Tag: fantasy football strategy (Page 18 of 80)

Fantasy Fallout, Week 2: Where you lose the game you think you’ll win and win the game you think you’ll lose

SAN FRANCISCO - SEPTEMBER 20: Frank Gore  of the San Francisco 49ers scores a touchdown against the New Orleans Saints during an NFL game at Candlestick Park on September 20, 2010 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

Funny story (at least to me): I had two games up for grabs last night. In one PPR league, I was up 13 points facing Marques Colston and wasn’t particularly optimistic about my chances given the way the Seahawks shredded the 49er pass defense in Week 1. But Colston was held to 5-67, so my team held on. In my other league, I was trailing by 12 with Drew Brees (254 yards, 2 TDs), Pierre Thomas (103 total yards, 8 catches) and Michael Crabtree (1-32) going, while my opponent only had Frank Gore. Seven catches, 168 yards and two TDs later, I lost by two. Ugh. To make matters worse, I had Jahvid Best sitting on my bench, which serves as the ol’ double kick in the nuts. UGH.

What’s the lesson? Anything can happen in fantasy football. Just when you think you’ve locked a game up, you’ll find a way to lose, and when you’re holding on for dear life, the lead will be just enough.

Oh, and don’t bench Jahvid Best.

But back to the SF/NO game…Alex Smith (275 yards, TD, 2 INTs) looked pretty good at times, but both interceptions were his fault. He threw a few very nice passes to Vernon Davis (4-78, seven targets) and Josh Morgan (6-70, eight targets), but Crabtree only saw three passes come his way. I’d keep him on the bench until he’s starts producing.

For the Saints, Reggie Bush looked great (34 total yards, TD, four catches) before leaving the game with a leg injury, and now ESPN is saying that he’s going to miss at least 6 weeks. Bump up Thomas and put DeShawn Wynn on your radar. Heath Evans might get some extra work as well, but it’s more likely that Sean Payton will elect to feature Devery Henderson (3-28) or Robert Meachem (0-0) more in the passing game to account for Bush’s production there.

Waiver Wire Watch, Week 3: How is Mike Williams (TB) still available in 65% of ESPN leagues?

CHARLOTTE, NC - SEPTEMBER 19: Mike Williams  of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers breaks a tackle on his way to scoring a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers during their game at Bank of America Stadium on September 19, 2010 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only guys eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

Kyle Orton (45.9)
The competition (JAX & SEA) wasn’t the greatest, but Orton absolutely shredded those defenses to the tune of 602 yards and 3 TDs, while throwing just one pick. His upcoming schedule isn’t the greatest, but he has several nice matchups in the second half.

David Garrard (36.0)
His outing against San Diego was rough, but three of his next four games are at home (where he plays well) and the only road game is in Buffalo.

Josh Freeman (5.2)
Freeman has averaged 180 yards and 2.0 TDs in his first two games. There are a few tough matchups coming up (PIT, CIN, NO), but after that, things get a lot easier, and he has two great matchups in Week 15 and Week 16 (DET & SEA).

Alex Smith (9.3)
After a dreadful Week 1, Smith bounced back with a 275 yards and a TD against (with two INTs) against the Saints.

Shaun Hill (0.4)
He threw for 335 yards and 2 TDs against a pretty good Eagles defense. With plenty of weapons to throw to coupled with the Lions’ propensity to play from behind, Hill is a good bet to post solid numbers week in and week out.

Mark Sanchez (22.7)
Which Sanchize is going to show up? The one that threw for a measly 74 yards in Week 1 or the one that tossed 3 TD against the Patriots. Only use Sanchez in good matchups.

Matt Hasselbeck (21.5)
Hass has (try saying that five times fast) always been a decent fantasy player when healthy. This week’s matchup with the Chargers isn’t favorable, but it is at home where the Seahawks seem to thrive.

Sam Bradford (15.0)
A favorable upcoming schedule (WAS, SEA, DET) makes Bradford an interesting play in two-QB leagues.

Bruce Gradkowski (0.0)
It looks like he’ll be starting as news broke last night that Jason Campbell has been demoted to QB3.

Derek Anderson (11.1)

Matt Cassel (11.0)

Jimmy Clausen (0.5)

Ryan Fitzpatrick (0.2)
Trent Edwards is out, Fitzy is in. God help us.

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Fantasy Fallout, Week 2: Where Jahvid Best becomes a must-start

Detroit Lions running back Jahvid Best runs for a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first half of their NFL home opening football game in Detroit, Michigan September 19, 2010. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

I actually had Jahvid Best (232 total yards, 3 TD) on my bench (behind Maurice Jones-Drew and Pierre Thomas, in my defense), figuring that the Eagles DT is generally pretty tough and even though the rookie scored twice in Week 1, the Lions running game struggled against Chicago. Well, I think the kid will be in my starting lineup next week. Not only did he average 4.6 ypc en route to 78 rushing yards, he posted 9-154-1 in the passing game. Let’s just hope he can hold up for the entire season. Brandon Pettigrew (7-108) had eight targets to Tony Scheffler‘s (1-5) four. The other lesson we can take from this game is to always start our key guys against the Lions. Michael Vick (284 yards, 2 TD), LeSean McCoy (16 carries, 120 yards, 3 TD), DeSean Jackson (4-135-1) and Jeremy Maclin (3-26-1) all had nice games.

Michael Turner owners were expecting a big week against a suspect Arizona rush defense, but all they got was 75 yards on nine carries and a groin injury. Jason Snelling picked up where Turner left off and racked up 186 yards and three TD on 29 touches. If Turner’s injury is serious (and it doesn’t sound like it is), Snelling becomes a great waiver wire pickup, but there’s a good chance that Turner’s injury is minor and the Falcons elected to shut him down since the blowout was on. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan bounced back from a rough performance in Week 1 to post 225 passing yards and three TDs. On the other side of the ball, Larry Fitzgerald (7-83) put up decent numbers despite dreadful play from Derek Anderson (161 yards, 2 INT), and Tim Hightower (124 total yards, TD) took advantage of another injury scratch by Chris Wells.

Fantasy-wise, the only truly surprising thing to come out of that Ravens/Bengals tilt was the poor game by Joe Flacco (154 yards, TD, 4 INT). The Patriots shredded the Bengals in Week 1 and Flacco looked pretty solid against a tough Jets’ defense, so everything lined up for a good game. At this point, Flacco is not an every-week starter and is better used as part of a QBBC.

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Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 2

PHILADELPHIA - SEPTEMBER 12: Michael Vick  of the Philadelphia Eagles walks to the sidelines during a game against the Green Bay Packers at Lincoln Financial Field on September 12, 2010 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

Michael Vick showed that he still has the speed to cause headaches and with the Lions on tap, he’s probably going to have a big day… Despite missing much of the preseason due to an ankle injury, Donovan McNabb looked pretty good against the Cowboys, all things considered. This week, he has a terrific matchup with the Texans, who gave up over 400 yards passing to Peyton Manning last week. I wouldn’t expect that kind of production from McNabb, but 250 yards and a TD or two is well within reach…Joe Flacco has a big arm, and he threw for 248 yards against the Jets’ vaunted defense last week. With a much easier matchup against the Bengals coming up, he should have a very nice day…Need a sleeper? Jason Campbell threw for 180 yards and a TD against the Titans last week and even ran for 35 yards. With the Rams coming to town, he’s in line for a solid week…Need another sleeper? How about Josh Freeman, who faces a Panthers defense that struggled mightily against Eli Manning and the Giants last week?

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