Hasselbeck (6.7)
Hass was sharp against the 49ers in W1 and has a pretty nice upcoming schedule. Hopefully his back will hold up.

Matt Cassel (12.2)
He only threw for 68 yards, but the Chiefs had the lead for most of the game and conditions were horrible. (However, that didn’t stop Phillip Rivers from throwing for 298-2.)

Shaun Hill (0.0)
Hill proved in San Francisco that he was a capable backup and with all the weapons in Detroit, he should put up decent numbers.

Sam Bradford (14.3)
Bradford has a nice second half schedule, but all rookies have their ups and downs.

Josh Freeman (3.4)
It could be an ugly couple of weeks with Carolina and Pittsburgh coming up.

Matt Moore (3.5)

Jake Delhomme (2.3)

Mark Sanchez (29.2)
Like a lot of people, I’m just not sold on the Sanchize, and he didn’t do anything on Monday night to make us feel any better about him.

Dennis Dixon (2.4)

Trent Edwards (0.8)

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Fantasy Fallout, Week 1: Where undrafted Arian Foster is the top RB of the week

HOUSTON - SEPTEMBER 12: Running back Arian Foster  of the Houston Texans rushes past defensive tackle Daniel Muir  of the Indianapolis Colts in the first quarter during the NFL season opener at Reliant Stadium on September 12, 2010 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)

This season in Fantasy Fallout I’m going to get away from a position-by-position rundown of the studs/duds and do more of a free-wheeling, stream-of-consciousness column that will go up every Monday morning (just in time for you to waste a few minutes at work while you sip your coffee).

Let’s start with arguably the biggest performance of the week. If your fantasy team ran into the one-man buzzsaw otherwise known as Arian Foster (238 total yards, 3 TD), I intimately feel your pain. After touting him all August, I failed to get Foster in any of my six leagues, probably because I was expecting to get him in the 4th or 5th round on draft day. As some sort of punishment, I faced him in two leagues this week. Ouch. In August, his ADP was sitting in the 8th round before Ben Tate‘s injury and skyrocketed into the 3rd, which I thought was a bit early, but his Week 1 performance totally justified that rise. As a direct result, the Texans didn’t need Andre Johnson (3-33) or Owen Daniels (1-9). Hopefully, owners stayed away from Daniels this week (I started Todd Heap — fingers crossed — over him in my auction league), and hopefully his knee reacts well to his first game action.

In that same game, Peyton Manning completed 40 of 57 passes for 443 yards and three TD, and probably won a few fantasy games himself. With that many attempts, Manning was able to target Reggie Wayne (7-99-1), Pierre Garcon (4-74), Austin Collie (10-131-1) and Dallas Clark (11-80-1) at least 10 times each. Anthony Gonzalez (1-12, three targets) was the odd man out. The Matthew Berry-led talk of Wayne’s demise seems a little premature, at least at this point. It’s tough to tell how the Colts’ targets are going to shake out when Manning throws this many time, so we’ll just kick that can down the road. One thing seems certain: Austin Collie is the Colts’ WR3, not Anthony Gonzalez.

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